Posted:
#76
49. 3 team ML parlay (-110) Warriors Wisconsin Cincy 15.5k to win 14.1k
50. 3 team ML parlay (-110) Minnesota Wisconsin Cincy 11k to win 15k
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Turning your 100k into one mill - the big play board
Posted:
#79
Bankroll $91,000
What else is there to say? Just 2 terrible beats last night. Wiscy up 7 on a bad team with like 4 min left and finds a way to lose. GS, as awful as they played, were up 1 with about 4 min. I remember a fast break opportunity where they settled for a an open Thompson 3 pointer and he misses it. He makes that they probably win. And then they go on to miss every other shot the rest of the game. Curry something like 2-11 from three, and Thompson just as bad. Look how terrible they had to play for Chicago to squeak out a win. Most teams play that bad they lose by 30. That's how you know you made a good bet. Unfortunately, we got hosed.
51. 2 team ML parlay Clippers and Wizards (+120) 10k to win 12k
I like this play a lot for the NBA. The Raptors have everything going against them in this one. The Clippers have owned the Bucks. Coming off a horrible performance where they will be motivated. Also a bad matchup for the Bucks. Bucks can't shoot and like to score inside. That plays into LAC who we know has Jordan in the middle. LAC also just a much better all around team. They should win this game vs a Milwaukee team that has no positives right now besides Giannis who should be neutralized because he operates in the paint where Jordan is.
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Posted:
#80
Hey fluffy , been reading covers for a few years now. Don't post picks. I have a friend who is an exceptional sports gambler. Your bets are very similar to his. ML Parlays , etc. Never seen anyone bet like him until I found you. I was curious to know where you get those higher spreads in the ML parlays. I can't use my buddy's book because he would get cut off if they saw him and I betting the same. I put in what I can with another book but the system really doesn't work unless I can use all his picks. I have to chase games. He obviously doesn't win every game but he's able to get winners that are basically locks to come back from losses , etc. Just some constructive criticism for you. I can tell you definitely know what your doing but your betting too many games. If you could be more disciplined you would win substantial amounts of money every year as my buddy has. You have the right mind set when it comes to the superior teams , home courts , etc. If you could spare some of your time to briefly chat one day that would be great . Thanks
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Posted:
#81
Bankroll $81,000
Mosie, will get to your post later. Huge card today. And I think we should win. As usual, we got fapped in the NBA last night. I'll comment more on NBA later. I'm probably done with the NBA till playoff time. It's just brutal. Moral of the story is teams just don't care and it's ridiculously difficult to anticipate which factors will override others going into most games. For example, take LAC last night. You could argue that coming off a loss vs a team they match up well with they would be Milwaukee. You could also argue they'd have a hangover after their previous game. But all in all, again teams don't care. You can't handicap teams that only put in max effort in 35% of their games.
NCAA is MUCH more profitable. If I just stuck to NCAA, this roll would be close to 200k right now. And I will do that for the next month. NCAA is just much more predictable. Teams try every game. There are patterns to follow.
52. K State -145 5.8k to win 4k
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Posted:
#84
60. 8 point teaser (-130) SMU to -5.5, Arizona to -1, FSU to +2 3.9k to win 3k
61. 8 point teaser (-130) SMU to -5.5, Arizona to -1, NC to +1 3.9k to win 3k
62. 8 point teaser (-130) SMU to -5.5, Arizona to -1, Nevada to 0 3.9k to win 3k
63. 8 point teaser (-130) SMU to -5.5, Arizona to -1, Utah to 0 3.9k to win 3k
Last of the bets today I promise.
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Posted:
#87
64. 3 team ML parlay (-120) Warriors Jazz Wisconsin 10k to win 8k
Would have taken Iowa earlier instead of Utah, but it was an early start and I missed it. I do think the Jazz should win tonight. I mean the Kings have nothing. They don't play defense. They don't shoot well. Utah is very erratic, but I'm hoping they show up tonight. I won't be betting much NBA it's brutal, but I think this is a decent spot.
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Posted:
#88
Not getting my bet in early cost me again. Liked Wisconsin because of the reversion to the mean and senior day. Liked Iowa because Penn State is dreadful on the road vs everyone in the conference. But missed that game early and it's a 20k swing.
Cincy was a decent bet too I overlooked. Didn't like that they were on the road. However, if you think about it UConn would get waxed by then in Cincy or on a neutral court. Kinda unlikely just home court could make up for the mismatch because UConn can't score on Cincy and Cincy has guys who can shoot from the outside and score inside.
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Posted:
#94
No action today. Plenty of action this week. Will post some important futures later however in regards to conference tourney winners. Got 2 I like, 1 I'm mulling over. I picked the 4 big conference tourney winners last year so I'm pretty good at this. This year though honestly is brutal. Last year you had a clear separation between the top teams in the conferences and this year you really don't. ACC has 4 teams that could win. SEC 2 equal teams. Big 12 3 teams. Pac 12 somewhat favors Oregon because they only have to face one of either Zona or UCLA, but from what we've seen those teams are about equal and anyone can beat anyone.
