Week 7 Indigo

Correction, top three teams in game ones weeks 1/2 went 0-2 ATS, to make them 2-3 ATS for the season so far as home favorites.

And Ottawa is obviously playing a home.

Ja, the trophy wife is just a matter of time.....lol.

Lines are out

             Indigo's                                             bet365 openers 

Ottawa           pik  Montreal 51                       Ottawa +2'       48

BC                 -9   Hamilton 51                         BC       -6'        51

Edmonton      +9  Winnipeg 49                      Elks     +7        47

Saskatchewan -9  Toronto   49                      Sask    -6'        47

Hey Indigo999 are you retired and never sleep

Play:

1)  Redblacks +120

I've mentioned earlier, there is a lot of conflicting history this week, more so than usual....I'm using these queries for my reasons to back the Redblacks.....

  1) An away team that has lost at least three more games than they've won, off a loss at home by less than 7 points.....4-10 ATS (-12.8), 1-13 straight up losing by an average of 20 points/game.

t:losses-t:wins>2 and p:HL and p:margin>-7 and A and week<12

  2)  Divisional home teams off at least four losses in a row before week 12,....16-4-1 ATS (+8.2), 12-9 straight up (+5.5)

H and streak<-3 and week<12 and division=o:division

Leaning Bombers, Argos

Play:

2)  Bombers -7

Using this......a home divisional dog off an away dog win where the line was greater than 6 points........1-12-1 ATS, 1-13 (-12.4) straight up,...average line/total.......... +3.39/51.64,.......average score....19.4-31-8

Three of the 14 games the home dog margin was less than 7 points and one landed exactly on seven.

p:ADW and HD and division=o:division and p:line>6

Play:

3)  Argos +6

2)  Bombers -7

1)  Redblacks +120....heavy betting on the Alouettes, I cancelled my play and will get back on them later in the week hoping  the betting takes this to +3 or higher.

@Indigo999

 I have a model for the nfl that works well, i started using it for CFL last year as a test and also did well. My lines actually were closer to yours.

I posted them yesterday to the nfl betting forum before the lines came out , here they are again.

Ott -1 mont

bc 9.5 ham

wpg -7 edm

ssk -4 tor 

Good on ya Jets, we'll welcome your input......your model doesn't produce totals?  

Hoody also has CFL lines that he puts out...your Ottawa and Saskatchewan lines agree pretty closely.  I don't use a math based model like it looks like you do, and Hoody does....however the betting public bets the opening line towards my lines a mjority of the time which means it is good line that Indigo produces.

Totals plays have been rotten this year, and it looks like I won't be making any more totals plays....both myself and Hoody have struggled this year....hopefully you have been doing well.

Hoody hit over 62% last year  if I recall correctly, and most quant-type people say it's all about value in comparing a model's lines to the bookies......perhaps that is true, though early in the season I would disagree with that to a certain extent.  Still as I've said many times, there are many ways to make a million and also many ways to beat the line......there is no one way works for every bettor.

This forum could use some more input, just be aware of the dreaded first poster's hex that is alive and well here, though Mr. Pirate came on here last week, acted like it wasn't a thing and it wasn't... he went 3-1 in his first attempt, so perhaps he broke through for all future posters.

See ya around!

Staff writers' picks...these have been 2-7 ATS since week 3 when 5 or 6 out of 6 writers have been on one side.....and now I have made a couple of plays that are in opposition to this that has worked so well in fading this year so far.....so?....will I (and you?) be fading the fade this week?

1)  Bombers 100%....Bombers could let down in this game as they are in sandwich situation, we'll see.

2)  Argos 83%.......evidently there's been a covid outbreak and a practice was cancelled, which is why the line has moved down

3)  BC 83%.....there's a couple of very good angles that call for fading the Lions,....still I don't think I can play the Tiger Cats, especially since home favorites off a home loss with rest have been 9-0 straight up, winning by an average of 12 points.  Also teams that broke at least a 3 game winning streak with a win at home that go on the road as away dogs in non-divisional games have been 1-10 straight up losing by an average of 11 points/game.  I just don't like the fact that the Lions are off a loss and the Cats are off a win.

