Week 7 Indigo

Riders may be cancelled they 10 people with covid and seem to keeping it secret to everyone

Hey Freakster....ja, we'll see soon enough.  

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@Indigo999

 Shit, my bad, l was looking at week 2 instead, my lol.

Will be fading Chiefs for sure as well now.

Transplanted north american hey, but you have spent most of your adult life in Oz, well l would say you qualify as an Aussie sir.

Question: Do you now prefer to follow AFL or NFL? or is it a tie?

Cheers andy

@Indigo999

 you throw me off when you talk in third person, i have to go back and see if you wrote what i was reading. kidding of course

Not an AFL guy, but if I found a database with a 10 year history I would run some historical angles to see if I thought I could beat it and then I'd become a fan, it's like they say, "my favorite team is the team I have a ticket on"

When I first came to Australia they were at the top of everything, rugby union, swimming, cricket, etc.....now besides swimming their best sport seems to be basketball of all things. 

I like ice hockey...... 

True story,....I was taking a cab in Adelaide one day and said to the cabbie that I grew up in ice hockey country and he mentioned that they had a team in Adelaide and an Australian league,...he said "we have an ice hockey stadium and we sell out every game.", and I thought yeah, that's probably right as much as Aussies like their sport and if a fight broke out every once in awhile so much the better! 

I am going against the line move and taking the Tiger Cats +11....line moves so far this season have not been good for punters and one would have made fading the move....plus there is the CFL staff writers' consensus picks thingy that is now 2-7 ATS....from an earlier post here I mentioned the staff has the Bombers, Argos and the Lions this week.

And, I am adding another unit on the Redblacks this time against the spread.

Plays:

1)  Redblacks +125

2)  Tiger Cats +11

3)  Bombers -7

4)  Argos +6

5)  Redblacks +3

Yes. well, you haven't even met my 8 other personalities yet.....LOL.

I am not kidding anyone including myself so to be totally transparent....  It was pure luck. 

I wasn't going to give my picks this week since beating 75% is unrealistic.  It also is not my thread nor my aspire to be seen as some capping guru.  In my eyes, you are the guru I9.  However, you asked for my picks so I will humbly give them with warning caveat attached...

Ott +3

BC -10

Win @ Ed is undecided yet.  Cornholer sucked last year which is why he fell big in the depth department so why is the best team by far only giving up 7 points?  Something is fishy.  Leaning Ed +7 just because I believe the books are baiting the public to take Winnipeg.  Winnipeg should be - a gazillion in this game so what is the deal here.  This one goes to the X-file pile needing more investigating...

Sask -2.5

Good luck I9 and new guy J9.  Hopefully, I don't get too hurt falling back to Earth from that lofty height of 75%

@Indigo999

 Let me ask you something, in the NFL i set HF values from 1 to as high as 4 , because i dont follow CFL much , how do you set values for HF , you said you dont have a math model, those lines i posted were giving all teams 3 pts ...i know that cant be right , but i have to start somewhere.

In the history of the database, home field in the CFL in the regular season has been worth 2.5 points....however it has followed the pattern of the NFL and since 2015 it has only been worth 1.4 points and 1.2 points more than that in the playoffs.

However, interestingly enough the Western Division teams home field has been worth 4.3-4.5 points throughout.

Home field among  Eastern Division teams?...... it's negligible .....being worth 1.2 points overall and -1.1 points since 2015 in the East.

Yes, you may be on to something there with your Edmonton lean...I feel uneasy about the Bombers ability to  get up for this game and there is the staff writers that are totally onboard with the Bombers which is a red flag.

But then again I am uneasy about every game I'm on..........

Good fortune this weekend to ya.

I am not in the loop with injuries and sickness and everything else related to the status of players....the way the line has moved one would think something is up.

The Canadians here are usually good on this thread of letting us know if there's something like that going on.

@Indigo999

 so next week ill adjust my lines accordingly,1.2 for east teams and 4.4 for west ..

look ahead lines for next week, with updated HF from I9

ham pk mont

ssk -4 b.c

cgy -4 wpg

tor -1 Ott 

of course ill update after this weeks games 

Thanks Jets.....your future line between Toronto/Ottawa is a surprise, but of course everyone has a different take on things.

Good fortune on your CFL journey....it's a very bombastic league with HUGE swings...the game is similar to the NBA in that there is a lot of results that are predicated in what happens in the last 3 minutes of the game, as time doesn't run in the last 3 minutes, so it really ia 5-6 minute game in the last 3.

MTL is at home today.

@Indigo999

 so off last nights games i now have 

ham -1 mont

Tor -2 ott

No value with B.c Last night at that line so am still good with 1st half of teaser.

Question , what book should i look at for closing lines on those games, for now am just looking at cover scores and matchups and going by that. I am not sure where they get their  lines or closing lines.

Many SSK players have tested positive for COVID-19.  That explains the plunging line and the decision to move the game from Saturday to Sunday.

...what difference will ONE DAY make???

The only logical change, would be to cancel it altogether...for now.

Reschedule it until sometime in the "forseeable future", 1-2 months from now.

Oddly, top pickers favor Saskatchewan and total over in weekly leaders of king of covers contest.  Never mind Saskatchewan problems.

We have 10 minutes to go.....Argos outyarding Riders by over 200 yards.....teams on the road in that situation are 47-3 straight up winning by an average of 18.5 points/game and 45-5 ATS (+17.1)

Amazing.

Pinnacle is where the smart money is....I look at their lines as the rest of the books will follow what they have.

3-2 (the hard way) for the week,....Toronto figured out a way not to blow it in the end....they looked nothing like a title contender and I feel Hamilton is still the best team in the East.....K. Jones will sort out the quarterback issues that have plagued the Tiger Cats so far this season...their quarterback is a knucklehead, but maybe less so going forward.

Ottawa?...they are one of those teams that you kick yourself for betting on them when you lose.  I am not backing them for the foreseeable future.

1)  Redblacks ML loser

2)  Redblacks +2' loser

3)  Tiger Cats +11 winner

4)  Bombers -7 winner

5)  Argonauts +6 winner

Luckily for me I passed on the TOT-SAS game.  My "Injuries are Bullshxt" hypothesis did not work today.

I assume the CFL pushed the game back one day to hope for some negative COVID-19 tests.

I am getting my information on cfl.ca...that is the total extent of my knowledge of injuries, viruses, etc.....the information that the Riders had 10 players testing positive and some coaches also for covid was there either Tuesday or Wednesday.

And most times fading injury information is a sound concept....the Riders almost pulled it off today.

The cfl staff writers' picks that I am into this season is also there, usually by Wednesday.