It'll be a unique race weekend in every way, and my Bahrain Grand Prix predictions will assess an event not actually taking place in Bahrain.
The race, which was originally slated for April in its usual slot on the F1 calendar, was canceled initially due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Then in July it was announced that Malaysia will host the event on Bahrain's behalf.
So now we have a true oddity as F1 returns to Malaysia for the first time in nine years. There's an element of unfamiliarity for all as the drivers descend upon the Sepang International Circuit, though unsurprisingly, the usual suspects still sit atop the Formula One odds for the race.
Qualifying is set for Saturday, Oct. 3 at 4 a.m. ET, with the race on Sunday at 3 a.m. ET.
📊 Bahrain Grand Prix odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
41% |
| George Russell |
22% |
 Max Verstappen |
15% |
 Lando Norris |
12% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
6% |
| Charles Leclerc |
6% |
| Oscar Piastri |
5% |
| Isack Hadjar |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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🏁 Bahrain Grand Prix predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Driver | Pick | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen |
Winner | Oct. 4 | 15% |
| Lando Norris |
Podium | Oct. 4 | 43% |
| Charles Leclerc |
Top-five finish | Oct. 4 | 58% |
🏎️ Bahrain Grand Prix Picks
Picks were made on Thursday, Oct. 1, before qualifying.
Race pick: Max Verstappen to win (15%)
Verstappen has now been on the podium in five of the past six races, including three second-place results, and most recently finishing a mere 0.196 seconds behind George Russell at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix last week.
He's frequently been challenging Russell and Antonelli in their powerful Mercedes setups, and although it's difficult to draw on past races from 2017 and beyond at the Sepang International Circuit, we can look at comparable tracks where Verstappen has been enjoying success.
Sepang, which is 5.5 km in length, features two lengthy straights that both go into hairpin turns. That leads to plenty of overtaking opportunities, but it also places a high demand on drivers for precision in heavy braking zones.
That description is similar to the Bahrain International Circuit, where this event is usually held, and Verstappen has taken two of the past three races there. It's also similar to the Circuit of the Americas due to the multiple long straights leading into tight cornering. Verstappen has also been dominant there while winning four of the past five races.
Prop pick: Lando Norris podium finish (43%)
Norris spent much of the day struggling during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. But he was beginning to surge in the final stint, leading to promise during a restart before Franco Colapinto's lockup took him out.
But prior to that he had been on the podium in three of four races, including two wins. What's more encouraging though is that, similar to Verstappen, he's been logging plenty of success on comparable circuits that feature a challenging mix of high-speed sectors and intense braking.
He's finished second in two of the past four races at the Circuit of the Americas, and Norris posted a third last year in Bahrain.
Another element that could benefit Norris is the threat of weather. The event has been declared a heat hazard race, a distinction F1 uses when the heat index is expected to exceed 87 degrees on race day.
Prop pick: Charles Leclerc top-five finish (58%)
It's been a little while since Charles Leclerc's last podium, which came during a second-place finish at the Belgian Grand Prix on July 19, just after his win at the British Grand Prix. But Leclerc and Ferrari have consistently been pressuring Mercedes, too.
As a result, Leclerc has finished among the top five 10 times this season. Those repeated finishes on or near the podium give Leclerc a strong floor with this pick, especially alongside my two other selections that come with a lower percentage.
He's not an ideal winner or podium pick due to Ferrari's recent issues with speed on straights. But even while battling that and waiting for a further upgrade to the car, Leclerc has been able to hang with or just back of the leaders. Qualifying well has helped too, as Leclerc has been on the front row in four of the past eight races.
🥇Post-qualifying strategy
The race-day forecast calls for track temperatures that could reach up to 114 degrees when factoring in the high humidity. That'll present a difficult challenge for all, including the dominant Mercedes duo. There's a lower percentage chance of rain for the race (30%), but that can change swiftly in the often stormy Malaysian climate.
With all that in mind, and the Mercedes drivers and Verstappen likely to qualify well, it'll be wise to target a driver in the middle tier of the grid who's been in good form, and will therefore be lurking and in position to benefit if the race conditions worsen. That will likely apply to Liam Lawson, the Racing Bulls driver who has finished in the points for much of the season.
🧠 How I'm picking the Bahrain Grand Prix
You'll want to grab as much familiarity as you can ahead of a weekend with little of it. That means leaning on results from tracks with a similar layout, or that demand the same physical strain from drivers.
That brings us to Verstappen and Norris, who have been thriving at the Circuit of the Americas and the Bahrain International Circuit. Locking in on McLaren overall is wise too after the team made upgrades ahead of the Azerbaijan race, including reintroducing its "H-wing" concept in the rear. That should lead to continued quality performances.
🏆 Previous Bahrain Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Charles Leclerc |
Ferrari |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Sebastian Vettel |
Ferrari |
❓ Bahrain Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Bahrain Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli leads at 41%, ahead of George Russell at 22% and Max Verstappen at 15%.
When and where is the Bahrain Grand Prix?
The Bahrain Grand Prix takes place at the Sepang International Circuit in Malaysia, on Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026, starting at 3 a.m. ET.
How can I watch the Bahrain Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the Bahrain Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri won the 2025 Bahrain Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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