L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

6 - 6 on the day and exactly EVEN....but I feel beat up haha...with topsy turvy second halves but I guess that is part of the thrill? 

This game will define my day > . Gonzaga -2 x 1U 

Hey Felix, I was on a walk with my wife watching the score of Lou Tech and thinking I had a good shot on that one going UNDER but meh....and the UNC Wilm cover is a surprise because they were only up by 5 with 3 minutes left when I left 

Yeah i thought we were gonna cash both…

Take a split on those I suppose  

Your efforts and insight are truly appreciated!!

Thanks Felix, you are a good mate and I enjoy smashing some 'pinata plays' with you through baseball, football and now hoops....its fun 

Haha, loved going against the PIñata pitchers… haha. 

Let’s keep it going!!!

Thursday:

Play #1 St Bonnaventure -10.5 x 1U

-ECU defense is horrid in comparison and St Bonn scores more pts

-defense difference is 15 pts alone differential in St. Bonn's favour

-very good rank correlation results and spread positive at this number for the rank 

Looking into Vanderbilt now as well....

@Last2thirst

Oregon - Creighton > lean Creighton due to SOS at 18th vs Oregon 55th strength of schedule

- Creighton has Oregon by 2.5 pts in point differential

- this should be a tight game 

Play #2 - Creighton Under 152.5 x HALF U 

I can see a score of 76 - 73 in this one 

I just bought out this play for the reason that I lost my Lou Tech-Indiana St UNDER play yesterday..... I said that game would be tight and it was....BUT resulting in many fouls in the last few minutes pumping up the score by easily 5- 10 pts, so that may happen in this one.... I am going to have to remember that angle when I see an anticipated tight game and playing a total

Over St Mary's VTECH 142.5 x HALF U

-both teams score over 80 pts easily against most opponents and they can play defense but this should be within 7 pts the whole way and I can see one team trying to foul to stay close, as well as some 3 pt shots being thrown up much more in the second half

TCU +11.5 x 1U

- only less than 1 pt separate these two teams in point differential

- TCU has a strong defense and can score 

- Florida has pedigree and much better SOS at #10 toughest so far vs TCU at #74

- the correlation or ranks say this is a very strong fade and the spread is only .500 for the favorite

Late Play I like:

Stanford -2 x HALF U

....I am watching the Total as well....I think since its in California, Stanford will have the crowd and they can score as an offense and should get 75-80 pts.... Minny is the x-factor

Just 1 Play to start:

Under SE Louisiana 142 x 1.5 U

-two teams that don't score much but give up points....I got a feeling that will cancel each other out and they might score 65-70 each but not much more

@Last2thirst

This game is just grinding....wow

halt in play every 10-15 seconds!

looks like going over damn 

the fouls and threes killer 

I am capping well but strange shit is happening on some plays like looking great in first HALF...cruising with only 60 pts score, then....atypical stuff happening second half so it tells me to put the brakes on for a bit so I will ( I had KENTUCKY Under likely with 3 minutes left and 18 pts under the total a few days ago and they decided to jack up 3 pters every 5 seconds they had the ball and it went over by a half pt....very unlucky) ...gonna just work on capping charts for a bit and will post something in here when I just take a breather for 4, 24 or 48 hrs...I will know

We were home and cooled possible with 40 seconds to go when the score was at 134 and then Gardiner hit that 3 pt shot which allowed them to continue to four and have a chance....they miss and likely SE Lou kills clock to end the game or just turn it over with 15 seconds left and up by 10 pts....but nope, thats gambling

Might have something later....enjoying some great Football today on the last week 

Late Play of the Day I checked out:

UC Irvine -2 x 1U

-positive correlation both in rank comparison and line

-great defense by UCIRv

-both teams have similar strength of schedule

-both teams score around 66 pts but UCIRV's defense is 10 pts better 

-100+ ranks separate them

>>> if you think it will be tight, consider them moneyline instead with another team and do some parlays and take SJST winning margin to win by +1-2 pts maybe as a hedge and it should pay +700 likely

Play #2 Belmont -3 x HALF U

- impressive point differential and only allowing 66 pts per game and they score more than Charleston who give up more points than they score, but a SOS that has been tougher by over 100 rank positions

- I like the UNDER here as well but their could be OT in this one

2 - 0 Today +1.5 U >> still working on my chart which when completed, it will save me and find me great situations since it will be organized in a way to spend less time sifting 

I will have to update it once every 10-14 days but it will be beneficial to do so as I see some big swings changing their numbers

I do not want a lot of games and so many choices and miss the best ones...I had 2 monster days a week ago or so because I had a large amount of time and was fresh to put in the comparisons...now things are gonna get harder for me for about 3 weeks but after we will be in Conference play and that is when you want to be ready for sure!!

Monday:

Play #1 - Temple-Villanova Over 149.5 x 2U

- Villanova scores over 80 pts/ Temple scores 79 per game..... Villa with the stronger defense and SOS so I expect the 66 that they allow to come up to at least 68-72 pts....I have seen Temple come back from being down 10-15 pts with the 3pt and they are very much an uptempo scoring team if you look at other games they play

- Expect Villa to score over 80 pts and Temple to get the minimum of 66-68 and that should be more than enough to cover

- I predict an 85-71 score as their past matches show over 150 a year when the makeup of the teams allow it and these two teams are poor defending the 3pt and give up buckets easily at times

I have one more play that I might smash if I see  the right stats....everything else lines up with the matchup

When I get my SOS correlated with pts FOR and pts AGAINST along with rank correlations, I am going to have the advantage in the evening for the next day.....but it takes time to get it right and I need data so probably will be down around the middle or 8th-10th of December and we can start snapping at these night lines because, by the morning, many totals and sides are 3-5 pts changed on good ones

Play #2 - UAB -3.5 x 1U 

Parlay > UAB ML 1.62 x McNesse ML 1.31 = pays +112  x 3U ( $240) 

-I see more value in the parlay being a road team 

- could they get into a back door cover.....with home crowd, refs etc....YES...but I will risk 1U on the -3.5, but I don't see UAB losing for this reason

- UAB scores over 82 pts per game and their SOS is 137th ....their defense is 10pts lower than they score which is amazing and what you look for with a favorite

- MTSU though....scores less pts than UAB and gives up over 81pts per game with just a slightly stronger SOS of 100th 

McNeese makes a good parlay partner because of their Pts for and against vs Incarnate > 90th SOS and 6 - 1 (4-1 ATS) with 9 pts more than they allow .....while Incarnate allow 11 pts more than they score which is less than what McNeese scores.....big difference in ranking as well

I like these two plays a lot and will not likely dilute my results and just focus on making some money here and the Villa game  (HOPEFULLY) 

@Last2thirst