So, I'll of course be kicking myself if things don't work out this week by not playing the fade.  I will re-evaluate if the Cats somehow cover on Thursday night.

I hope it's time to start winning but if I get the losing out of the way now and start winning a unit or two here and there I think I'll feel a little better, still a long season Indigo. If I get down a few units, I hope it's at the NFL season or better yet it just last's a short time. Heads up winning coming. 

Correction from my last post ......"Also teams that broke at least a 3 game winning  'losing'  streak with a win at home that go on the road as away dogs in non-divisional games have been 1-10 straight up losing by an average of 11 points/game

I up and took the Redblacks at a slightly better price...

Plays:

1)  Redblacks +125

2)  Bombers -7

3)  Argos +6

Evidently Fajardo is a 50-50 chance of playing according to CFL.ca.  His biggest asset is his ability to scramble and/or run, so if that is curtailed I would play the backup until he is good to go.

I would downgrade their line to -2' whether he plays hurt or he doesn't play at all.

@Indigo999

 It appears you know what your talking about, i've been sports betting a very ,very long time, back in the SSB forum days and the BT days , a little slack days.

Though i do make math based models, i don't know a thing about CFL, you are going to close the gap on that by me reading your posts, not a big trend person, but sometimes ill take that into effect. 

Blindly , I took a small teaser with B.C and Wpg ...like the NFL , i need to see 4 weeks of action before i start pounding away, Like i said ,i tested this last year and am too stupid to back test anything further back , because i do this all on paper.

Enjoy reading you posts.

Good luck 

ps it doesnt produce totals 

Yes, I contemplated doing the exact same teaser, though they're not available here (Australia).......I would've done a moneyline parlay instead.  In actuality, the sports books here look at someone making money on a sport outside of Australia with huge disdain to the point of it being almost racist.....pointsbet for example here this week offered -8 -110, +8, -115 on CFL games....they would get laughed out of existence if they tried to do the same thing in north america.  Bet365 is honorable and fair, which may be the only one out of at least 20 books in Oz for betting CFL and some refuse to book the games...I've gotten banned from a couple for making 10 grand on CFL games.  

In the book, The Smart Money, by Michael Konik, which tells a very humourous true story of being a runner for Billy Walters, in the end of the saga the author has a dream where he reaiizes teasers are a very sharp play....he is an HUGE advocate of teasers before he gave gambling completely away.

I use six games worth of data on a straight math based system on totals in the last four weeks of college football and also in the month of February in college hoops where there is 6 conference games worth of data to use in a straight regression system....it is probably the most profitable thing that I do in sports wagering.  It produces over 100-200 plays a week in college basketball, hitting about 56-57% and at least 25 games of action in college football on Saturdays, so those months are seriously like  those fake Hollywood gambling movies with paper strewn all over the floor with tons of action happening on Saturdays and again on Wednesdays, the busiest non-Saturday day in college hoops.  I'll do the same calculations for the CFL and track it to see if it might be profitable in the CFL (it is kinda strange I haven't done this exact same thing for the CFL in the past) after every team has played  the requisite 6 games.

If you don't mind sharing put out what you have in week 1 in the NFL,...that'd be interesting....and if you'd rather not on a public forum, then perhaps you'd PM me...there's always something new to learn and someone new to exchange ideas with.

I'll put out what I have in the NFL and the angles used in next week's thread, I'll be playing 8 or 9 games.

I'm going to Vegas in a month and will spend the whole autumn there seeing if I have what it takes to be a pro....I'll be playing for keeps.

Actually, here is one game 1 angle for the NFL....

