Posted:
#251
my mistake but to my defense this thread gets comments like wild fire i didnt think to look back almost two pages. i just looked at comments from today
2012 Kempom System
Posted:
#255
Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
I started the System on Saturday w/ the old parameters... here are my notes thus far.....
2/18/12
Play AGAINST
Pacific -8.5 vs Idaho St 8pm win
by 2 System winner
Central Michigan -10 vs Texas A/M Corpus Christi
Lousiiana Tech -16 vs Central Arkansas
Radford -10.5 vs Binghamton
Wisconsin Green Bay -8.5 vs Eastern
Michigan win by 5 system winner
Canisius -7 vs Maryland Balt. Co.
Tenn. Chattanooga -11 vs The
Citadel lose by 2 system winner-outirght winner @ +475!
3-0 ATS(+300); 1-2 SU (+275)
HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM
PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite
That is at home and always has
"lined" games (includes Summit)
The Conferences that do
not qualify as System plays are:
American East, Atlantic Sun,
Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot,
Southland, and Southwestern Athletic.
2/19/12-NO PLAYS
2/20/12-NO PLAYS
2/21/12-
#262 Greensboro vs Wofford? they been killing it in
conference 10-6…. 1st place in Southern North Division by 2 games;
Wofford 10-6 3rd place in Northen division… could be a tight game,
the points could be good…NO PLAY… Greensboro +2…..
2/22/12
#266 Eastern Michigan -9.5 vs Northern
Illinois win by 3 system winner!
4-0 ATS (+400); 1-3 SU (+175)
2/23/12
#262 Eastern Kentucky -9.5 vs SIU Edwardsville, (I got +9)
#226 Morehead St -7 vs Eastern Illinois.. dropped to 6,
missed out, monitor
#221 Florida International -6.5 vs Troy
#183 Florida Atlantic -7 vs South Alabama.. dropped to 6, missed
out, monitor …back to -7, jumpin on it…
(#242 Furman -6 vs Chattanooga -NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”, but
now up to 6.5, see how it does… Kine is looking for reasons to play Chat…)
(#148 College of Charleston -9 vs Georgia Southern -NOT
SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor)
(#148 N. Dakota St -7.5 vs IUPI -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine
looking to monitor, up to -8)
(#213 Lousiana Tech -6 vs San Jose St -NOT SYSTEM, but an “almost”
play)
(#168 Youngstown St -5 vs Wright St-NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”;
Kine monitoring)
Posted:
#258
Quote Originally Posted by Fools_Gold:
I started the System on Saturday w/ the old parameters... here are my notes thus far.....
2/18/12
Play AGAINST
Pacific -8.5 vs Idaho St 8pm win
by 2 System winner
Central Michigan -10 vs Texas A/M Corpus Christi
Lousiiana Tech -16 vs Central Arkansas
Radford -10.5 vs Binghamton
Wisconsin Green Bay -8.5 vs Eastern
Michigan win by 5 system winner
Canisius -7 vs Maryland Balt. Co.
Tenn. Chattanooga -11 vs The
Citadel lose by 2 system winner-outirght winner @ +475!
3-0 ATS(+300); 1-2 SU (+275)
HERE ARE THE NEW SYSTEM
PARAMETERS:
Bet against any team:
That Is Kenpom #165 or worse
That OPENS as a 6.5 point favorite
That is at home and always has
"lined" games (includes Summit)
The Conferences that do
not qualify as System plays are:
American East, Atlantic Sun,
Big South, Great West, Independents, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Northeast, Patriot,
Southland, and Southwestern Athletic.
2/19/12-NO PLAYS
2/20/12-NO PLAYS
2/21/12-
#262 Greensboro vs Wofford? they been killing it in
conference 10-6…. 1st place in Southern North Division by 2 games;
Wofford 10-6 3rd place in Northen division… could be a tight game,
the points could be good…NO PLAY… Greensboro +2…..
2/22/12
#266 Eastern Michigan -9.5 vs Northern
Illinois win by 3 system winner!
4-0 ATS (+400); 1-3 SU (+175)
2/23/12
#262 Eastern Kentucky -9.5 vs SIU Edwardsville, (I got +9)
#226 Morehead St -7 vs Eastern Illinois.. dropped to 6,
missed out, monitor
#221 Florida International -6.5 vs Troy
#183 Florida Atlantic -7 vs South Alabama.. dropped to 6, missed
out, monitor …back to -7, jumpin on it…
(#242 Furman -6 vs Chattanooga -NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”, but
now up to 6.5, see how it does… Kine is looking for reasons to play Chat…)
(#148 College of Charleston -9 vs Georgia Southern -NOT
SYSTEM, but Kine looking to monitor)
(#148 N. Dakota St -7.5 vs IUPI -NOT SYSTEM, but Kine
looking to monitor, up to -8)
(#213 Lousiana Tech -6 vs San Jose St -NOT SYSTEM, but an “almost”
play)
(#168 Youngstown St -5 vs Wright St-NOT SYSTEM, “almost play”;
Kine monitoring)
From what I can see, Eastern Kentucky is about to get to -10 according to reduced juice on 5Dimes. IUPUI might get to +8 again for the same reason. San Jose St. up to +6.5
Posted:
#259
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
Superb article, this is exactly the way I cap, article likes this one. Of course, I really like the under, one would possibility point to under first half as if Citadel falls behind they might have to speed up the tempo in the second half. Still digging now
dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"...
Superb article, this is exactly the way I cap, article likes this one. Of course, I really like the under, one would possibility point to under first half as if Citadel falls behind they might have to speed up the tempo in the second half. Still digging now
Posted:
#262
Glad I waited on S. Alabama too, just added that at 7.5 to my card as well. Also added San Jose St. as it is now at 6.5 and as I don't see Edwardsville going up I am going to settle for the 9.5.
