L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

Updated FADE stats: - thanks for reminding me Gimmestacks...been working fill in at $300 a day (gotta do those days!) for past 3 wks 3-4 days per so I had been falling behind a little

Best Fade the Favorite situations:

(1) when a team ranked 66th - 90th plays a team ranked 231st - 280th (any spread) = 12 - 31 ATS

(2) when a team ranked 151st - 190th plays a team ranked 331st - 365th (any spread) = 19 - 41 ATS

(3) when a team ranked 66th - 90th has a spread of -16 to -20.5  = 19 - 33 - 2 ATS

I am going to work on tomorrow lines tonight....I might have a day off tomorrow...definitely off Wednesday and maybe the rest of  the week. We will find something. I have a lot of work to do on my Differentials but its going well...Pts scored Avg combined with Pts Allowed combo. Here is a taste:

1 Vanderbilt  103 (+30) 73
2 NC State  100.8(+31) 69.8
3 USC        100.5(+20.5)80
4 S Florida  100 (+18.4) 81.6
5 LSU         98.6 (+20) 78.6
6 St John's  98.5 (+27) 71.5
7 Louisville  97.2 (+27.6) 69.6
8 Illinois    95.8 (+26.6) 69.2
8 Georgia   95.8 (+30.8) 65.0
10 Saint Louis 95.6 (+27.0) 68.6
11 Iowa St  95.5 (+33.2) 62.3
12 Murray St 94.4 (+17.2) 77.2
12 Colorado  94.4 (+12.6) 81.8
14 Florida St 94.0 (+21.4) 72.6
14 Gonzaga 94.0 (+36.2) 57.8
16 Duke  93.7 (+36.5) 57.2
17 Kent St  93.6 (+8.2) 85.4
18 Auburn  93.4 (+23.8) 69.6
19 SMU     93.3 (+20.1) 73.2
20 UNLV    93.4 (+9.4) 84.0

Only 2 Plays Monday:

Gonzaga -3.5 x 1U

George Mason -6.5 x 5U ($400)  ...lots of game left but up by 11 pts 

For the rest of the season, I will be betting mostly on:

- specific strong trends I chart

- point differential that does not jive with the line like George Mason tonight vs Ohio

- matchups where who you played makes a difference

- strong fades 

GL  on your plays @Last2thirst 

Last I checked...they are up by 40+ so I think its safe to declare this  

George Mason -6.5 x 5U ($400)  

@Last2thirst

cash money

Only 2 Plays Monday:

Gonzaga -3.5 x 1U   

George Mason -6.5 x 5U ($400)  

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Season Record:

44 - 29  ATS (Data Plays)  > +15.5 Units gain ($1200+)

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....excited for my point differential chart that is growing ....will take the week to get all 365 teams inputted but it will save me a lot of time and fish out some great lines like tonight

Point Differential I remember last year, really came into play once I figured it out in January-Feb so the rest of the season, I can start earlier. I will just update my numbers every 2 weeks and try to find some great edges

11:am Take Stoney Brook +2.5 x HALF U  .... ML is +120 but I will take the points and expect a tight game likely

- also like the total and think its too low > OVER 144.5 x HALF U

-point differential is wide and I think by game time, they will become the favorite which hits strongly in this rank correlation as they are both similar in the 280th - 290th percentile

- Stoney Brook scores 4.7 more pts than they allow (+4.7)

- Bethune scores only 1 pt higher as an avg than SB, BUT they give  up a lot more for a negative point differ (-12.7) since they avg giving up 90 pts a game 

I am working on point differential for every game and will make suggestions all day since I need to complete my point differential chart for all 365 teams this week anyway 

Play #2 - Liberty Over 134.5 x Half U

-could play the point differential here with Liberty having a +18 pt difference 

- Towson avgs 60 pts a game and allows 61 ....that won't cut it for offensive output for Liberty who score 89 per game and only allow 71.5 pts on defense....expect Towson to crank up their point total to 65 - 70 pts in this game and Liberty to score 75-85 .....take the low on those two and you have 140 pts scored in this game 

