Although the 2026 F1 Drivers' Championship odds are effectively Kimi Antonelli's race to lose, George Russell jumped up to second-favorite with a big win in Azerbaijan this weekend.
The win catapulted Russell ahead of Lando Norris, despite an impressive month from the McLaren driver.
Meanwhile, the 2026 Constructors' Championship odds still favor the Silver Arrows, led by Antonelli and Russell, as they continue to pull away. Their top two drivers have won 11 of the 15 races this year.
Ferrari, a clear second-favorite not long ago, is effectively out of the race.
Let's take a look at the latest Formula 1 odds to win the Drivers' and Constructors' Championships.
F1 Drivers' Championship odds
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps, as of 9-28.
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Drivers' Championship odds movement
- Kimi Antonelli dips slightly from 93% to 91% after a fifth-place finish in Baku.
- George Russell (5%) surpassed Lando Norris (1%) as the distant second-favorite after his Azerbaijan win.
- Lewis Hamilton is the only other driver at 1% or higher.
Drivers' Championship favorite
Kimi Antonelli (91%)
Kimi Antonelli was an early betting favorite despite the 20-year-old having never won an F1 race prior to this year.
He won his maiden title in Shanghai, then came out on top at the Japanese GP to practically draw even in odds with Russell.
Antonelli caught and passed his Mercedes teammate following his third straight victory in Miami and extended that lead after winning in Montreal and Monaco.
He's maintained this position ever since, and it would take an absolute miracle for anyone to catch him at this point in the season.
F1 Constructors' Championship odds
Odds as of 9-28. For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Past Drivers' Championship winners
| Year | Champion | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 |  Lando Norris |
 Max Verstappen |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Lando Norris |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Sergio Perez |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
 Charles Leclerc |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Lewis Hamilton |
| 2020 | Max Verstappen |
Valtteri Bottas |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Valtteri Bottas |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Sebastian Vettel |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Sebastian Vettel |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg |
Lewis Hamilton |
Past Constructors' Championship winners
| Years | Champion | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | McLaren |
Mercedes |
| 2024 | McLaren |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Red Bull |
Mercedes |
| 2022 | Red Bull |
Ferrari |
| 2021 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
| 2020 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2018 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2017 | Mercedes |
Ferrari |
| 2016 | Mercedes |
Red Bull |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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