EIU is down to 6 and I don't anticipate it going back up so I am going to have to pass on that. Best of luck everyone!
Posted:
#263
Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
Log? The first game of the system was yesterday
Presystem is just how the system would have done had we started it two weeks earlier, very simple to go back and examine.
Posted:
#264
Quote Originally Posted by LiL_River333:
dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"...
dakineProf... if i remember right u mentioned to stay away from ML, 1st halfs, 2nd halfs games. cuzz its not part of the "System"...
Exactly, only full-game plays are "system" plays. But after examining these games that most people overlook, if you see an angle you like (the Citadel article about slowing down tempo) and you want to play it, its is well advised that you do so, its just not technically a system play.
KP thanks for all your input & bol......
Posted:
#269
Quote Originally Posted by R-Town:
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
Does anyone have a log with official pre-system & system plays YTD? I've tried to go back and log them myself, but some dates are missing.
if dates are missing its because there werent plays that day.....pre system was 25-9.....but not exact as i used some of the conferences that dont always have lines...not enough to skew the win perecnt though... that was from feb 1 -feb 17....
kine is taking off on the system from 18th on...
4 today with tenn chat on the bubble....kine thanks for the picks..last night niu almost won outright...gl tonight ryno
Posted:
#273
I am a little scared to post this because I don't want to get screamed at by KineProfessor...joke! This is what I have for now:
SIU Edwardsville +9.5 (Holding steady!)
San Jose State +6.5 (opened at 5.5 and we are getting the kind of line movement we like to see with the system plays)
South Alabama +7 (dipped to 6.5 earlier but went back to 7)
Chattanooga +6.5 (opened at 6 and moved to 6.5. I would wait to see if we get a better number or if it holds steady)
Close but no cigar:
Eastern Illinois +6 (opened at +7 and moving down. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back to a system play and I will play it but I would much rather have it at 7)
Troy +6 (opened at 6.5, went to 7 and now down to 6. It could be a system play by game time)
I will likely wait on all of these to see IF they fall out of system possibilities especially the ones right on the number.
Posted:
#274
Quote Originally Posted by KineProfessor:
I subscribe to the "theory of opposites" in life. If you see "most" people doing something, do the opposite and you will most likely find success. "Most" people eat fast food, sweets, and other crap, so I don't. "Most" people don't exercise, so I exercise. "Most" people complain about their job and do the very least amount of work possible, so I don't complain and do the very best that I can. "Most" people float through life with no goals or aspirations, so I set goals and try to be better both personally and professionally, the list goes on and on.
"Most" people lose at gambling (many lose a ton and almost everyone loses over the long run). What do we know that "most" gamblers do? "Most" gamblers bet on favorites, "most" gamblers bet on games they can watch on tv, "most" gamblers bet right before the game starts and gets the worse line, "most" gamblers bet more when they are losing, "most" gamblers chase bad beats and losses, etc. etc. etc. I try to do the opposite of these things as much as I can. Vegas knows these characteristics of gamblers as well and makes you pay a premium to bet on ranked teams and televised games. Those lines are WAY MORE "tight" and there are tons of information available about those players, games etc.
I can write another 10K words about this but need to dive into the games a bit more, but that should give you a bit of insight into my mindset, I'll try to revisit in sometime in the next week or two.
I subscribe to the "theory of opposites" in life. If you see "most" people doing something, do the opposite and you will most likely find success. "Most" people eat fast food, sweets, and other crap, so I don't. "Most" people don't exercise, so I exercise. "Most" people complain about their job and do the very least amount of work possible, so I don't complain and do the very best that I can. "Most" people float through life with no goals or aspirations, so I set goals and try to be better both personally and professionally, the list goes on and on.
"Most" people lose at gambling (many lose a ton and almost everyone loses over the long run). What do we know that "most" gamblers do? "Most" gamblers bet on favorites, "most" gamblers bet on games they can watch on tv, "most" gamblers bet right before the game starts and gets the worse line, "most" gamblers bet more when they are losing, "most" gamblers chase bad beats and losses, etc. etc. etc. I try to do the opposite of these things as much as I can. Vegas knows these characteristics of gamblers as well and makes you pay a premium to bet on ranked teams and televised games. Those lines are WAY MORE "tight" and there are tons of information available about those players, games etc.
I can write another 10K words about this but need to dive into the games a bit more, but that should give you a bit of insight into my mindset, I'll try to revisit in sometime in the next week or two.
Man, wish we lived near each other. I think we have a lot in common. Still play ball 4 times a week and haven't had fast food or soda in over 7 years (very strict diet). My wife and sons the same..... Never have to worry about getting sick...... Keep up the good work man......
Posted:
#275
Quote Originally Posted by YACKER:
I am a little scared to post this because I don't want to get screamed at by KineProfessor...joke! This is what I have for now:
SIU Edwardsville +9.5 (Holding steady!)
San Jose State +6.5 (opened at 5.5 and we are getting the kind of line movement we like to see with the system plays)
South Alabama +7 (dipped to 6.5 earlier but went back to 7)
Chattanooga +6.5 (opened at 6 and moved to 6.5. I would wait to see if we get a better number or if it holds steady)
Close but no cigar:
Eastern Illinois +6 (opened at +7 and moving down. I wouldn't be surprised to see it move back to a system play and I will play it but I would much rather have it at 7)
Troy +6 (opened at 6.5, went to 7 and now down to 6. It could be a system play by game time)
I will likely wait on all of these to see IF they fall out of system possibilities especially the ones right on the number.
I luv ya Yacker, but you're going to get screamed at.....
The line MUST OPEN at 6.5 or no play...... See post #1 and 2!
Again, no disrespect, because you are the man and on fire!!!
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