After a come-from-nowhere win at Monza to remind everyone this F1 season is his, it can only be Kimi Antonelli as the pick for my Spanish Grand Prix predictions.
The Mercedes man has been given a 35% probability in the prediction markets to take home his eighth win of the year.
Lando Norris, who just had his two-race win streak snapped in Italy, is next with a 22% probability, while Antonelli’s teammate, a potentially still shell-shocked George Russell, checks in at 15%.
Let's dive into my Spanish Grand Prix predictions for Sept. 13 while looking at the Formula 1 odds.
🏁 Spanish Grand Prix predictions
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📊 Spanish Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
34% |
 Lando Norris |
22% |
| George Russell |
15% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
11% |
| Charles Leclerc |
8% |
 Max Verstappen |
9% |
| Oscar Piastri |
6% |
 Franco Colapinto |
1% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
🏎️ Spanish Grand Prix Picks
Race pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (35%)
The Madring is a brand-new street circuit for the second stop in Spain, presenting a wholly new challenge for the drivers. With no back history, we’re left with what can be gleaned from this season, and Antonelli is the easy choice before qualifying.
The new course has been drawing comparisons to the Miami Grand Prix layout, a race that Antonelli won. Mercedes also fared well on street circuits last year, with Russell winning in Singapore and the two Mercedes drivers on the podium in Vegas.
Antonelli is currently the sport’s leading driver, and he's making moves with the circuit’s top engine. He also possesses a mental edge on the field, with the youngster knowing he can start anywhere and still claim the checkered flag. That’s tough to beat.
Prop pick: Max Verstappen podium finish (32%)
This is a pick that’s as much about value as it is about the driver.
Lando Norris is coming off a fourth-place finish in Italy. But the markets are showing him behind only Antonelli to finish on the podium at 60%.
So I’ll shift to Max Verstappen, who has finished on the podium in three of his last four starts, including a third last week in Italy.
These tighter street circuits should help him stay in the race, as he’s notoriously good at finding the racing line as close to the concrete as possible. He maneuvers these tracks with an aggressive, late-braking style.
🧠 How I'm picking the Spanish Grand Prix
The Madring is a 5.4-km hybrid race track, combining public streets with built-for-race asphalt. It will challenge drivers with 22 corners, varying elevation changes, and two short tunnels.
Another wager I’m considering after Antonelli and Verstappen is Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium (33%). He'll want to bounce back after crashing out in Italy.
The Ferrari man will need to get the work done in qualifying. But if he can lurk near the top, Leclerc has always been great on technical courses, like Monaco and Baku.
While Norris isn’t my best podium wager, it would be foolish to discount either McLaren driver this weekend. That car is perhaps the best in the field at high speed, sweeping corners. With plenty of those to navigate in Madrid, Norris and Oscar Piastri (25%) can stay in contention, as the superior horsepower from Mercedes or Ferrari won't blow away their car.
Even with a 54% probability of finding the podium, I don’t know where Russell is at mentally right now. His second-place finish in Italy was the Brit's best in four races, but it might have been the most deflating result for him all season. He’s yet to find the podium in Miami or Monaco this year, and a street course doesn’t feel like a current strength for him.
📋 Spanish Grand Prix favorites
Antonelli is soaring following perhaps his most impressive outing during the young driver's career. He ascended quickly during the Italian Grand Prix after starting in 19th, eventually taking his home race. It was remarkably his seventh victory of the season, and fourth straight podium finish.
The Mercedes driver seems reenergized, leading to the significant win probability gap between him and everyone else. However, Lando Norris has been rising too after winning two of the previous three races, resulting in the also sizable chasm beyond him.
🏆 Previous Spanish Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
❓ Spanish Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Spanish Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli, who leads the drivers' standings and just won the Italian Grand Prix, is the favorite at 35%.
When and where is the Spanish Grand Prix?
The Spanish Grand Prix is held in Madrid, and it'll be the first time the event is taking place at the Madring. It's slated for Sept. 13 at 9 a.m. ET.
How can I watch the Spanish Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1.
Who won the Spanish Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) won the Spanish Grand Prix last year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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