Play #3 - Delaware +2 x 1U

-wrong team favored both on rank and point differential ....Delaware is +13.4 pts on point differential ....on a tight line, that is too much in my opinion

Play #4 - Iowa St -6 x  1U

- Iowa St point differential (updated from last night) >  93.0 OFF (+26.8) 66.2

- Creighton pales in comparison and should give up 83-86 pts to Iowa St > 77.6 OFF  (+7.2) 70.4  

- I can see Creighton score 66 - 70 pts in a competitive game 

I initially liked the total, but realize on back to back, scoring should come down 5-10 pts in total

@Last2thirst

Play #5  Kansas - Syracuse Under 145.5 x HALF U

- Syracuse with a top 10 pts against...they used to be #1

- Kansas with a top 20 defense and they only score 76-77 per game

-I see a 72 - 67 type of game here ....maybe 74-70

........games back to back tend to mean lower scoring than the night before 

I have a BIG PLAY OF THE DAY coming up....just finalizing my data....SOON!

EARLY PLAY OF THE DAY:  Northern Iowa -7 x 2.5U

-I want to smash this but I won a 5U play yesterday and a taper is in order since what I am going to lay out is too good to be true, THEREFORE, it just might cack!!

N. Iowa is ranked 87th

-top 7 defense only allowing 59 pts a game

- they score over 73 per game

-they are killer at home but this is a neutral site game

- point diff = +13 

Loy Chicago started the year with a top 70 ranking and drifted to 129th now...

-they give up more points than they score

- they score less than Northern Iowa 

-they have a negative point differential 

**** N.IOWA just beat NIU by 13 pts and..... Loy Chic LOST to NIU recently by 17 pts and only scored 59 pts !!

Anything can happen on a neutral court but, I will take my shot at this 

Tuesday Pick Mill:

11:am Take Stoney Brook +2.5 x HALF U  .... ML is +120 but I will take the points and expect a tight game likely

 - also like the total and think its too low > OVER 144.5 x HALF U  

Play #2 - Liberty Over 134.5 x Half U  

Play #3 - Delaware +2 x 1U  

Play #4 - Iowa St -6 x  1U  

Play #5  Kansas - Syracuse Under 145.5 x HALF U .... 59 pts scored in first half

EARLY PLAY OF THE DAY:  Northern Iowa -7 x 2.5U   ....up 28 - 11 but with plenty of game left 

@Last2thirst

GL  on your plays @Last2thirst 

If Vegas is going to keep giving me great lines to chew on....I will keep betting.

Take Loyola Marymount -3.5 x 1.5 U  vs Ohio who got beat up by my George Mason for 5 U yesterday

- Ohio has a -13.5 pt differential between pts scored and pts allowed

-LM scores more than them and have a top 50 defense and a +9.5 point differential

- 23 pt differential between these two teams should equate to a -9 to -12 line in my opinion but its Ohio being given a higher rank to start the season is skewing this I believe

USC - 6 x HALF U 

-coming into yesterday's game, they were avg a 100 pts on offense and Seton Hall at 75 

Solid capping day L2t, thanks for sharing BOL  

Ok.... we have a classic duel here with Houston vs Tennessee with the #1 defense pts allowed vs the #13 pts allowed and about 5 pts per game between the two 

Since its a back to back...and neutral court, I am more apt to go with the stronger offensive team if they are taking pts and they are ....Tenn with a much much stronger pts per game 

HUNCH PARLAY PLAY ....not data perse .... Tennessee + 3 and Under 133.5 x HALF U

I think the score will be 67- 65 in the end....or lower

Having fun not being at work and also not there tomorrow but I get my massage and chiropractor after....so I am pushing myself today Colonel ....thanks for the well wishes 

@Last2thirst

Next Play: South Dakota St +2.5 x 1U and HALF U ML +120

-wrong team favored here

- SDST only gives up 68 pts a game and they score just as much as Utah Valley 

- Utah Valley give up far more points than they score 

Point differential is tipping toward South Dak St by +14 so they are good value in my eyes for the upset or close loss!

-they would definitely make a great TEASER connector teased up 5 pts !  ....this should be a tight game until late when SDST defense takes over in the second half