We look to go against an away team week 1 that played in at least one playoff game last season, that also played in at least two playoff games two seasons prior......10-24 ATS (-4.34), 15-18 straight up (-3.38)............average line/total -1/44, .....................................average score....................20.2-23.6

Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bucs

tppS(playoffs)>1 and week=1 and A and tpS(playoffs)>0

@Indigo999

 Do you mean, you want my week 1 lines ? that's not a problem at all, Ill send you you them when completed , am from new york, only my locals have CFL , not sure why the legal online books don't have them.

Yes, your week 1 lines.....it's because the CFL can be beaten that books don't post the lines....now you'd think that because bookmakers win at almost everything else that throwing bettors a bone or two before the most profitable sport for them, the NFL, would be good business, but they are so overwhelmed by greed that they won't even do that.

Here's another NFL week one angle.

We look to play ON an away dog who won less regular  games than their week one opponent did last season.....110-82-7 ATS.....Steelers, Jaguars, Giants

week=1 and AD and PRSW<o:PRSW

If also  their next week's line will be stronger than their present opponent's next week line .....70-32 ATS....Giants

week=1 and AD and PRSW<o:PRSW and n:line<on:line

If our away dog won 4, 5 or 6 games last season....38-9 ATS (+6.81), 19-30 straight up (+1.31)......average line/total +5.5/42.1........average score 22.9-21.6

week=1 and AD and PRSW<o:PRSW and n:line<on:line and 3<PRSW<7

Giants

Week 1 NFL.....

A home divisional dog of less than 6.5 points that  won more than 3 games last season versus a team that made the playoffs last season....8-1 ATS (+7.61).........8-1 straight up (+4.44)....average line/total +3.2/42.3.....average score 23.2-18.8

HD and week=1 and division=o:division and opS(playoffs)>0 and PRSW>3 and line<6

Vikings, Falcons

Actually, this angle is 22-15 ATS, but it is 11-1 ATS since the 2010 season, and 11-1 straight up, winning by an average of 9.8 points/game and some of you query handicappers will notice that the requirement that their opponent had made the playoffs the previous season isn't in the query below.

tpS(W)<opS(W) and HD and week=1 and division=o:division and line<=6 and tpS(W)>3 and season>2009

@Indigo999

 Actually, here is one game 1 angle for the NFL....

We look to go against an away team week 1 that played in at least one playoff game last season, that also played in at least two playoff games two seasons prior......10-24 ATS (-4.34), 15-18 straight up (-3.38)............average line/total -1/44, .....................................average score....................20.2-23.6

Bills, Chiefs, Packers, Bucs

Hi mate, 

Been following your CFL input for a while now, very helpful, just asking ? if Chiefs are meant to be in the group as they are a Home side in Week 1.

andyrusso (another Aussie who follows/loves NFL) 

Hmmm, I don't know if Australians would consider me an Aussie....lol....I'm a transplanted north american, though I've spent most of my adult life in Oz.

Anyway, the Chiefs go to Arizona in week 1, so they qualify.........I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but I'm 98% sure I'll be fading them.......

.

Sportsinteraction in Canada.....a bookmakers' lines worth looking at because obviously Canadians are going to be privy to all the latest news regarding player availability, etc.

The line is for the Argos has shot down to +3, -125, at SI and bet365 here in Oz is at +2.5 which tells us that Fajardo is out, and/or quite a few players availability (covid) is in question.

CFL.ca news was that a decision whether the game would be called off would be forthcoming tomorrow.....I highly doubt it would be unless the government somehow feel that they entitled to make a decision like that.   

You'd think that governments would surmise that they have enough trouble governing their own responsibilities, but in this present world, one never knows.

The line in the Bombers' game is now heavily juiced at -7,...perhaps it'll hit Indigo's line of-9 by game time.

The Lions are getting action at -8 and that also may head towards -9 that we put out shortly after last weeks games were completed........I possibly could be tempted to take the TCs if it got to 10, but doubtful it'll move that much. 

And Mr. Pirate , where are ya?....we wish to see if that performance was pure skill or pure luck last week....we could use a guy like you that hits 75% every week!.....lol.

Produce the goods Matey!