someone on their thread wrote about how they lost the UCSD game and they wondered why Michigan keeps getting by in these close games and wins and here is what I wrote him
I hear ya but I did a write up on the Michigan game yesterday and took Michigan the reason they get away with it is, because they played a much stronger schedule than UCSD, now have to give them credit for coming back from 15 down due to 12 missed ft's by Michigan and about 15 to's so Michigan was giving them every chance there, but when you play in so many games that come down to the wire, and you have to learn how to win very close games, thats how you get by, these smaller schools who all have won like 15 in a row, and have dominated, have not had many close games, they are usually well ahead, and when it comes to tourney time those things matter, does not mean they could not have won, but the experience of doing it over and over helps
gl today on your plays brother
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someone on their thread wrote about how they lost the UCSD game and they wondered why Michigan keeps getting by in these close games and wins and here is what I wrote him
I hear ya but I did a write up on the Michigan game yesterday and took Michigan the reason they get away with it is, because they played a much stronger schedule than UCSD, now have to give them credit for coming back from 15 down due to 12 missed ft's by Michigan and about 15 to's so Michigan was giving them every chance there, but when you play in so many games that come down to the wire, and you have to learn how to win very close games, thats how you get by, these smaller schools who all have won like 15 in a row, and have dominated, have not had many close games, they are usually well ahead, and when it comes to tourney time those things matter, does not mean they could not have won, but the experience of doing it over and over helps
also going to go OVER 149 -120 buying down half pt on Grand Canyon/Maryland , GC has been scoring well, but can they vs Maryland? I think Maryland will be able to get theirs , now GC was avg 78 pts a game and giving up 70 on the year, Last 3 games they averaged 87 pts and gave up 74 , now again these mid majors do not play the schedules like the big teams do, but again this is just 1 game, and anything can happen, but I do think Maryland should be able to get close to 80 today, and with the line being 10.5 and 149-150 they are looking at a 81-70 style of game, hence why Marylands TT is 79.5 -125 80.5 -105 I think the ? will be what can GC score today, now they do have some bigger guys, their 7 ft center seems like he does not play much or score but they do have a 6'10 and 6'9 and 6'8 forwards that do, not sure if they have faced any big guys like Maryland has in Reese and Queens , I am hoping both score, I think Maryland should get to their 80, and their bench has finally played well of late and scored some points and that is going to be huge for Maryland if they keep moving on, I think I do favor Maryland here -10 but its so hard , so I feel better going OVER the total here and really am looking at Marylands Team total
OVER 149 -120 1 unit
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also going to go OVER 149 -120 buying down half pt on Grand Canyon/Maryland , GC has been scoring well, but can they vs Maryland? I think Maryland will be able to get theirs , now GC was avg 78 pts a game and giving up 70 on the year, Last 3 games they averaged 87 pts and gave up 74 , now again these mid majors do not play the schedules like the big teams do, but again this is just 1 game, and anything can happen, but I do think Maryland should be able to get close to 80 today, and with the line being 10.5 and 149-150 they are looking at a 81-70 style of game, hence why Marylands TT is 79.5 -125 80.5 -105 I think the ? will be what can GC score today, now they do have some bigger guys, their 7 ft center seems like he does not play much or score but they do have a 6'10 and 6'9 and 6'8 forwards that do, not sure if they have faced any big guys like Maryland has in Reese and Queens , I am hoping both score, I think Maryland should get to their 80, and their bench has finally played well of late and scored some points and that is going to be huge for Maryland if they keep moving on, I think I do favor Maryland here -10 but its so hard , so I feel better going OVER the total here and really am looking at Marylands Team total
