Indigo999

Deleting Seahawks play.

Plays for 1.5 units:  

1)  Jaguars +3'

2)  Chiefs +1

3)  Titans +5' 

Adding.....

4)  Commanders +3, -100

Though there are a myriad of angles supporting the Panthers, Giants, Bears and Seahawks I cannot pull the trigger on these teams with their very questionable quarterbacks.

In actuality, those types of teams if they were  to start out 0-4 are very good bets later in the season as dogs off a loss.....much like Will Levis last year, those quarterbacks often find ways of blowing a game and the cover for bettors when they often should/could win their games.  My view is that one needs a quarterback to cover on the road, and defense and a running game are more important at home, though competent to excellent quarterbacks that can run....like Murray, Jackson, Josh Allen often are stellar at covering on the road.

  o)  A week 2 away dog off a loss that was outyarded by at least 100 yards in that loss.....25-33-1 ATS (-2.0), 16-43 straight up (-9.1).....VERSUS Panthers, Seahawks, Giants

If our away dog's present opponent outyarded their opponent their previous game this moves to 6-18 ATS (-6.0), 3-21 straight up (-13.6)....this becomes 0-5 ATS (-10.1), 0-5 straight up (-18.6) if our away dog lost that previous game on the road.....VERSUS Giants

p:L and AD and week=2 and p:TY-po:TY<-100 and opo:TY<op:TY

Thanks for that...almost certainly I'll fade the Falcons as we get later in the week.

  n)  An away dog in weeks 2, 3 or 4 that outrushed their present opponent by over 100 yards their previous game, 39-22 ATS, (+3.6).....ON Commies, Jags

Jags rushed for 200 yards, Bengals 46......Commies rushed for 220 and Packers rushed for 78.

p:RY-op:RY>100 and week<5 and AD

  l)  A week 2 dog that will be favored their next two games....62-33 ATS.....ON Chiefs, Bears, Commanders

week = 2 and D and n:F and nn:F

 m)  A week 2 dog whose opponent will be an underdog their next two games.....53-28-4 ATS.....ON NYG, Jaguars

  week=2 and D and on:D and onn:D

  k)  week 2 home favorites off an away loss.....66-80-3 ATS

   1)  If they outgained their opponent in that loss.....29-19-1 ATS (+3.1), 35-14 straight up (+9.1).........ON Cowboys

   2)  If they were outgained in their week 1 away loss....38-60-2 ATS (-2.7), 38-56-4 o/u (-1.6).....VERSUS and UNDER Texans, Ravens, Dolphins, Lions 

week = 2 and HF and p:AL and p:TY < po:TY

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013 and line < 7 and p:L

  j)  Since 2014, an away dog of less 7 points before week 5 off a loss, whose point spread is less than the average margin of the two teams....61-26 ATS (+2.9)....ON Falcons, Panthers, Seahawks, Giants....this has been 25-9 ATS in week 2 since 2013.

Explaining this, as an example, the Falcons average margin is -3, and the Vikings is +3....the predicted line using just averages (in this case there is no average because there's only been one game played),...the line would be Falcons +6 (three minus negative three) and then  two and half points are added  for home field.....rather than a line of Falcons plus 8.5 points, the betting line is +3.5

AD and week<5 and line < oA(margin) +2.5 - tA(margin) and season > 2013

Plays with covers contest percentages:

Adding....

4)  Seahawks +3...25%

1)  Chiefs +1........39%

2)  Titans +5'.......36%

3)  Jaguars +3'....37%

  h)  An away divisional dog off a home divisional dog loss by less than 5 points.....32-15-2 (+3.7), 17-31 o/u (+0.2).......if their present opponent is off an away dog loss.....12-1-1 (+6.4), 7-7 straight up (+0.4), 5-9 o/u (-3.5)......ON Bears (and UNDER)

p:margin>-5 and p:HDL and AD and DIV and p:DIV and op:ADL

  i)  A home divisional favorite of less than 7 points before November off an away dog divisional  loss of less than 5 points....8-14-2 ATS (-2.9), 15-9 straight up (+0.8), 14-10 o/u (+6.5)......VERSUS Cowboys (and OVER)

p:margin>-5 and HF and p:DIV and DIV and p:ADL and line>-7 and month<11

That's a good find....this moves to 23-9 ATS (+4.8), 19-14 straight up if they lost at home. 

I have found that when an indicated play-on team doesn't come through, they often do so the next week, in the case of the Falcons...however as of now they are a public dog, which would keep me off of playing the Falcons.

On the pregame website, they are +7 at Westgate, +6' at betonline, and +6 at draftkings.......

  g)  A September home favorite of less than 7 points in weeks 2, 3 or 4 that is off an away loss that played in zero or less than three playoff games the previous season.....79-136-7 ATS (-3.1), 111-111 straight up (+0.5).....VERSUS Cowboys, Lions, Dolphins, Texans

Query text....

week < 5 and HF and p:AL and line > -7 and tpS(playoffs) < 3 and month = 9

  f)  An away divisional dog before week 5 off a home loss that was played on either Thursday or Monday.....11-3 ATS.....ON Bears

This moves to 6-1 ATS, 4-3 straight up if their present opponent is also off a loss.

Query text......

AD and week<5 and p:HL and DIV and p:day!=Sunday

Dallas is due to be a 1.5 point dog their next game...

https://pregame.com/game-center/?d=NaN&t=1&l=NaN&a=0&s=AwayRot&m=false&b=undefined&o=Current&c=All&k=

Query text....

HF and n:line>5 and week<5 and p:L

  e)  Publicly backed underdogs last week went 0-3 ATS, with losses on Miami, Detroit and Chicago.....this week so far, though things may change, those public dogs are the Patriots, Bucs and Falcons.

Plays so far, for 1.5 units

1)  Chiefs +1

2)  Titans +5'

3)  Jaguars +3'

  d)  A week 2 favorite that will be an underdog their next game....74-130-5 ATS (-3.3), 36.3%.....VERSUS Cardinals, Broncos, Dolphins, Rams, Lions, Cowboys, Bengals

  c)  A week 2 home dog off a loss facing a team off a win who will have the stronger next game point spread in comparison to their present opponent's next game line.....10-1-1 ATS (+9.1)......ON Titans, Chiefs

Chiefs in their lookahead line will be a 6.5 point favorite next week, while the Eagles will be four point favorites.  Titans are to be 2 point underdogs while Rams will be four point dogs.

Query text....

D and n:line - on:line < 0 and week = 2 and day != Monday and t:wins = 0 and o:wins = 1 and site = home

  a)  An underdog off a loss before November who will be at least a five point favorite their next game......126-74-4 ATS (+4.6).....ON Seahawks, Chiefs

  b)  A home favorite before week 5, off a loss that will be at least a five point underdog their next game....35-76 ATS (-5.7)...VERSUS Lions, Dolphins