Are the gambling gods smiling upon us by giving us this rematch? Tulane Vs. Memphis. WRITE-UP!

2016 posted record: 6-1

Does anyone remember what the 1 loss in the 6-1 above was?

It was Memphis @ Tulane and they lost in OT after Tulane knocked down a 3 to tie it at the end of regulation.

Well amazingly, this 6 vs. 10 seed game offers us the same matchup for the third time this season! Maybe the gambling gods want to give us back what was taken.

Folks you could have given me 100-1 odds that Memphis would be playing Tulane in the AAC semis and I would have laughed away the offer. And here we are...in that exact scenario. And we cannot sit here and let it pass us by.

Speaking of passing things by... 

You've heard of the story about the Tortoise and the Hare. Well I just got done watching Houston vs. Tulane and that story played itself out in real life to a tee.

Houston, like the Hare, is high scoring team that plays at a relentless pace and models itself after the go-small lineup of Warriors with dynamic guards who do all the scoring.

Tulane is boring and unremarkable like the Tortoise. They take few risks on offense, are solid in half-court defense and they hit their free throws.

Well last night Houston had a million chances to run away with this game, even up 10 with 14 minutes second half and like the Hare, they took a nap on defense (and at the free throw line going an incredible 13-26 as a team!!!) and right as they awoke to attempt to win that game, Tortoise slowly extended its oversized blocky leg over the finish line as Hare flew a thousand miles an hour towards him only to lose at the very last second. 

Out of breathe, confused, disoriented and now possibly out of the NCAA Tournament, Houston was left on its as* with nothing Tulane marching band playing its fight song in its ears. Stunning...

Now onto this pick and I will break it down every which way until Sunday.

Let there be no doubt: We are going Memphis here.

The only concern is the one thing gamblers have to worry about: the spread and that number just opened at Memphis -9.5.

Can we lay the number? Yes.

1. The last game between these two looms large.

Folks this is EXACTLY how we played the South Florida vs. ECU posted winner played out.

SFU came in after suffering an embarrassing loss to ECU and was looking for redemption. Call it revenge. Call it anything you want. But know that two things: a) the timing of the rematch in relation to the last game b) and the fact Memphis lost the game outright plays a MAJOR role in our play.

SFU was the winning play last post in part for exactly the reason two reasons above. They were familiar with the opponent which gave them a blueprint for victory and they came in the losers from the last matchup. It was a capping ingredient we used for success and it worked perfectly.

The EXACT same thing is happening in Tulane vs. Memphis and its beautiful in its simplicity.

Memphis played Tulane almost exactly one month ago and suffered their second most embarrassing loss of the season (their first was a loss to SFU). Yes this team has struggled this year but that makes this line better for us and I want to be clear, this is now a different team and that's all that matters.

In that game, Tulane would not die and fought right to the buzzer eventually beating Memphis in OT after tying it with a buzzer beating 3 in regulation. If that buzzer beater does not fall Memphis probably wins by 5, there is no revenge spot here, no embarrassing loss and no play. So in a way, I'm a bit thankful that 3 fell and Tulane won because it has lead to this play. That was just a casual play against a bad Tulane team. This play encompasses much more in terms of capping.

Again, the formula for redemption, that is, a recent embarrassing loss to the team you are playing in the tournament worked in the SFU vs. ECU posted win and it will work here. Memphis has seen it's opponent twice before, has recently seen them and moreover, has a whole lot more to play.

1a. Memphis on the bubble

On that point, what is Memphis playing for? It's tournament life. The ONE goal of every team is to make the tournament and as a sixth seed in a weak AAC, they are not even on the bubble. They have to win this tournament to get to play in March Madness.

So does Tulane but really, with the previous two wins, Tulane's expectations have fare exceeded what anyone thought they could achieve.

Yes they are playing with house money right now but Memphis, a team of pride and history is playing for it's life, and to stick in the face of all those who criticized them all year (and there were innumerable amounts of those people).

That's a hell of a lot of motivation on the back end there for Memphis. 

2. Tulane - Can they win this game and how have they played in the tournament?

Tulane is on a little hot streak here having won two in a row.

I will tell you I watched the Tulane vs. UCF win. Folks, that is not a great win by any means. It was gutsy, but not great. How can it be? This is UCF we are talking about here!

