Max Verstappen may not be a lead contender in the title fight this year, but that hasn't stopped the usual late-season Mad Max uprising, which could easily continue as we look at our United States Grand Prix prediction.
Verstappen is a sizable favorite ahead of a marquee event on the F1 calendar while sitting at 47% to snatch yet another victory. Kimi Antonelli, who continues to lead the drivers' standings by a wide margin, is behind him in the Formula One odds at 27%.
Verstappen and Antonelli have often been battling near the top of the grid lately. We could easily see the next round of their high-speed tilts on Sunday, Oct. 25, beginning at 4 p.m. ET from the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, TX.
📊 United States Grand Prix odds
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| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Max Verstappen |
47% |
 Kimi Antonelli |
27% |
| George Russell |
10% |
 Charles Leclerc |
8% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
6% |
 Lando Norris |
6% |
| Isack Hadjar |
2% |
| Oscar Piastri |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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🏎️ United States Grand Prix favorites
Max Verstappen (47%)
Verstappen started excruciatingly slow by his galaxy-level standards this season, landing on the podium just once across the first seven races. That's a significant contrast to what we've been seeing lately, with both Verstappen and Red Bull finding their form.
He's now recorded a top-two finish in five of the past seven races, including two straight wins. Success is a familiar outcome for Verstappen at the Circuit of the Americas too, as he's won four times there since 2021.
Kimi Antonelli (27%)
Verstappen may be doing his usual late-season soaring bit, but Antonelli has largely been in the fight and keeping pace. The eight-time winner this season is only one race removed from challenging Verstappen until the bitter end in Malaysia, finishing 2.3 seconds behind in second.
However, he did fall much further back in Singapore at 24.6 seconds behind Verstappen, though Antonelli still managed to salvage a podium finish. Mercedes have confirmed they'll run the latest upgrade package on both cars in Austin, boosting Antonelli's chances to push Verstappen aside.
🧠 How I'm picking the United States Grand Prix
The United States Grand Prix is a much-anticipated event due to the extravagance of it all and the glorious background in Austin where the winding circuit lies. But it presents a varied challenge for drivers, with both high-speed and low-speed areas, and an overall bumpy surface.
It's tempting to lean toward experience then, but the more alluring factor is the development race. In addition to the upgrade package for Mercedes, McLaren will also make modest but meaningful updates ahead of Austin, in part aimed at improving braking.
Keeping those improvements in mind is critical ahead of race day, as Mercedes has certainly shown it can be the class of the field before, and McLaren enjoyed a good run of form over the summer, when Lando Norris won two straight races.
🏆 Previous United States Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Kimi Räikkönen |
Ferrari |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
❓ United States Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the United States Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is favored at 47%, followed by Kimi Antonelli at 27%, and George Russell at 10%.
When and where is the United States Grand Prix?
The United States Grand Prix takes place at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, on Sunday, Oct. 25, 2026, starting at 4 p.m. ET.
How can I watch the United States Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the United States Grand Prix in 2025?
Max Verstappen won the 2025 United States Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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