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Vegas vs KenPom Week 8

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Captain
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Posted: #251

Sscott,

Tried the filter with excel but not getting what your suggesting.  assuming Row 4? 

 
Prospect
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Posted: #252
not a real computer wiz.  My work blocks this website, is there a backdoor way in to get by the filter??
 
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Posted: #253
Quote Originally Posted by Gordon Gekko:

Sscott,

Tried the filter with excel but not getting what your suggesting.  assuming Row 4? 



Excel typically references cells by a column letter and row number (i.e A1, G6, D4, etc.).  However it is possible you have yours set to the R1C1 reference style which uses numbers for both rows and columns and uses relative references in formulas.  You can tell which you have by selecting the upper left most cell.  Just above that you will either see A1 or R1C1.  If you see the latter, go to your Options and DEselect R1C1 Reference Style.

The reason I put the note about row 4 is because that is the row number in the example formulas I used. 
 
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Posted: #254
sscott999, awesome stuff with Excel. I had been copy and pasting into Excel but doing all the calculation manually. Thanks for the formulas to "pull" the KP line. 

Here's what I see for tomorrow as of now:

Baylor +6 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 1)
Idaho St. +10 (Road, Dog, Toward, Level 3)

Note: I am using the Vegas lines to determine my differential level and my lines for the plays are the current lines on 5dimes. I used the BetOnline lines from 1:48pm as the opening line
 
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Posted: #255

beaver,

Thanks. The excel spreadsheet is it worth using for someone starting out?  I typically look at Sagarin ratings and statfox numbers to compile some stats. I'd like to incorportae Kenpom as well but want to start with the stats showing on the cbb info page.

Thanks again.

 

 

 

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:



JR,

sorry mate! I saw your post on my phone this weekend but wasn't able to go to that link from the phone.  I finally got back to the computer and had a chance to check it out.  Looks like this site is used for comparing teams in a hypothetical matchup.  For instance, I could use this to get a predicted score between wyoming and Kansas.  This is a cool site, but I dont think it will help with what we are doing.  Thanks!

 
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Posted: #256

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Official Sunday Plays:

St Johns +7 (HDT)   L
Washington -8.5 (HFT)
Indiana St +7 (HDT)
Drake -1.5 (HFT)



Looks like 2-2 on the day.

 
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Posted: #257

I don't if KP has updated yet. But I went ahead and looked for tomorrow. Small card. This is what I seen.

Louisville +5 (opened+4/ KP +7) (A, D, T)

Tenn St +6.5 (opened +5/ KP +10) (A, D, T)

Idaho St +10 (opened +8.5/ KP +12) (A, D, T)

To early to check the 65% thing just yet.

 
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Posted: #258
Stiffler,

I missed Louisville and the Baylor play is incorrect as that one opened with Baylor +7 and KP has +8. I put the wrong opening line in my spreadsheet. Damn human error. Tenn St though is +7 on KP, not +10 so that one isn't a play.
 
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Posted: #259

beaver, what time do you post your plays?  i keep missing them.

 
Captain
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Posted: #260
Did you guys flat bet each pick for 1 unit last night or use this bet system?


Home - Fave - Away (59.4%)
Home - Dog - Away (60%)
Road - Fave - Away (60.7%)
Road - Dog - Away (61.5%)

Assign a betting value to each bet according to the percentage of winning:

H-F-A 3/4 Unit
H-D-A 1 unit
R-F-A 1.5 unit
R-D-A 2 unit

 
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Posted: #261

Kelly Criterion Method
Yesterday: 0-2
Since 1/13/2012: 61% or 61%
Total: +237.42

Week 8 Inputs
Starting bankrol: 500.00
Home, Favorite, Away 55.6% or 34
Home, Dog, Away 56.6% or 44
Away, Fav, Away 58.6% or 65
Away, Dog, Away 59.5% or 75
Home, Fav, Towards 52.3 or 0
Home, Dog, Towards 53.3% or 10
Away, Fav, Towards 53.9% or 16
Away, Dog, Towards 54.9% or 26

 
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Posted: #262
Quote Originally Posted by stiffler1705:

I don't if KP has updated yet. But I went ahead and looked for tomorrow. Small card. This is what I seen.

Louisville +5 (opened+4/ KP +7) (A, D, T)

Tenn St +6.5 (opened +5/ KP +10) (A, D, T)

Idaho St +10 (opened +8.5/ KP +12) (A, D, T)

To early to check the 65% thing just yet.



I'm seeing the score for Tenn St. 76-69 on Kenpom. So only a 2 point difference between the opening line and Kenpom.
 
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Posted: #263
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Stiffler,

I missed Louisville and the Baylor play is incorrect as that one opened with Baylor +7 and KP has +8. I put the wrong opening line in my spreadsheet. Damn human error. Tenn St though is +7 on KP, not +10 so that one isn't a play.
Aye fly, I have Baylor +2.5 according to the ratings from Sagarin.
 
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Posted: #264
Quote Originally Posted by flyerlax06:

Stiffler,

I missed Louisville and the Baylor play is incorrect as that one opened with Baylor +7 and KP has +8. I put the wrong opening line in my spreadsheet. Damn human error. Tenn St though is +7 on KP, not +10 so that one isn't a play.