I sat put another parlay…. I gave myself a good scolding…. And will be on the next. Need vandy ..teased to 10… for nice hit… st Mary’s not a blow you out type of team in my opinion. One that caught my eye… want your opinion… Houston -5… gonzo had a so so year… what Houston showed me yesterday… is we are playing hard … just don’t see this gonzo team hanging for 5… that means Houston would play hard entire game… and they don’t want that… Houston by 9-12 ish or more…is my opinion… your opinion warranted… no hurry sir. Game tomorrow
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I sat put another parlay…. I gave myself a good scolding…. And will be on the next. Need vandy ..teased to 10… for nice hit… st Mary’s not a blow you out type of team in my opinion. One that caught my eye… want your opinion… Houston -5… gonzo had a so so year… what Houston showed me yesterday… is we are playing hard … just don’t see this gonzo team hanging for 5… that means Houston would play hard entire game… and they don’t want that… Houston by 9-12 ish or more…is my opinion… your opinion warranted… no hurry sir. Game tomorrow
went and added a UNIT to Tenn -4 now so that is a 2 unit game, 240-200 also really like BYU and the over 155 in that game I think BYU could win this game , just wondering where the line will go its wisc-1 now and I am taking Oklahoma +6 vs U Conn Oklahoma on a neutral court is 6-1 STR up and ats , they have been playing well, they won 3 of last 4 and lost their last game to KY by 1 point, matter of fact their last 3 losses were by 1-3 points twice to KY by 1 point and by 3 pts at Ole Miss who I kind of like tomorrow vs N Car :) Oklahoma +6 1.5 units Saturday okla +6 1.5 units Miss st ML 1 unit Over 164.5 Bama/RM 1 unit Saturday Tenn -4 2 units good luck
goldfinger 1964
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Quote Originally Posted by RUM151:
went and added a UNIT to Tenn -4 now so that is a 2 unit game, 240-200 also really like BYU and the over 155 in that game I think BYU could win this game , just wondering where the line will go its wisc-1 now and I am taking Oklahoma +6 vs U Conn Oklahoma on a neutral court is 6-1 STR up and ats , they have been playing well, they won 3 of last 4 and lost their last game to KY by 1 point, matter of fact their last 3 losses were by 1-3 points twice to KY by 1 point and by 3 pts at Ole Miss who I kind of like tomorrow vs N Car :) Oklahoma +6 1.5 units Saturday okla +6 1.5 units Miss st ML 1 unit Over 164.5 Bama/RM 1 unit Saturday Tenn -4 2 units good luck
day 1 6-3 all 3 losses were half unit wagers 1 opinion winner
day 2 2-3 and a Parlay winner so maybe 5-3..lol 1 opinion winner
day 3 12-5 and a Parlay winner and another opinion winner Parlay had Mich and Texas AM on it but did lose 1 Parlay earlier in week
My 5 team Parlay is still alive +1794.00 and a boost.... as ark +5.5 covered need Memphis+3, over 90.5 Bama TT, Oklahoma +6.5. over 159 Illinois ...Bama TT bow like 93.5 or more over illinois now 161, I knew I should have bet the Bama TT then damnit
gl
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day 1 6-3 all 3 losses were half unit wagers 1 opinion winner
day 2 2-3 and a Parlay winner so maybe 5-3..lol 1 opinion winner
day 3 12-5 and a Parlay winner and another opinion winner Parlay had Mich and Texas AM on it but did lose 1 Parlay earlier in week
My 5 team Parlay is still alive +1794.00 and a boost.... as ark +5.5 covered need Memphis+3, over 90.5 Bama TT, Oklahoma +6.5. over 159 Illinois ...Bama TT bow like 93.5 or more over illinois now 161, I knew I should have bet the Bama TT then damnit
Also… teams led by freshman… ie. Okla and Texas. Opinions. I think you are on okla … that Texas game made me leary of that… saw one play with Texas … all 4 guys standing around… shot clock running down… freshman had ball for last 10 seconds… and no one helped… they didn’t cut hard.. screen… they just hoped freshman would make a play… course he dribbled into double team and threw up a wild shot. Concerned Oklahoma may have similar issues if it’s tight late.
