L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

@Last2thirst

Looking likely my parlay is going to cover my 2U bet..... what blows me away with this game, GC is really tough defensively at home and tonight facing a very weak team, they don't care and giving up shots that they normally defend.

This total got down to near 165.5 and then rose the rest of the evening.....weird to see that unless someone knows they are going to put in a half ass effort on defense

COACH SAID: Play fricken defense!! We look like a pinata team! ....and they are now

Right Felix? 

Ahhhhhh....love it...there they are playing gritty now finally

What a goofy game....now they are laying off and not playing defense ..... this one will go over due to FTs now because GC let them back in with 3 quick buckets

GC is fouling with a 14 pt lead and less than 40 seconds left? This game is fixed 

What utter bullshittttttt..... GC winding down clock and UIPUI FOULS with 1 second left for no reason other than to put this over!!

Shocked I got that play .... 169 final total

4 - 1 today

DATA TIME: - observations and best teams recently (just finished an update in my chart and about to add team defense)

Good Teams on the Rise Recently: - strong improvements in POINT DIFFERENTIAL from teams not noticed as much as the big top teams

- Texas AM (was heading to negative but now reversing strongly)

- Texas

-Tennessee (shook off rust and striding now)

- St Louis  - overpowering offense over many teams

- Seton Hall

- Pittsburgh ... was negative PD and now solidly positive

- Oregon ...was negative and now positive

-Oklahoma St.

-Navy ...can really score and now positive PD

-Northwestern

-NC State

-Nebraska

-Minnesota - big improvement from negative pt diff to +7 now 

-Marist

-Murray St

-Miami

-LSU

-IOWA !! wow lately  > offense and defensive improvement every week in stats despite tougher schedule

-Hofstra - sneaky good 

-Georgia...no one talking about them... highest scoring and only 70 pts per game defense  (#52 SOS )

-Fordham...play nails basketball! gritty

-California ...absolute sleeper team !

-Buffalo ...sneaky good

-Bowling Green...even more so than Buffalo / tough defense too

-Baylor ...starting to grip now 

-Arizona ...overpowering team really peaking right now!!

Who is considered Top 25 but over-rated perhaps in big picture or is faltering or has suspect stats:

Duke - great talent no doubt BUT ... 111th three point shooting / 227th Free Throw ranking 

UCONN - great defense/organization BUT.... #137th three point shooting / 255th Free Throw rank 

FLORIDA - have found a way to press a button when they need it but that will change in conference play and I expect them to fade with poor shooting and film scouting them. Ugly stats > #343rd three point shooting / 186th Free Throw rank

Legit:

BYU - has beaten 5 strong teams and only lost to UCONN by 2 (were leading most of game)

-top 100 stats across the board and good size/team speed and talent

GONZAGA - excellent defense and talent /strong shooting stats / Mark Few may have the right kind of team to really surprise instead of being a frontrunner darling..... they have played their toughest schedule  (#1-5 toughest SOS all season) in over a decade and it will be good for them come tourney time 

HOUSTON - can play any style that is required including shutdown B-ball if needed but this team is the best shooting team in 5+ years and I think they, like UCONN, have one of the best coaches and systems put together + player makeup to work well together

IOWA ST - razor good defense and 3pt shooting (#3) and over 90pts per game /< 65 per given up....will it last? They always start fast 

LOUISVILLE - have an Alabama - UCONN type hybrid of a team....mix of strong IQ/talented and competitive players that can light your up and play good defense system or take you one on one and make the play

MICHIGAN!! - man, they are pounding on good teams on the road or at home and a joy to watch 

Strong Teams with Houston Model of Toughness/One on One Battlers /Strong Defense/Play Clock But Execute Style of Play This Year:

Kansas

North Carolina

Michigan St

Clemson

Seton Hall

Tennessee

Iowa/Kentucky/Purdue - all leaning to that style of play it seems 

Under rated Top 20 Dark Horse Contenders:

California - 12th three point rank / 38th Free Throw % made /beat UCLA by 8 and have Louisville coming up 

