USC up to #4 in pts per game and Troy went to #48 > https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-points-per-game < I use this site a lot to confirm some plays and also points against https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/opponent-points-per-game
How the hell do they only score 58 in the first half??? Strange shit going on haha
Games I like before lines go....good correlations
Cal Baptist -12 vs Grambling x 1U
Purdue -4.5 vs Texas Tech x Half U
New Mexico St -6 x 1U ...very tough home court and they almost beat New Mexico at home!
Duke -39.5 x HALF U ...they tend to stomp on teams every year for the first 5-7 games and low scoring opponent
SIU Edward -3 x 1U ....superior ranking over Air Force who has issues scoring sometimes
Gotta run.. GL
After a 5 - 10 (-2U) stretch over 2 days that rocked me,
I got back on track with a 4 - 1 day yesterday (+2 U)
Overall now: 36 - 25 (+10.5 Units) ...back to being stinky in Kings so looking for some redemption today or tomorrow for a big day...will try to share what I think are the best situations
Play #1 - very positive spread stats > Fairfield -1.5 x HALF U
- they only allow 70 pts per game, have a better overall rank and score about the same number of pts as LeMoyne who GIVES UP almost 12 more pts per game on defense when compared to Fairfield
- this should be a tight ball game but will go with better defense here
Play #2 - Providence-Penn St Over 163.5 x 2U
-very confident with this number.... Penn St is consistent in scoring 80 pts vs a middle team or stronger team whether the team is offensive or defensive in spirit
-PROVIDENCE flat out does not play defense ranked over 300th for points allowed and they are in the Top 10 in scoring pts per game
- I would not be shocked also if this goes to OT as they are closely matched in my opinion
Play #3 - Nevada-UCSB Over 146.5 x 1U for now ....if Providence game is looking good, I will boost my Units on this so long as it doesn't go higher than 148
- both teams allow between 75- 79 pts per game
-both teams are ranked in the top 130 for scoring.... UCSB in the 70's rank and Nevada under 130th
-last year they had a tight game for almost 155 pts
- I expect the road scoring team to pressure the home team and the home team to respond in kind and again, this one will likely involve free throws boosting the total late and OVER
Play #1 Sunday - Duke -39.5 x 1.5 U
- they routinely overpower weak teams and Howard is playing back to back nights (Howard beat Niagara today) vs a powerhouse....no chance unless Duke starts bench
- Duke just beat Niagara 100-42 the other night and Howard beat Niagra by 10 today
- I see 102 - 56 type of score tomorrow
Wish I would have done my point differential chart sooner ...... its my ace in the hole for the season along with ranking correlations . I am in process of completing, but I just did the comparison between Clemson - Georgia
WRONG TEAM is favored!
Play #2 - Georgia +1.5 x 1U
-95.8 pts per game vs 65 pts against = +30.8
-82.2 pts per game with Clemson with 60 pts against = +22.2
Differential is too big to ignore!
I think this DUKE line is getting ahead of itself at -43.5 ..... almost want to MIDDIE this line if it hits 43.5 and it just did .......
-Howard has a decent differential in only -2.0 for OFF output vs DEF stoppage
- Duke tends to score 95-100 .... so lets give them 92-95 with a decent Howard defense and also, I have asked the question in AI if totals go down on back to back nights in basketball and here is the response:
"No, scoring averages generally decrease in basketball games when a team plays on the second night of a back-to-back set. This is primarily due to player fatigue, and the effect is often more pronounced if travel is involved. "
My thinking is, Howard will score 55- 60 (they got 67 on Missouri)....if they only go 51-55, even if Duke scores 95.....the middie is there!
Hunch Play > HOWARD +43.5 x HALF U for a MIDDIE!!......TOTAL has just dropped 2 pts in the last 15 minutes!! I believe final score will be 95 - 52 -ish >> wanted to play UNDER which is why I was scoping this but its becoming real sharp toward the proper total maybe
I had it right....haha....what was I thinking? Ah well....still will gain +1 Unit and hopefully it stays UNDER too
Duke Game was quite disgusting.....
With 6 minutes to go....DUKE completely shut down and turned over the ball, put up random shots that were terrible and basically let Howard come down and jack up 3 pt shots or foul them to go to the line..... Duke was on pace to win by 52-55 pts and I lost my cover by 1.5 pts BUT hey, I got my middie 
I did get the UNDER so I break even in that game but if I had a Duke ticket heavy, I would be very pissed off right now with that shit show
Lost my Georgia game ....so down 1U today for the second day in a row
Working on my charts which when I am done....I will be much quicker in making decision with 3 angles to ponder on each game...
Monday:
Gonzaga -3.5 x 1U < this drops, I will buy more
- I expect this one to come down and the betting crowd to take the bait on Alabama
- the point differential for Gonzaga is just to great for me to ignore...next the Duke so far, its the highest....they can do it all but Alabama picks and chooses its effort and I know Few will have his guys ready to pounce on their mistakes and play defense to hold them at bay
Found G-Mason late before bed....
Here is their Point differential of Off/Def from my chart:
164th rank points > George Mason 76.5 avg > 76.5 (+17.2) 59.3 << one of the 10 best defenses!
Here is Ohio:
194th rank points > Ohio 74.2 avg > 74.2 (-11.6) 85.8 <<<< 85.8 against!!
I could still lose if they shoot like crap in a low scoring game....but at least my selection is rock solid based on great stats and better performance
Gonzaga vs Alabama point differential:
Gonzaga: - above Duke and almost as good defensively!!!
14th Gonzaga > 94 avg > 94.0 (+36.2) 57.8
16th Duke > 93.7 avg > 93.7 (+36.5) 57.2
Alabama:
31st Alabama 91 > 91.0 (+8.2) 82.8 < likes offensive games and shy on defense (just like last year though)
Big difference in point differential....but....I expect Alabama to keep it close with their offense....but Zaga to contain them a little more than the other way around
Sorry, at work all day and could not see my screen.
Buffalo -8 is not a good rank to spread correlation ....they only cover 22 - 36 ATS but this rank combo has been on fire lately winning ATS ....I would have taken VMI if I was forced to
Updated: 231-280th > 5- 16 ATS (-11 to -15.5) and 22- 36-1 ATS (-6 to -10.5)
....data from my chart
Established in 1995,
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