UCF beat Tulane twice during the regular season and they aren't remotely comparable to any good team that can casually sweep any team, even terrible ones, three games. They were a mere -4.5 pt favorites in that game and that should tell you these teams are closer than they are far apart (and UCF is not a good team in the least). Their big man 7'6'' Tacko Fall had an off game. If he had even half the game he had the previous two matchups, UCF wins. Anyhow nice two point win by Tulane and it was a nice confidence boost for them.

I also just finished watching all of Houston vs. Tulane.

Bottom line: Houston played to lose this game. Memphis will not be doing the same with their tournament life on the line.

First off, Danrad Knowles was eaten alive underneath by Dylan Osetkowski. Time after time after time he was beaten on rebounds and putbacks. Just horrendous play underneath against a far inferior team.

Houston made NO ADJUSTMENTS in the second half whatsoever, continued to let Tulane's frontcourt abuse them and allowed their own guards to dictate and score everything and eventually gave up every point of the lead to lose on a three pointer with 7 seconds left.

It was High School JV basketball at its finest with Houston deluding themselves that a team like Tulane couldn't beat them and they did exactly that.

But that game was key because not only did the last Memphis/Tulane game provide a blueprint for success for Memphis, this one did too.

Virtually EVERY point for Tulane up until the last three minutes of the game was scored in the paint. And I do mean EVERY point other than FT's...42 total. Tulane missed almost all their three pointers (going 2-14 and still winning the game!) and kept pounding it inside. Houston was ATROCIOUS defending down low and Danard Knowles is largely to blame. I'd rather of had Beyoncé Knowles defending underneath after watching that crap.

And to make matters worse, all the Tulane big men (primarily Osetkowski and Smith) had 4 fouls with 15 minutes left in the second and Houston would not attack them with penetration. TERRIBLE adjustments and gameplanning by Houston. Just horrible.

So many mistakes and misreads on Houston's part to lose this one!

Memphis will not make the same mistakes. Josh Pastner (I know you don't like him but the guy wins games, period) has the coaching edge over Sampson of Houston and is LIGHT YEARS better than HC Conroy of Tulane and he WILL NOT make the same mistakes. He doesn't even have the team construction to do so.

How can you? The coach of the previous losing team made all those mistakes and now you have the tape!

In summation, Tulane beat a bad team in UCF which is not capable of sweeping a team 3 times and beat a very good team in Houston because they would not adjust and their frontcourt couldn't handle Tulane's (amazingly). Now they have to beat what is recently a high-scoring Memphis team coming together? That's a tall order.

3. Ed Conroy firing rumors

This is very important.

The head coach of Tulane, Ed Conroy, was said to be fired as soon as tonight after this game given it was leaked from Tulane's front office he would be axed. That was leaked on ESPN.

Classless right? Well there's one problem. Tulane won in a massive upset as a 12 pt dog.

Who is playing the fool now? Tulane's athletic department, that's who.

I watched the Tulane post-game with Conroy and he said he spoke to the players about the firing frankly. That is amazing. Usually coaches say "No comment" or "I didn't hear anything about that" (lying through their teeth) and they move onto the next question. This guy actually confronted rumors about his termination before tip, not just with the media but with his own players!

Conroy actually said this was a rallying point in the locker room. That was music to my ears.

 "We had three guys tell me behind the bench I was fired. The guys heard it, (and) they came together and played even harder."

Well guess what folks, these rallying points are like the "Star player out, role players step up theory". That theory works but you have to know when to apply it. The motivational aspect of both almost always last ONE GAME.

After that, especially after a big upset, the motivation dwindles. And look, Tulane won it's game in what might be the biggest win in program history! Now they play a hot Memphis team.

Folks, that motivation and rallying round-the-coach for their coach can only last so long. That one game where it is by far the strongest is now over and now we can play Memphis to win. They will win. But will they cover?

4.Memphis' play of late - Hot enough to get us a cover?

Yes.

ECU is a bad team. What do good teams do to bad teams? They smoke them. They beat them by 30 in the final game of the season. I like the bashing. Oh by the way, that was AVENGING a loss to ECU in their previous game on 1/24/16.

Lo and behold, Memphis is avenging a loss to Tulane here! Wonderful. (another bad team that consistently ranks in the high 200's in all relevant team-based metrics just like ECU). These teams have their moments folks. But those moments are fleeting. Tulane just had theirs.

What did Memphis do in last night's game? They bombed Tulsa by 22 in a game that could have easily been a 30 point win if not for garbage time baskets by Tulsa.

Tulsa was hot folks. And also note Tulsa was coming in with REVENGE after a loss to Memphis on 2/28!