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Also… teams led by freshman… ie. Okla and Texas. Opinions. I think you are on okla … that Texas game made me leary of that… saw one play with Texas … all 4 guys standing around… shot clock running down… freshman had ball for last 10 seconds… and no one helped… they didn’t cut hard.. screen… they just hoped freshman would make a play… course he dribbled into double team and threw up a wild shot. Concerned Oklahoma may have similar issues if it’s tight late.
Houston only -5 I just seen that, to me it kind of makes sense, but I would have thought maybe 7 think of this, St Marys has played Gonzaga well and even beaten them , what do you think the line would have been if Houston was playing st Mary?? 8.5 9??? I will be looking into it its a bad day for me and looking into games because I have a business and today I have to drive, my other guy is off, already told the client hope you do not mind if I listen to basketball ?? he said by all means go right ahead with the madness...lol so looks like we will have some talking to do but I'll be leaving about 230 and wont be back till 530-6 Friday traffic but prices are adjusted for that
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@Mskeets
Houston only -5 I just seen that, to me it kind of makes sense, but I would have thought maybe 7 think of this, St Marys has played Gonzaga well and even beaten them , what do you think the line would have been if Houston was playing st Mary?? 8.5 9??? I will be looking into it its a bad day for me and looking into games because I have a business and today I have to drive, my other guy is off, already told the client hope you do not mind if I listen to basketball ?? he said by all means go right ahead with the madness...lol so looks like we will have some talking to do but I'll be leaving about 230 and wont be back till 530-6 Friday traffic but prices are adjusted for that
LIPSCOMB vs Iowa st both these teams avg about the same, and Iowa st is without Gilbert today and Lipsey both important players for Iowa st , and Lipscomb is still without Faulkner , and again this total of 143 looks reachable Iowa st avg 80 pts and gives up 68 and Lipscomb avg 77 pts and give up 68 , both shoot the 3 well, Lipscomb averages like 26 attempts making almost 10 and Iowa st avg's 21 making 8 the line of 14.5 is very tempting , very hard game to handicap the injuries are important for Iowa st , Iowa st is 4-1 OVER on a neutral court, Lipscomb has no records on a neutral court as of now opinions on Lipscomb +15 over 143
Memphis vs Col st well this line moved right away from Memphis being favored to col st as a fav , but it has dropped a half point in the last day or 2 to -1.5 my ? is what Memphis team shows up, they have to stay out of foul trouble , if they do they should be ok, Memphis has won 16 of their last 17 the one loss was at Wichita st by 5 pts , Col st has won their last 10 they can score , they have scored over 80 a few times but it looks like a game in the high 60's they are fine with also, Memphis has 2 guys ? today but Hunter is very important to Memphis, 34 mins 14 pts 4 reb and 4 assist a game they need him and he is doubtful for today ...col st is 20-2 as a favorite and 16-6 ats Memphis is 6-2 STR up as a dog and 6-2 ats I want to take Memphis here, for some reason I just do col st is giving up just 63 pts a game this year, if they can hold Memphis under 70 they can win I just do not think they can, fuck it !! only thing is this is in Seattle
Memphis +2 1.5 units why not if your going to bet an upset go for it
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LIPSCOMB vs Iowa st both these teams avg about the same, and Iowa st is without Gilbert today and Lipsey both important players for Iowa st , and Lipscomb is still without Faulkner , and again this total of 143 looks reachable Iowa st avg 80 pts and gives up 68 and Lipscomb avg 77 pts and give up 68 , both shoot the 3 well, Lipscomb averages like 26 attempts making almost 10 and Iowa st avg's 21 making 8 the line of 14.5 is very tempting , very hard game to handicap the injuries are important for Iowa st , Iowa st is 4-1 OVER on a neutral court, Lipscomb has no records on a neutral court as of now opinions on Lipscomb +15 over 143
