L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

Ding Ding 

Gonna be selective for a while because I am switching philosophy to Conference Play and data from last year.....soon

Pressing hard on a team that is way better overall....played almost as tough of a schedule, and has also a very strong home court and crowd when they have a decent team and this year's team might make the NCAAB tourney!

I should be ready by tomorrow morning to have all 365 teams in a correlation chart alphabetically showing SOS/FT rank and 3PT rank and a factor calculated averaging these 3 key factors in a game....I will be adding defense against 3pt and OFF rebounding after to round out my chart for CONFERENCE PLAY .....look for a new thread soon. There are already conference play games happening, but I will officially do the switch on Dec 26-27th

By the way, VEGAS is setting trap lines all over the place relating to my Non Conference correlation results....lots of lines that fall into the FADE category and games are ending up close to that line or wins for the dog.... I will only go for FADES when I see ALL stats line tilted in their favour as well as head to head if there is a history

Wyoming -1.5 (BET365) x 5U  

-8 - 0 at home (6-4 ATS) facing a 4-6 ATS team on the road for only their second game and a poorer record

- Wyoming 88 pts per game avg and only allow 73 against

- GC with only a +7 pt point differential vs Wyoming +15  (GC 74.1 pts per game offense/Wyo 88.1)

- GC ranked #317th for 3 pts shot success..... but do well on the charity stripe .....I expect they will try to get ahead in this game but Wyoming can protect their hoop well and will have the crowd behind them

Wish you the best 

L. 2

Thanks Spottie. Happy Holidays and put your feet up and enjoy some  +  over the holidays 

L2T.......

Wyoming cannot make a shot and GRAND C cannot miss..... it happens

Lots of game left 

 Of course you the same L2 

That one stung. Couldnt have gone any worse or better for the wrong team lmao. GL rest of the weekend L2, always appreciate your posts etc 

Thanks Sausage.... I seem to be running into flat teams lately no matter what the analytics say

Working on my stats and will only throw out the occasional play until I am ready...Merry Xmas

12pm games - what my newly completed master analytics spreadsheet says: (using SOS/3PT/FT and Point Differential correlation)

Simulated picks only today and this week ! (lets see how it produces before Conference Play)

BOSTON -5 

COLGATE +27.5 <<< great value here - superior 3PT/FT ....reasonably tough schedule (#158) vs Florida with #5 schedule who will shoot better in this game BUT will get counter punched enough to cover as they do not have to play stellar defense in this one vs this opponent

Weird.... I forgot to post my 1 pm...thought I did (had it ready/was working on it and unfortunately refreshed this page and lost it before I went out for a walk)

-I made the NC STATE play -7.5 2U and 1U for Over 147.5 << not for official record but parlays with Buffalo Bills -10.5 and Over 40.5 ....as well as Patriots +3.5 parlay

1pm games: 

NC State -7.5  - absolute potential for a curb stomp here

-#2 best offensive team in my data for 3pt (#21) and Free Throw (#37) and have faced the #21st toughest schedule so far so that tells you how good they actually are !!

-Ole Miss with 75 pts per game and 10 pts less point differential and 3PT/FT ranks of #106 and #128

Quinn -Hofstra Over 146.5 

- both teams with decently strong schedules and both with real good FT/3PT numbers especially HOFSTRA 

-both with positive point differential

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I won't be able to post my 2 pm suggestions in simulation due to lack of time but will have 3pm games ready to consider and just point out which 2pm games would have been posted based on my extensive improved analytics spreadsheet

2:30 pm game:  -what my newly completed master analytics spreadsheet says: (using SOS/3PT/FT and Point Differential correlation)

VMI-RADFORD UNDER 158 

-crazy number because, the best rank that either team has for SOS /3PT or FT is only around 250th and because VMI is only 68 pts offense per game and Radford is 74..... up their output by 6-10 pts each and you still only get a number around the total......I don't think they will all of a sudden shine 

3:00 pm game:  -what my newly minted extensive master spreadsheet says:

- simulation suggestions testing out its effectiveness!

Alabama AM +2.5 - home dog looks good here with better 3 pt shooting and much improved last 5 games that should continue

-both have the same overall rank (Chatta #230/Alab AM #229)

Cornell -6.5 - another big time curb stomp coming here....

-Cornell well over 85 per game offense avg/ Albany under 65 pts

-Cornell #11 three pt/181st FT > Albany is 320th/363 in those categories 

-Cornell's SOS = 131st vs 277th for Albany

3pm continued....

UNC ASHEVILLE +13 - upset potential here or keep it within spread

- decent defense...and 26th best 3pt rate facing a UAB team who played badly last game and ranked 340th for 3pt and only 242nd for FT ....just one above UNCAsh

St Louis -35 << do-able as they are one of the very best 3pt/Free throw teams in the nations facing a 3x harder schedule than NH and there is already a 30+ point differential on offensive output and 37.7 on OFF/DEF point differential

-this one should get ugly and NH terrible 3 pt shooting will not help them

4pm games- favorite simulation game beside NC St one today is.....

Sam Houston +5 !!!/ would even take them ML @ +180 / also UNDER 153 

-NMST with 47th best defense and SH is in the top 60 for 3pt defense and FG defense 

-SH with far superior 3PT/FT stats and I honestly see NMST being aware of this and playing tight defense and using full clock on offense to not allow SH to get out on fast break where their shooting numbers would take over the game 

Monday Play #1/2 - OVER Georgia 170.5 x 1U  and W.Georgia +35 x HALF U

-WG scores 72.3 avg and have a very good 3 pt shooting rank and decent FT ...they give up 82 pts per game avg 

-Georgia is the highest scoring team in NCAAB and since its a rivalry locally, I can see them scoring 95-105 likely and W.Georgia getting their 70 pts or more

American-Virginia Over 156.5 x 1U

Under Boston College 145.5 x HALF U

Grand Canyon Under 169.5 x 2U

Parlay > IUPUI +25.5 with OVER GC 169.5 x HALF U

L2T......

Positive mojo to you bro 

Go L2 Go 

Thanks. Pure analytics...no guessing for me so, teams I play and their opponents just have to be CLOSE to true form and I am fine more times than not.

Analytics spreadsheet is monstrous and valuable ....worth putting the time into it and is almost update fully, organized for ease of use in comparison and about to add one more edge to it (TEAM DEFENSE rank to assist with totals a little better at times)

Positive mojo 

@Last2thirst

Let’s find some Piñata basketball teams to bet against!!

Positive vibes for sure!!

Felix.... I am ready for Conference Play and will be on some doggies for sure and totals