So a hot Tulsa team, as a higher seed, playing off a bye with revenge LOSES by 22 to Memphis.

That should tell you something about how Memphis is playing right now. They are hitting the stride they wanted to hit all season while they grossly underachieved and now they get one of the worst teams in their conference in the AAC semifinals with their NCAA tournament life on the line. You think they will let this one slip through their fingers? Absolutely not.

Just the fact that they played with such aggressiveness should tell you they wanted Tulane in every which way (the earlier game before the Memphis Tulsa game and they knew they'd play them if they beat Tulsa). The Tulsa game was never in doubt. They were the hungrier team. They were the more motivated team. They were bombing 3's like Curry and hitting them (that's high confidence folks) and please note this as well:

They played almost an entire 20+ minutes of basketball WITHOUT their best player Shaq Goodwin who was whistled for 3 early fouls and sent to the bench. And they STILL build a 30+ pt lead without their floor leader!

Folks, they wanted Tulane for breakfast, lunch and dinner and they ate and swallowed them with glee, dabbing the sides of their mouth with a tiger blue dinner napkin when they were finished.

One negative: Avery Woodson a backup guard left with a shoulder injury and he is gametime decision. But Memphis' guards are playing so well, there is no way that is moving me off this pick.

5. Tulane's weaknesses are Memphis' strengths

Memphis is hot hitting the 3 as of late.

Tulane's 3 pt FG defense? 221st in the nation.

Memphis is forcing and thriving off turnovers and crushed ECU and Tulsa due to them (22 and 13 respectively for both teams).

Tulane's turnover ranking: 223 in the nation. They will turn the ball over and it will lead to Memphis' scores to get us over this number.

I don't even need to list how bad Tulane is in other areas (and it's really bad) because this is a somewhat different team now and regular season stats should be put in their proper place during tourney time. But if you want to look them up, almost all of them are in the bottom 1/3 for D1 basketball when it come to Tulane.

Lastly, Tulane had a two game win streak this year against a bad ECU team and then they beat Memphis (BOTH with buzzer beating/tying threes to send both games to OT).

They had one three game win streak. Who did they beat in those three games? Stephen F Austin, Liberty U, and another team who you have no idea existed in D1 (just like the first two). Not exactly UNLV/Duke/Kentucky of the 90's.

Can Tulane string together a three game winning streak against UCF,Houston, and Memphis in a conference tournament? That is asking a ton of them and when they flame out, it should be in a fashion that results in a comfortable Memphis win as they eye their prize of the finals (and they can definitely beat UConn or Temple. What a GIFT it is not to play SMU given their suspension! Don't think Memphis isn't aware of this as they are gifted a semi matchup of Temple!)

The line is -9.5 (almost certainly going to 10). Is that a favorable line for us?

I say yes.

The books once again resorted to line-setting laziness to make this one.

The last game was -6/-6.5/-7.

Home court to a neutral court is typically a +3/-3 swing.

Lo and behold, the books just added 3 to 6.5 and got the 9.5. No adjustment for recent play whatsoever. Overvaluing Tulane's win over Houston as well.

The Memphis team that lost to Tulane had lost 5 of 7 and had gone through the toughest part of their conference schedule. They were off their game and couldn't get back on their feet quick enough in that spot. Even at that, a buzzer beater took them out.

This Memphis team has won 3 of 4 with its highest scoring output string of the season (92, 83, 89 vs. Tulsa ECU and Tulsa again) with their only slip up being Temple who they scored 62 against. But Temple was playing to win the conference over SMU and they pulled through in a big way.

Tulane, remember, is 312th in the nation in scoring out of 355 teams! Here is what they averaged their past 5: 53,65,56,65,72 last night. Guess what? That average of 62 in their last 5 is actually BELOW their 312th national ranking of 66.

So we shouldn't expect to see Tulane score any more or any less than about 66ish. Memphis has been in the 80's lately. This makes a spread less than 10 (a key number that teams love to stay ahead of psychologically) quite reasonable on a numbers basis alone without any of the capping!

7. Pool parties for Tulane?

After all the traditional capping, the metrics, and the team breakdowns, I always like to find the things that go unnoticed to put a play into a comfort zone more than it already is.

We don't make a play because of this but it is an interesting observation nonetheless, that is, a little extra to make us feel comfortable.

The one thing that bothered me about these tournament games was that if you were late game, a team that had won earlier could watch you play and game plan for you simply because your game was scheduled later than theirs.

