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Ncaab ATS Streak Breakers for 2013/2014

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Posts: 3174

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:02 PM ET #1201

Leith

i apprec all you post but the odds makers know all that and MORE as its their job to know everything,Its all about the Lines they set as everything else is already figured in

Rippn808

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 443

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:05 PM ET #1202

So whATS the plays tonight cap?

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:06 PM ET #1203

santafeken

I have more back up in this thread than you can

Imagine or understand with a post like that

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:11 PM ET #1204

bringing this over due to page turn

SATURDAYS PLAYS PER STREAK RECORDS

Win Streak records to Not Cover

3-0 (110-73),,,,,4-0,(37-31) ,5-0,(7-17),,no higher W Streaks 1/18

Fsu,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,virginia,,,,,,,,,,Buffalo

Smu,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Mia Ohio,,,,,,,Calif

Tx A&M,,,,,,,,,,W&M,,,,,,,,,,,,,Air Force

Kansas,,,,,,,,,,IPFW,,,,,,,,,,,,,St Bonny

Syrc,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Citadel,,,,,,,,,,,N Ariz

Nova

Utsa

Columb

Ol Dom

Uconn

______________________________________

LOSS STREAK Records TO COVER

0-3 (71-85),,,0-4,(40-37),,,,0-5,(14-19),0-6,(7-8),,0-7 (5-2),,,,0-11(1-0)

Unc,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Ucf,,,,,,,,,,,Rice,,,,,,,,,Marq,,,,St Johns,,,N Dakota

Marsh,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Usc,,,,,,,,,,Cal Full,,,,Umass,,,Penn St

Colorado,,,,,,,,,Butler,,,,,,Semo

Madison,,,,,,,,,,Tcu

East Car,,,,,,,,,,N Mex

Mid Tenn St,,,,Drake

Sdsu,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Davis

Detroit,,,,,,,,,,,,,Ind Purd

ILL

Hawaii

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:11 PM ET #1205

keep an eye out for this if occurs

What i have found that's interesting is of the 0-5 Streak teams that have covered four have been Favorites and all have covered ( 4-0) Possibly down line we may look to 0-5 teams that are listed as favorites to play them to cover their spreads at 4-0 cover = 100%

the 4 teams that were 0-5 and listed as Favorites were

Kansas who Covered on 12/14

St Louis who covered on 12/18

Boise who covered on 12/23

Montana who covered on 1/16

tomorrow we have 3 like teams but they must be favorites to play to cover

4-0 to date

Rice

Cal St Ful

Se Mizz St (semo)

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:14 PM ET #1206

Streak records thru 1/16/14

Win streaks to not cover Records

3-0 to not cover is(110-73) (60%),,4 pend, 1/18

Columbia,, Cuse, Kansas, Nova

4-0 to not cover is 37-31,(54%),3 pend

Vir,,Mia Ohio,,N Mex St..1/18

5-0 to not cover is 7-17 ( 4-5) Last 9 plays

Grn Bay Pheonix 1/17

We play Green Bay to cover and go to 6-0 T Nite

and hopefully a stepping stone into

SATURDAY's 6 plays at 5-0 to cover

due to record at 17-7 ( 71%)

St Bonny,,Air Force,,Cal,,Buffalo,,N Ariz,,Lou tech

6-0 to not cover is 9-8,, (0) Pend

7-0 to not cover is 3-5,,,,(0) Pend

8-0 to not cover is 3-1,,Xavier 1/20

9-0 to not cover is 1-0,,(0) Pend Unlv was the only

team able to reach this level and stopped

10-0 no team has reached this level

Odds Makers finally getting better control

of win streak teams

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:16 PM ET #1207

Loss streaks to Cover Records

Passing most of these plays as % is very low

0-3 to cover 71-84 (46%) Pass

0-4 to cover 40-37 (52%) Pass 7 pending 1/18

N Mex,,CFU,,TCU,,Drake,,davis,,Usc,,IUPUI

0-5 to cover 15-18 (45%) Pass 3 pending 1/18

(Cal Ful,,Rice,,Semo,,1/17 Vir Tch

0-6 to cover 7-8 (47%) Pass 3 pend

Drexel,,Umass,Marquette 1/18

0-7 to cover 5-2,,(71%) Penn St 1/18

looking for a COVER

0-8 to cover 0-2,,,0-Pend

0-9 to cover 0-2,,,0-Pend

0-10 to cover 0-2 0-Pend

0-11 to cover 1-0 1/18 N Dakota 2nd team to reach 0-11 this season.Will odds makers help them to cover as East ILL

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:24 PM ET #1208

Rippn one play t nite

Green bay to cover

Cal St Ful will be a favorite tomorrow out of the 3 posted so they are def a play to cover tomorrow along with all 5-0 streak teams

