The Formula 1 season rolls on to one of the most physically demanding events on the calendar, and I've found some quality value with my Singapore Grand Prix predictions.
That starts with Kimi Antonelli, the championship leader who isn't atop the Formula One odds for this race despite amassing victories and podiums.
That honor belongs to Max Verstappen, who's the favorite to win on Sunday, Oct. 11, at the Marina Bay Street Circuit, and he's fresh off his first victory of the season in Malaysia.
My picks spot an opportunity to back Antonelli at a better price than usual, along with Lewis Hamilton and Nico Hulkenberg, who both bring experience to a track where that's vital.
It all starts on Sunday at 8 a.m. ET.
📊 Singapore Grand Prix odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Max Verstappen |
31% |
 Kimi Antonelli |
25% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
15% |
| Charles Leclerc |
12% |
 Lando Norris |
12% |
| Isack Hadjar |
5% |
| Oscar Piastri |
4% |
| George Russell |
4% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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🏁 Singapore Grand Prix predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Driver | Pick | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli |
Winner | Oct. 11 | 25% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
Podium | Oct. 11 | 44% |
 Nico Hulkenberg |
Top-10 finish | Oct. 11 | 40% |
🏎️ Singapore Grand Prix Picks
Picks were made on Thursday, Oct. 8, before qualifying.
Race pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (25%)
Riding with the points leader is always appealing given the remarkable form the youngster is in right now. Max Verstappen was flying in Malaysia, and especially on the straights.
Yet even amid a tough day for Mercedes, with George Russell's power unit failing, Antonelli still mounted a significant challenge and finished 2.3 seconds behind Verstappen in second.
Russell's misfortunes make Antonelli more alluring this week, too. Antonelli's teammate has been given a penalty since the team has already used the maximum four engine changes for him. He'll start at the back of the pack, dramatically decreasing his chances of contending for a win.
Mercedes will then prioritize Antonelli in its race strategy, especially because the narrow nature of Marina Bay makes overtaking a constant obstacle. That's an ideal situation for the championship favorite who has finished no worse than second in five of the past seven races, a stretch when he's won three times.
Prop pick: Lewis Hamilton podium finish (44%)
It was a different time in many ways for F1, including Lewis Hamilton being on a now-rival team, but his four previous wins at the challenging Marina Bay circuit are still meaningful.
He's quite familiar with the physical challenges of a street course with intensely tight sections and high downforce, and navigating that is all usually done amid punishing humidity.
Toss in the bumpy asphalt and the night race under the lights, and the value of experience will surely come into play while navigating some of the heaviest braking zones on the calendar.
That's why Hamilton may even be able to challenge Antonelli and Verstappen. Though given the lack of overtaking opportunities, a podium finish is the safer play.
The veteran can reliably navigate the twisting layout and keep the car away from the wall. That's a simple yet key attribute at Marina Bay, as it will set Hamilton up to benefit from a safety car, and the last six Singapore races show there's a 67% chance of one being deployed.
Prop pick: Nico Hulkenberg top-10 finish (40%)
Nico Hulkenberg has quietly been putting together a quality run of late. He may not always get the results to show for it, but the Audi driver is consistently putting himself in position to finish in the points.
That was the case in Malaysia, where Hulkenberg started 15th and finished 11th. His surge was even better in Azerbaijan, moving from 18th to 11th, and prior to that there was a stretch of points finishes in three of four events.
Qualifying is everything given the meandering ways of the Marina Bay course. And in 13 career appearances at the circuit, Hulkenberg has qualified lower than 13th just once.
🥇Post-qualifying strategy
Russell will be at the back of the grid due to his penalty. Depending on how qualifying shakes out in front of him, his price in the top-10 finisher and biggest mover markets could become significantly more appealing as the weekend progresses.
The other post-qualifying angle to watch would be if an experienced driver like Hamilton posts an especially blazing lap. That would make them a threat in the fastest-lap market, even if they don't end up being a winner or podium contender amid a race when overtaking will be difficult.
Remember, Hamilton posted the fastest lap time ever at Marina Bay last year, putting up a 1:33.81.
🧠 How I'm picking the Singapore Grand Prix
While it's not on Monaco's level in terms of overtaking or a lack of it, the tight confines of the Marina Bay circuit make both qualifying and experience critical.
I'm leaning on Hamilton for the latter, and he's historically thrived at this event. His racecraft and tire management can also put him in an ideal position to take advantage of what feels like an inevitable safety car or two, as calamity awaits around the winding 4.93 km circuit.
On the qualifying front, Hulkenberg has produced a long history of success on that front at Marina Bay, at least in terms of positioning himself well to get into the points. He's qualified 12th or better 10 times this season as well.
🏆 Previous Singapore Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | George Russell |
Mercedes |
| 2024 | Lando Norris |
McLaren |
| 2023 | Carlos Sainz Jr. |
Ferrari |
| 2022 | Sergio Perez |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Sebastian Vettel |
Ferrari |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg |
Mercedes |
❓ Singapore Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Singapore Grand Prix?
Max Verstappen is favored at 31%, followed by Kimi Antonelli at 25% and Lewis Hamilton at 15%.
When and where is the Singapore Grand Prix?
The Singapore Grand Prix takes place at the Marina Bay Street Circuit in Singapore, on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026, starting at 8 a.m. ET.
How can I watch the Singapore Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the Singapore Grand Prix in 2025?
George Russell won the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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