Memphis vs Col st well this line moved right away from Memphis being favored to col st as a fav , but it has dropped a half point in the last day or 2 to -1.5 my ? is what Memphis team shows up, they have to stay out of foul trouble , if they do they should be ok, Memphis has won 16 of their last 17 the one loss was at Wichita st by 5 pts , Col st has won their last 10 they can score , they have scored over 80 a few times but it looks like a game in the high 60's they are fine with also, Memphis has 2 guys ? today but Hunter is very important to Memphis, 34 mins 14 pts 4 reb and 4 assist a game they need him and he is doubtful for today ...col st is 20-2 as a favorite and 16-6 ats Memphis is 6-2 STR up as a dog and 6-2 ats I want to take Memphis here, for some reason I just do col st is giving up just 63 pts a game this year, if they can hold Memphis under 70 they can win I just do not think they can, fuck it !! only thing is this is in Seattle
Memphis +2 1.5 units why not if your going to bet an upset go for it
yes there are concerns but of all the teams I think this kid at Oklahomaa (FEARS) is the best they way they came back last name but did lose but down 7 with like 40 sec's left he played great, I do not worry about him, just Oklahoma even when they lose are very close , they are in a lot of close games and I think that helps this time of year
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@Mskeets
yes there are concerns but of all the teams I think this kid at Oklahomaa (FEARS) is the best they way they came back last name but did lose but down 7 with like 40 sec's left he played great, I do not worry about him, just Oklahoma even when they lose are very close , they are in a lot of close games and I think that helps this time of year
also a change to my Oklahoma play it was only 7.00 to buy out at +6 the line moved to +6 so I am going to buy up I feel every half pt or point matters in this game I felt the money would go to U Conn I should have waited +6.5 is -115 I should maybe go to 7 at -130 but I am just going to go with 6.5 again this Okla team has played some very tough teams and been in very close games and I do feel 6.5 is ok hell I'd like to see them win fouls worry me, these ref's help U Conn all the time
Oklahoma +6.5 -115 1.5 units if you follow I might advise waiting and see if this goes up to where you can get 7 at -120
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also a change to my Oklahoma play it was only 7.00 to buy out at +6 the line moved to +6 so I am going to buy up I feel every half pt or point matters in this game I felt the money would go to U Conn I should have waited +6.5 is -115 I should maybe go to 7 at -130 but I am just going to go with 6.5 again this Okla team has played some very tough teams and been in very close games and I do feel 6.5 is ok hell I'd like to see them win fouls worry me, these ref's help U Conn all the time
Oklahoma +6.5 -115 1.5 units if you follow I might advise waiting and see if this goes up to where you can get 7 at -120
Bro, what u smokin this morning, Michigan did NOT turn it over the last 15 minutes against one of the best teams forcing them, what does that have to do with experience? That's YEARS of poor athletic skills of both sides, 2 7" footers who usually throw it away over 40 games, 800 minutes and you're going to tell me this had nothing to do with it? They were LOSING in the last minute...it's extreme luck and statistical variance you won this bet...just be honest and dig deeper bro..
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@RUM151
Bro, what u smokin this morning, Michigan did NOT turn it over the last 15 minutes against one of the best teams forcing them, what does that have to do with experience? That's YEARS of poor athletic skills of both sides, 2 7" footers who usually throw it away over 40 games, 800 minutes and you're going to tell me this had nothing to do with it? They were LOSING in the last minute...it's extreme luck and statistical variance you won this bet...just be honest and dig deeper bro..