Buffalo

Cal

Air Force

St Bonny

N Ariz

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:27 PM ET #1209

off to casino best to all what ever you play

Rippn808

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2013

Posts: 443

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 6:28 PM ET #1210

Green bay it is!

lets get!

earlbii

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 606

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 8:37 PM ET #1211

thx stevo

Airtotle23

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2014

Posts: 52

Posted: Jan. 17, 2014 - 11:56 PM ET #1212

Great call on Green Bay

soc22

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 103

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 12:49 AM ET #1213

Boom stevo

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 9:56 AM ET #1214

Morn guys, so nice when all your work pays off that you have been working on for the last 3 months and actually last 4 years with system for ncaab

santafeken

Whats with some guys that just go into another's thread and starts spouting off bull garbage when they have no idea of the time and work another puts into a thread or the knowledge he has accumulated over the years just to talk out his azz

If your sooo smart start your own thread and shut the F***** up

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:08 AM ET #1215

5-0 Streak teams rather than to stop have continued to cover and that record for 2014 is 18-7 and we have 5 today at that level and SYSTEM is looking for a SWEEP and another 5 units in the bank

Not me the SYSTEM and with 4 years of back up i find it hard to ignore

You doubters out there plz don't play them as that way whatever happens your not involved Good luck in your plays and i hope you would wish me well in mine

maineky1972

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2013

Posts: 578

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:09 AM ET #1216

Nice work thanks steve and gl

Wala13

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 288

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:24 AM ET #1217

Stevo1, is today pick : St Bonny, Airforce, Cal, Buffalo, N Arizona, PENN ST, Cal St Ful ?? Please confirm , thanks

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:25 AM ET #1218

Guys i am only playing 5-0 win streak teams to cover at 18-7 =71 %

also any team that has a loss streak at 0-5 but is listed as a Favorite as those 2 combinations are 4-0 this year and we have one team that fits that Cal St Fullerton and another 5 unit play

______________________________________

After that things get dicey and the only other area that sparks my interest is level 3-0 win streaks to not cover at (110-73) = 60% with what is offered today and with 6 plays that's enough,

GL in your decisions

Wala13

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2013

Posts: 288

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:31 AM ET #1219

Stevo1 ,St Bonny, Airforce, Cal, Buffalo, N Arizona, and Cal st Ful is the play ??? thanks

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:32 AM ET #1220

Thread #32 Page 795 posted on 1/3/14

5-0 streak records for last 3 years

so lets put these 5-0 streak records together for last 3 years

5-0 streaks to continue against any point spread placed by odds makers

2010/2011 52% to go to 6-0 seasons end (28-25)

2011/ 2012 59% to go to 6-0 seasons end (27-19)

2012/2013 62 % to go to 6-0 seasons end (34-21)

2013/2014 80 % to go to 6-0 to date (12-3)

Currently 18-7 as of 1/17/14

although 6-4 recently as #'s reflect from 1/3/14

Odds makers have done a better job of late

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:33 AM ET #1221

Wala Pg 1208

Cal St Ful will be a favorite tomorrow out of the 3 posted so they are def a play to cover tomorrow along with all 5-0 streak teams

Buffalo

Cal

Air Force

St Bonny

N Ariz

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:44 AM ET #1222

almost forgot this play

0-7's to cover 5-2,,(71%) Penn St 1/18

looking for a COVER

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 10:55 AM ET #1223

Odds makers have done such a great job in NBA there are no plays

and their records are un believe able in how well they all are balanced

4-0,,,,,16-18

5-0,,,,,10-9

6-0,,,, 4-5

7-0,,,, 2-2

8-0,,,, 1-1

__________________

0-3,,, 28-25

0-4,,, 12-18 slight edge to not cover

0-5,,, 6-12 strong edge to not cover

0-6,,,5-7

0-7,,,,4-3

0-8,,,2-0

If you see any NBA teams reach 0-8 play them to cover at 100%

You will never find that in NCAAF as all 20 year olds want t do is F*****1st and play ball 2nd

stevo1

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 6398

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 11:00 AM ET #1224

Pg 1072/73

Streak Comparisons last 3 years to now

If we apply the 5-0 streaks to cover from last 3 years past we can expect to see a

high from 2013 of 34 covers vs 21 no covers

and if apply records to date we can expect

another 17 covers and 14 no covers to match year 2013

2012 record reflects 27-19 and if apply cur rec 17-7 we get a final out come of 10 covers and 12 no covers

What all this tells me is to be careful with Wagers as appears Odds makers are starting to do a better job stopping this streak level.Naturally time will tell and i may need to readjust this wager level due to recent changes and the 5-4 record of late is now showing

Consequently instead of 10 unit plays on 5-0 streaks to continue i will pull back wager amount to 5 units until i see how this level reacts to odds makers lines in future as past is telling me

Dawgmashers

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2012

Posts: 221

Posted: Jan. 18, 2014 - 11:02 AM ET #1225

stevo as always great stuff

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