Colorado St - #1 three point / #2 Free Throw team but quite hot and cold shooting recently....if they figure things out, look out

Indiana - great stats for shooting and strong defense and have some gritty put the ball in their hands players like Kawahi Leonard types

NC State - coach said in the off season he was thrilled with his recruiting/transfers and its showing in stats/style of play with #19 three point/ good defense and #35 rank at the foul line

UCLA - great coach...excellent stats from 3pt/FT and play excellent defense but with fast transition to offense

Lowest scoring teams:  PD = Point Differential

Rider          55.6  (-20.2 PD)

ULL            57.5  (-10.2 PD)

New Haven 57.6  (-12.5 PD)

Canisius     58.0  (-11.7 PD)

Delaware St 58.1  (-16.7 PD)

Maine        58.4   (-12.2 PD)

Maryl.Shore 58.5 (-16.0 PD)

Jackson St  60.8  (-28.0 PD)

NC Central 61.1  (-22.5 PD)

Bryant       61.5  (-10.9 PD)

Coppin St 61.9  (-26.2 PD)

TexAMCC  62.0 (-12.6 PD)

Low Scoring with good defense/low PD: - tap these sometimes for UNDERS 

Brown   > 66.8 OFF /68.2 DEF

Canisius >  58.0/69.7

Jacksonville St  > 65.5/69.4

Louisiana  > 57.5/69.7

Lou Tech  > 64.3 / 62.6

Maine  >  58.4/ 70.2

N.Iowa >  69.2 / 60.0

N.Texas > 66.5/ 65.2

Presbyterian > 62.7/69.7

Towson  > 65.7/ 67.3

UTArlington > 66.4/67.0

UTEP   > 63.4 /71.7

UCIrvine > 68.0 / 68.4 

CRUSHERS! - widest Point Differential (PD)

Michigan  29.3 - #3 toughest schedule / crushed Gonzaga by 50+ on neutral court

Georgia  27.8 - #63 SOS 

Iowa St   27.4  - #10 SOS 

Gonzaga  24.8 - 2nd toughest SOS 

Duke 24.6  - despite 5th toughest schedule

Louisville 23.4 - #19 SOS 

St. Louis  23.4 - #97 SOS 

Arizona 22.6 -  #4 SOS 

@Last2thirst

 L2T - good stuff with the info you share - it is appreciated!

Question - your thoughts on Vandy?  I did not see them listed anywhere above and I think they have a real shot to win the SEC this year.

Thanks and Good Fortune! 

Merry xmas Xdoge 

-Vandy is leaking oil a little...dropped their PD quite a bit in the last few weeks but still strong though

-maybe it has to do with SOS up to #30 now

-PD = +21.9 

-PTs per game OFF used to be around Georgia's level and higher but now down to 94.1

-3 pt rank = 95th / FT = 58th 

-they weren't mentioned because I see a slide for a little while but lets see how they do in SEC play regularly

Tuesday Value Plays according to updated analytics: - I almost never hunch bet!

Play #1 - Binghampton +11.5 x HALF U ...only 5 pts separate them on offense output and 1 pt on defense ..shooting stats are ok for Binghampton ....expect Army to win by 5-10 but not much more?

-only stat that could factor in here is team defense. .... Army 195th / Binghamton 294th

Play #2 - Wisc GB ML +150 x HALF U 

-might just be the stronger team here ....way better shooting stats and defense than Campbell and you can see this in the points differential

-swimming against the grain here with road record vs home record, BUT this is the time coaches demand more with conference play coming up 

-defensive stats are similar but going with much stronger shooting team

Play #3 - Kentucky Over 154.5 x 1U

- no reason to play defensively here vs the #357th ranked defense who can shoot lights out and are the #1 Free Throw team and it might be good for Kentucky to put up lots of shots like they would have to vs the type of SEC teams they face in that style of play

-lowest output by Bellarmine is 70 pts vs a weak team and when they play better teams, they rise to the occasion and score more

-I project Bellarmine at 70-75 final pts and Kentucky 90 or more...and when they have faced a similar lower 100 team, Kentucky has scored over 100pts 2x 

Still going through each matchup but want to get these out....