Obviously the team playing later cannot do this for the earlier game as they would be preparing for an unknown unknown (cue Donald Rumsfeld). You have a game to play. You can't game plan for two other teams when you haven't even advanced.

So during these tournament game the winning team of the earlier game is, many times, in the stands watching the later game.

I have Tulane's Men's Hoops Twitter feed on my phone and while the Memphis game was occurring, a game they should have been at observing (at least on TV at a bare minimum!), I saw a most unusual tweet.

It said "Wrapping up the day with a little pool recovery. #GoWave."

So instead of watching the Memphis Tulsa game, a game that was long over in the first half so you don't even have to consider Tulsa as an opponent, Tulane was having a pool party! Someone get the beach balls, pineapple daiquiris and cute girls in bikinis. And turn the Justin Beiber up on the radio! It's party time!

Do I fault them for their rest and relaxation after their huge win instead of watching the Memphis game? NO! This is what teams do after big wins! Especially when the win is one of the biggest in their history.That is why there is, in part, traditionally a letdown spot the next game! 

Anyhow, I found that interesting. Hopefully Tulane's center Dylan Osetkowski doesn't show up to the Memphis game with a little multi-colored umbrella on toothpick behind his ear.

9.5 is not an ideal number. Tournament games are closer games than the regular season. Am I THRILLED about laying 10 in a tournament game? No. But I do like the lazy line adjustment by the books and I do like everything surrounding this rematch in addition to Memphis' high-scoring output as of late. Tulane has done far more than it should have and Memphis has so much more left to achieve. If either Morgan or Dabny on Tulane has a sub-par game Tulane should not cover this number. We need a fast start and Memphis needs to keep their foot on the gas the entire second half. Houston handed them everything they need to know in order to take out Tulane and avoid their debacle of a game. Plus their frontcourt is much stronger underneath in comparison to Houston.  

Well folks, I capped it right down to the opponent's social media accounts. I can do no more. Don't worry about consensus. When you cap a game from top to bottom that becomes less relevant.

6 winners in a row. Let's go for 7.

The pick:

Memphis -9.5 over Tulane

Correct. I remember that. And those shooting slumps have been few and far between as of late. And even when they shoot poorly, they make up from 3 and from the FT line.

Just when I see a spot. Usually once a week or once every two weeks here, NBA, CFB, or NFL only.

I know what you saw in the regular season. Memphis was awful at times. They lost to SFU as double digit favorites!

But I've also watched them grow. I've watched their coach get slaughtered in the media and now give interviews in a calm and collected manner with confidence. That speaks to the attitude of his team.

I watched Tulane beat UCF. Let me assure you, just like SFU's win over ECU, that is by no means a tough win. It's a good win for them and that's it, because they are so terrible.

And Houston had 7 pt leads several times, an 8 pt lead at the half and a 10 pt lead in the middle of the second half and let their guards go wild throwing up every shot imaginable. No game plan whatsoever. And little by litte, Tulane inched their way back into that game and before you knew it, they were in the lead and Houston was none the wiser.

There is zero chance Memphis plays as bad as Houston and there is zero chance Memphis misses half their free throws (they are in the 4th in D1 in FT percentage). That all translates into spread covering points. Tulane was 2-14 from three. That is huge for a spread like this. The backdoors possibilities are numerous and when you can't hit 3's, they disappear.

Plus the entire night, Conroy's firing was swirling around that game added extra pep in the step to all players. Now the cat is out of the bag (and will Tulane even fire him after that win and embarrassing leak). The mission to save his job may have already been accomplished!

chau venez vitz rebel

Get that man another coffee pronto!

playa JP

Billy. Good to see ya.

https://www.covers.com/odds/linehistory.aspx?eventId=914944&sport=NCB

This is NOT accurate. I woke up early at 7:30am to check this line and before and after writing it up it was -9.5 on 5Dimes at 9:41.

Never had a line move this fast like this on me before. Especially over a key number.

@buzz @jroc - I don't like giving out 2 free points. I like getting 2 free points like the OKC/Thunder game.

It sucks because my number is no longer yours.

I also don't like the Avery Woodson for Memphis is questionable but. He's not great but he's a starter and has been playing well of late.

I can only say I'd back off the units at that number. While this was a bigger than normal play at 9.5 (10 is a key number in CBB/NBA), I'd back off the bet a bit in terms of amount. But 11.5 doesn't make it a no-play. It just opens up the backdoor more. Just shave some units if betting multiple units.

I'm REALLY pist this number moved like this in one friggin hour.