The 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship odds are effectively Kimi Antonelli's race to lose as he gears up for this weekend in Azerbaijan, looking for his third win of the month.
Max Verstappen, despite winning the viral 100-person go-kart race last weekend, is effectively out of the running. Lando Norris is the distant second-favorite after securing a podium finish in Madrid, but at this point, nobody is a realistic option to surpass the 20-year-old Antonelli.
Meanwhile, the 2026 Constructors' Championship odds still go through the Silver Arrows, led by Antonelli and George Russell, as they continue to distance themselves. Ferrari, a clear second-favorite not long ago, is effectively out of the race.
Let's take a look at the latest Formula 1 odds to win the Drivers' and Constructors' Championships.
F1 Drivers' Championship odds
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, as of 9-21.
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Drivers' Championship odds movement
- Kimi Antonelli jumps from the 91% to 93% favorite as he has a whopping 81-point lead in the standings. He's over 100 points ahead of third-place Lewis Hamilton.
- Lando Norris (3%) usurped George Russell (2%) as the distant second-favorite after a podium finish in Spain.
- Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen are off the leaderboard as Antonelli yet again increased the gap.
Drivers' Championship favorite
Kimi Antonelli (93%)
Kimi Antonelli was an early betting favorite despite the 20-year-old having never won an F1 race prior to this year.
He won his maiden title in Shanghai, then came out on top at the Japanese GP to practically draw even in odds with Russell.
Antonelli caught and passed his Mercedes teammate following his third straight victory in Miami and extended that lead after winning in Montreal and Monaco.
He's maintained this position ever since and only strengthened it with his Spanish Grand Prix win.
F1 Constructors' Championship odds
Odds as of 9-21. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Past Drivers' Championship winners
| Year | Champion | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Lando Norris |
 Max Verstappen |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Lando Norris |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Sergio Perez |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
 Charles Leclerc |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Lewis Hamilton |
| 2020 | Max Verstappen |
Valtteri Bottas |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Valtteri Bottas |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Sebastian Vettel |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Sebastian Vettel |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg |
Lewis Hamilton |
Past Constructors' Championship winners
| Years | Champion | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | McLaren |
Mercedes |
| 2024 | McLaren |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Red Bull |
Mercedes |
| 2022 | Red Bull |
Ferrari |
| 2021 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
| 2020 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2018 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2017 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2016 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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