Play #4 - UCF Over 162.5 x HALF U

-pretty confident this one will go over with 2 very strong scoring/shooting teams who last year produced 194 pts without OT!!

- UCF with 76th SOS /FAU#141 so they are used to playing well vs good teams for offensive output

-defenses are ranked #162 for UCF and #122 for FAU with weaker schedule so I expect each team to hit their ppg average and perhaps more given the in-state rivalry

Play #5 - Ohio St Over 152.5 x HALF U

-Buckeyes have been playing a lot of good teams lately and have a strong SOS and shooting stats...they love to score at home and have shown to pound teams ranked 250th - 365th

-expect them to score over 90

-Grambling with a good SOS and good offensive stats....they should get 65 pts without any issue and might surprise....I would take them +30 but what made me pause was the fact of how the Buckeyes can really put pts on the board and have covered all big spreads vs much weaker opponents 

I took my first ML dog bet and lost miserably....HALF U so I will double up and take this one for 1U

Play #6 Lindenwood +3.5 x 1U and 1U ML +140 @ Missouri St

-MST is 5- 2 home but their rank is lower than Lindenwood 239th vs 200th for LW

-LW with 9pts per game better offensive output and 6 pts lower Point Differential

-much better shooting stats too and LW defense is 61st best vs FG/ 62 best three point...and cherry on top, they are the #17 best offensive rebounding team

Looking for more and maybe 1 more dog to double up if I don't get this one 

I just did a comparison of UCLA and their opponent today and I am wondering why this line is so low?

UCLA -24.5 x 1U

-Mick Cronin is flat out one of the best coaches in college and I think him and his team are pissed off for not making top 25 but USC is there and so they have taken it out on their opponents in the last 2 games and expect the same here

- UCRiver has been beaten by almost 50 pts to a team as good or slightly better than UCLA

-UCLA has had 195 pts and 167 pts scored in the past couple of games 

-they are #10 three point team and #76 on the line....have played the 31st toughest schedule while their opponent is at 296th

-I originally was leaning to UCLA  OVER 147.5 but when I see UCRiver play a good team, they struggle  to score over 63 pts so what if UCLA beats them comprehensively 90 - 55? I expect UCLA to score their usual 88-100 pts when they play a weak team

- if I see UCRiver keeping close in an open game, I will take the TOTAL in-game so long as its under 155 

-UCLA has the 58th best defense  while their opponent is #296th

Idaho Under 150.5 x HALF U

-when I look at analytical data, its clear that Idaho is a far superior shooting team but for some reason, they have issues on the road and it appears that they find it harder to go over this total in that scenario....Cal Baker is a average shooting team who prefer using clock and do not hit many 3 pt shots 

Its kind of weird how the last 10 days have provided me with many opps on teams with better offenses vs their opponent and then they come out flat shooting in the first half ....and their home opponents go on a shooting tear!! 

3 - 1 so far and maybe 4- 1 +2U  with Buckeyes having to go over 152.5 ....I need 8 pts scored over 3 minutes to book that one

Lindenwood play looks dead however 

Harvard-STJ Over 146 x 1U

Harvard +26 x HALF U

-some interesting things about this matchup....STJ were thought to be an aggressive defensive team preseason and they have played a tough schedule with only flashes of that rep being shown

- against Harvard, they may try but Harvard is a solid outside shooting team who like to use full clock and get fouled....they are Top 10 in FTs...and STJ is one of the worst foul offenders as they are 322nd for pts allowed at the FT line

- I can see Harvard scoring 66-74 pts.....STJ will score their usual 80-90 pts so playing the total is I think the better option vs the number as they just might decide to tighten up even more meaning Harvard may only hit 60-65 ...and them 82-85 pts

-Harvard has a good defense but their competition is ranked only 225th so far vs STJ's at 13th SOS