Vandy +5.5 -130 1 unit really hoping they play better, if they do this should be a close game
the books made N car a favorite here maybe because they are the popular team, and people are going to bet them if they are +2 or -2 so why not make them -2 even if you believe they should be +2, it happens a lot with oddsmakers, knowing how popular certain teams are, you can get away with making a small dog a small favorite, your Duke's, N car, KY, your teams with long time huge followings, their fans do not care if they are +2 or -2 and yes it happens I would have done the same thing, remember I am just trying to get even action but if I can also hedge the line I will as a line adjuster what ever brings more into the book,
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ok plays till tonight when I get back
Vandy +5.5 -130 1 unit really hoping they play better, if they do this should be a close game
the books made N car a favorite here maybe because they are the popular team, and people are going to bet them if they are +2 or -2 so why not make them -2 even if you believe they should be +2, it happens a lot with oddsmakers, knowing how popular certain teams are, you can get away with making a small dog a small favorite, your Duke's, N car, KY, your teams with long time huge followings, their fans do not care if they are +2 or -2 and yes it happens I would have done the same thing, remember I am just trying to get even action but if I can also hedge the line I will as a line adjuster what ever brings more into the book,
no they had a lot of turnovers in the game in the last 15 minutes I'd say they missed a lot of ft's is that better? very sorry you lost your bet, but if you don't think that playing a tougher schedule, and being involved in more close games does not matter you need to smoke some more we are all lucky when a 3 goes in, how many ft's did Michigan miss in that 15 mins ??? I just looked in the last 5 mins 3 front ends of a 1-1 and a missed layups and a missed tip in , and they did turn it over in the last 15 minutes go read the play by play Michigan makes their ft's they have 6 more points in last 5 minutes there were some plays where they missed 3 shots in same possession 5:28 Mark wolfe turnover
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@Hoyasaxa
no they had a lot of turnovers in the game in the last 15 minutes I'd say they missed a lot of ft's is that better? very sorry you lost your bet, but if you don't think that playing a tougher schedule, and being involved in more close games does not matter you need to smoke some more we are all lucky when a 3 goes in, how many ft's did Michigan miss in that 15 mins ??? I just looked in the last 5 mins 3 front ends of a 1-1 and a missed layups and a missed tip in , and they did turn it over in the last 15 minutes go read the play by play Michigan makes their ft's they have 6 more points in last 5 minutes there were some plays where they missed 3 shots in same possession 5:28 Mark wolfe turnover
they didn't miss a high % over normal..one extra turnover and you lost this bet...ONE, way more predictable...ya didn't cover by 3, 5, 7..please..and many btw laid 2, 2.5 AND LOST
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@RUM151
they didn't miss a high % over normal..one extra turnover and you lost this bet...ONE, way more predictable...ya didn't cover by 3, 5, 7..please..and many btw laid 2, 2.5 AND LOST
you realize you are making my case same could be said for UCSD I said it would be close, but they were in many more close games , and 1 more turnover by UCSD and they never get close, go read the play by play and refresh look at how many missed layups by Michigan in last 6 minutes like 4-5 and missed front ends of a 1-1 4 again sorry you lost you and many others did if you would have covered it would have been very lucky same as Michigan but we don't count luck we count wins 2nd of all buy up to 3 and you wouldn't be so pissed !!!!!
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@Hoyasaxa
you realize you are making my case same could be said for UCSD I said it would be close, but they were in many more close games , and 1 more turnover by UCSD and they never get close, go read the play by play and refresh look at how many missed layups by Michigan in last 6 minutes like 4-5 and missed front ends of a 1-1 4 again sorry you lost you and many others did if you would have covered it would have been very lucky same as Michigan but we don't count luck we count wins 2nd of all buy up to 3 and you wouldn't be so pissed !!!!!
n Car -1 1 unit going with N Car not because I think they should be favored, but I think that game helped them alot, and I think they will ride on momentum here hopefully , I was leaning Ole Miss but going with N Car here
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Miss st ML
Over Lipscomb 143
over 164.5 Alabama
Oklahoma +6.5 1,5 units
over 160 Illinois
Over 149 Maryland
Memphis +2 1.5 units
Vandy+5.5 -130 1 unit
n Car -1 1 unit going with N Car not because I think they should be favored, but I think that game helped them alot, and I think they will ride on momentum here hopefully , I was leaning Ole Miss but going with N Car here
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