L2Thirst NCAAB NonConf Season Picks

BC trend of the day they are 3-16 if they are a favorite of -9+ if they will be an away dog next game.  BC is at Geo Tech next 

Ya, maybe....but they are going to have to convert defense into offense somehow against a decent offensive team 

Here is B.C.'s line in my 365 team spreadsheet: (all updated to today)

Bos College (#171) 70.4 (+2.9) 67.5 Point Diff.

3pt#342

SOS #201

FT#247

PPGA #37

Nice little stat there Spottie... 

Winthrop cannot make a shot..UGH !!

Plenty of Top 20 ranked team games in Non Conference action....which ones have the BEST fade or positive correlations?

Now going to break down these games one by one tonight and decide before bed or tomorrow morning after some line changes...

Fades: 

Alcorn #336 @ Ole Miss #65 -28.5

-correlation of rank zones is only 23 - 34 ATS for the favorite

-for a team with Ole Miss rank level, they are only 14 - 21 - 1 ATS with a spread of -26 to -30.5

Alcorn PD > Alcorn St (#336) 65.5 (-26.9) 92.4  ...BUT this was accomplished with the 61st toughest SOS so far and they still produced the 59th best 3 point shooting success....2x as good as Ole Miss with an SOS of 53rd toughest schedule

HALF U stab at +28.5 for ALCORN....going to fish for a higher line tomorrow

-Alcorn has played at least a half a dozen strong teams as good or better than Ole Miss and only in 2 games did their 3 pt shooting let them down, so I like the odds here they stay within range

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Prairie View #339 vs Texas AM #57  -30.5

-teams correlating to a 23 -34 ATS for the favorite in my spreadsheet

-teams with TexasAM ranking with a spread of -30.5 are 14 - 21 - 1 ATS

-PV can score....TEXASAM as well can bury teams BUT .....PV scored 90 in their last game to a higher ranked hot LSU team and only lost by 14 points playing on the road so they have moxie and I like that 

PV +30.5 x 1U ..... they have played 3 strong teams like TexAM or better and in all 3 games they are 3- 0 ATS covering a line of +30.5!

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Alabama St #289 @ Mississippi St #81  -19.5

-this rank correlation for the favorite is 28 - 34 ATS and 26 - 39 ATS trying to cover a spread of -19.5

-Alabama St has had the 130th SOS and have some nice shooting stats but their PPGA is poor ranked 337th

-don't like the fact they have lost to 3 good teams with a line of -20 to -22...... BUT Miss St PD is only +2 pts while Alabama St PD is only -12 points . Miss St had the 53 toughest SOS while A-St is #130th

-Still lean Alabama St but want this line to grow

Best Correlational Situations for Non Conf games in my next post....

Houston Christian #300 @ Iowa St #3  -36.5

- Strong positive spread result with this number for Top 20 teams (30 - 20 ATS) for any spread over -35 

- 21-17 ATS for these rank groups for favorite

- bad matchup for Hou Christian defending the 3 pt and not being a scoring team unless they face a poor defense, and Iowa St is a strong defense

- gonna let the line brew....leaning to Iowa St

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JMAD #218  @  Arkansas #18   - 25

-Arkansas with 18th toughest SOS / JMAD at #247 SOS and have only played a couple teams as high as 65-100th ranking and lost to those two teams by 14 and 16 points

-Arkansas does everything well on both sides of the ball ..... 7 - 0 at home 

- this line feels about right so going to let it brew ....but teams with these ranks favor the -25 team laying the points with a 22 - 12 ATS record for Top 20 teams and the spread record is 16 - 15 

- going to let the line brew

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Play of the Day for me: 

Iowa -31.5 x 2U 

-#1 defense against points ..... playing the #333 team who lost 47 - 110 to UCONN who are not as good of a shooting team as Iowa but as good of a defense....UMASS Lowell with a 300+ SOS and lost to Wake Forest by 34 pts as well...... I find it hard to believe they will score 60 pts and more than likely, will be lucky to hit 55. I fully expect Iowa to score over 90 pts

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#262 Bethune @ Oklahoma St  #39   - 18.5

-this rank group correlation is 26 - 21 ATS for the favorite over two seasons and the spread is 23 - 15 ATS at that number for teams ranked #21 - 40th over 2 seasons now of Non Conference play

-Bethune is #317th points against and have a wide -16.7 PD but with a decent tough schedule ranked #118th SOS 

-Bethune got torched by 5 strong teams and stayed within 10 pts of two other strong ones ..... 

-Okie St with a +14.9 PD and avg over 90 pts per game over the 82nd toughest schedule so far

.......has the potential for a blowout but Okie St lets teams hang around...might be a buyer on a lowered line

There may be some other nice lines that work out, but few like these fall into the positive correlation for me.....so going to look at Conference matchups now

I think I have let the Iowa St line brew enough....

Iowa St -33.5 x 1U  (down 3 pts from last night)

1- 3 in NON CONF action today but the PV/TexAM cover I am doubly happy because it brought me home over $500 profit in local parlays with Alabama Over and Roma soccer win and Over + Manhattan in basketball.....that ticket for $20 paid nicely

I think its time to lay off NON CONF for a bit unless I see something in error on a TOTAL maybe.....focusing on CONFERENCE PLAY...might come in this thread if there is some tourney play or a great total

Nebraska -31 x 1U

-this is a dominant team and have always been strong at home ....NH is lousy and cannot shoot.....if Clemson can bet this team by 50, I see no issue here