Mosie, if you want to talk some, you can give me your skype or something like that.
Gonna post a little advice below on my general line of thinking when I bet. Mostly when I bet college basketball. I think that's my best sport right now. I'm pretty good with the NFL. Baseball I'm pretty solid I haven't really tracked it though in the past. But it's harder to turn a big profit in baseball because you can never make a huge play on one game alone because of the ridiculous high variance. College football I need to get a lot better, although I do well in bowl season usually. I am very good with futures, and you can make a fortune with those if you know your stuff. That's why I think I can do a lot of damage. I'd rather feel really, really confident about one event and pile on than bet a bunch of different stuff that I only like a moderate amount - if that makes sense.
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Posted:
#95
First gonna reply to a post by double up 4 life. You claim 8 point teasers are dumb. You aren't thinking about this in the correct manner. Let's say, hypothetically, with an 8 point adv you think one team has a 95% chance of covering. And then the other 2 games you got have a 90% chance. The odds of you winning according to your projections is 77%. You know what rate you have to win by to be a winner with the -130 juice for these bets? About 57% to win a small amount.
If you are winning at a 77% clip, and you have to win by 57% to break a profit, you are making a fortune. Now, you're gonna say but hey you don't know a team has a 95% chance of covering. Look, the mark of a really good bettor is someone who can make his own projections based on an accumulation of information. There are certain games where a team is gonna cover 95% if you incorporate all the favorable factors. Obviously, an 8 point adv alone blind is a big help. But the mistake you make is thinking I'm picking these games randomly. I am not. I am carefully picking out games I have info about. I'm not a martyr throwing darts and hoping to get lucky. The reason I can win is because I know which games specifically give you a big advantage.
Furthermore, let's be a little less ambitious. Let's say you are 92% sure of the first outcome. 85% of the second. 80% of the third. You are still winning at a clip of 62.5% percent. You're still a winning bettor. Mathematically, if you know what you're doing, you clearly turn a profit.
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Posted:
#96
The next thing I want to make everyone aware of is that sports betting is all about expected value. If your expected value is positive, you will win.
It's as simple as this. What is your payout if you win? And given that payout, how often do you have to win to make money? This is a concept people just breeze by. I'll see a lot of people who will never want to lay odds. Say you have a future where a team is -300 to win a series. Now this is applicable because you will get this in the playoffs series in NBA and NHL. Let's say you think this team wins 80% of the time. And say you are betting to win 100 dollars. If you make this bet 100 times, you will make 8k in those 80 wins. You will lose 6k in the losses because 300 times 20 is 6k. So your net gain is 2k and your expected value is positive. Moral of the story? If you think a team is gonna win 80% or more of the time you are a winner and you should make it. This is my line of thinking. And a lot of times, you'll get these bets that will really win at a clip of 95%.
Applicable case of this? Well, in hockey last year you had the Capitals laying -300 to the Flyers. The Flyers had no shot to win that series. It's hard to win when the puck is always in the other team's zone and they play better defense and offense than you. That was a winning bet. You'll probably get those odds on a team like the Blackhawks this year in the first round. I can't say that for certain, but that's likely the case and if you do those are really good odds because they're 95% to win probably based on superior players, vastly superior experience, motivation from a first round loss the Blues last year, and reversion to the mean - meaning in this case that the odds are the Hawks aren't losing in the first round of the playoffs 2 years in a row. The fact that they lost last year is actually a GOOD thing. Means if they have a very good looking team in the regular season this year it's highly unlikely to happen again.
That's just one example. I'm gonna give out a future on Purdue later. You're getting 2 to 1 on your money. In my opinion, they will win the Big Ten Tourney at least 45-50% of the time. Now, they got hosed in the draw. Wisconsin got a much better draw avoiding Michigan, the lone dangerous seed in the tourney, and Minnesota and get to play teams like Maryland and Iowa who just don't have much talent. If they had Wisconsin's draw, I'd give them a whopping 80% chance of winning. With the current draw, I think it's closer to 60-65%. Michigan has some talent, but they don't play great defense and have a size disadvantage. Minnesota just doesn't do anything super well. They're just okay on both sides of the ball. So I don't see any advantage they can take to Purdue. And Wisconsin is offensively very challenged and will be dominated by Purdue's athleticism across the board. Will be hard to get easy points inside and when Wiscy doesn't do that they are in big trouble because they don't have any consistent or reliable guard play, perimeter shooting, guys who can create their own shooting etc.
If you really want to be a winner, you have to think in terms of expected value. That's all it comes down to. I'll make 2 more posts a little later regarding predictive factors in outcomes of games why I like to do the ML parlays and how they are FAR more favorable to ATS bets if you pick the games carefully and know your stuff.
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