I must of screwed tenn st up. I didn't have Baylor down. 

Looks like only two plays today. 

Idaho St +9.5
Louisville  +4.5 

We'll wait for beaver fan for official word. 

 
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Posted: #265
Quote Originally Posted by Kaka123:

Did you guys flat bet each pick for 1 unit last night or use this bet system?


Home - Fave - Away (59.4%)
Home - Dog - Away (60%)
Road - Fave - Away (60.7%)
Road - Dog - Away (61.5%)

Assign a betting value to each bet according to the percentage of winning:

H-F-A 3/4 Unit
H-D-A 1 unit
R-F-A 1.5 unit
R-D-A 2 unit



Look at the post directly below yours. If you want to use a weighted betting system, Trabs has posted the current dollar amounts based on a $500 bankroll. You can adjust accordingly to match your funding.
 
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Posted: #266
Great week guys.  Everybody is contributing great stuff!  I am going to get caught up on the totals and then post today's plays in a new thread
 
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Posted: #267

Quote Originally Posted by beaverfan23:

Great week guys.  Everybody is contributing great stuff!  I am going to get caught up on the totals and then post today's plays in a new thread

 
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Posted: #268
Official Thursday Plays:

Rider +3.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)  L
La Tech +1 (Home, Dog, Away)  L
Samford +7 (Road, Dog, Toward)  W
NCGreen +15 (Road, Dog, Toward)  W
Oral Roberts -4.5 (Road, Fave, Toward)  L
Minnesota +9.5 (Road, Dog, None)  W
Detroit +1 (Road, Dog, Toward)  W
UL-Laf -7 (Home, Fave, Toward)  L
UL-Mon +2.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)  L
N.Az +7 (Home, Dog, Toward)  L
Montana St +13.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)  L
Portland St +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward)  W
Cal Poly -6 (Road, Fave, Toward)  W
LoyMarymount -2.5 (Road, Fave, Away)  W
ASU -1 (Home, Fave, Toward)  L
 
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Posted: #269
Official Friday Plays:

USF +1.5 (Home, Dog, Toward)  W

 
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Posted: #270
Official Saturday Plays:

W&M +10 (RDT)  L
Iowa +2 (HDT)     W outright
OK +3 (HDT)        W outright
Brown +12.5 (RDT)  W
UL-MOn +6.5 (HDT)  L
Charlotte +5 (HDT)    W
Samford +3 (HDT)     W
BC+9 (HDT)    W outright
NM -3.5 (RFT) W
Miss St +1.5 (HDT) W outright
Umass pk (HFT)  W
MiaOH pk (HDA)  W
TennTech +11 (RDA)  W
Boise St -10.5 (HFT)   L
E. Wash -1.5 (RFN)  L
JMadison +4 (HDT)  L
Penn +1.5  (RDT)   W outright
LaSalle +2 (RDT)  L
IUPUI +7.5 (HDT)  L
LoyMary +10.5 (HDT)  W
Santa Clara +19 (RDN)  W
Detroit +4 (RDN)  L
UL-Laf -10.5  (HFA)  L
TCU +8 (RDA)  W
UC-Riv +6 (HDT)  W outright
Portland +24.5 (RDT)  W
 
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Posted: #271
Official Sunday Plays:

St Johns +7 (HDT)   L
Washington -8.5 (HFT)  W
Indiana St +7 (HDT)  L
Drake -1.5 (HFT)  W
 
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Posted: #272
YTD Record

For the night: 2-2 (50%)

For the week: 35-23 (60%)

For the year: 187-148 (56%)


In depth stats:

Home Teams: 94-82 (53%)
Road Teams: 74-50 (60%)

Favorites: 74-63 (54%)
Dogs:     113-85 (57%)

Line moved toward KP:  127-115 (52%)
Line moved away KP:  47-20 (70%)
 
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Posted: #273
i have the other side on both those games...BOL
 
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Posted: #274
BeaverFan, thank you great stuff............. you were the motivation for me to make my first post here in probably 8 to 10 years.

i love stuff like this and have done analogous stuff on 2 competing forums. 

is that line play away from kenpom investable? i.e. is that using a line you can invest in or is it using the original line? even if using original line, the 70% win wouild still be a very high significant win rate using a fresh line...

i look at prediction tracker for NFL and some of their simple screens for line movements do really well (basically choosing plays based on line movements).. but i don't know how they define the screens exactly or whether they are calculating the win rates in a replicable manner.... sometimes the logic of it suggests that closing lines are not the most efficient predictor which i find quite hard to believe for something liquid like NFL betting. obscure college betting it might be the case.

do you have this highly automated? i'm sure you know this but prediction tracker has tons of stuff like this you could dump into excel. no kenpom if i recall correctly but you could dump both into excel and use lookup function with a tiny bit of prep work..... anyway, i'm sure you know this..

glad to be here and i am always doing things like this (at least scrapping financial, sports and sports betting data to excel and then analyzing it as to winning strategies)... so i'd be willing to help out. 
 
 
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Posted: #275
oops, i guess it couldn't be my first post in 10 years when i joined 4.5 years ago......

how much moderation does this site have? i like to know that going in. thx....
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