Calling it one of the best laps of his career, Lando Norris has placed himself in a prime position to win the inaugural F1 stop at Madring.
The McLaren man captured the pole ahead of points leader Kimi Antonelli by a mere 0.011 seconds, setting him up for a third win in the last four races.
The prediction markets still favor Antonelli, though, at 40% probability, a few ticks above Norris' 38%.
Max Verstappen, who will start third, sits at 13%, with no other driver above 10% probability to take the checkered flag.
Continue reading for Formula One odds, predictions, and free picks for the Spanish Grand Prix on September 13.
🏁 Spanish Grand Prix predictions
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📊 Spanish Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
46% |
 Lando Norris |
38% |
 Max Verstappen |
15% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
7% |
| Charles Leclerc |
5% |
| George Russell |
4% |
| Oscar Piastri |
3% |
 Franco Colapinto |
1% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
🏎️ Spanish Grand Prix Picks
Race pick: Kimi Antonelli to win (40%)
Kudos to Lando Norris on the bounce-back in Madrid, after his 2-race win streak ended last week in Italy with an eighth-place start and fourth-place finish.
But Antonelli has proven to be a great driver in all facets.
While he has the luxury of driving the sport's current best car/engine, he's also shown he can win in all circumstances and conditions.
While Norris' result came out of the blue in Saturday qualifying – never on top of the timesheets at any stage across the weekend in Madrid – Antonelli was setting the fastest times through practice sessions at the new Madrid hybrid circuit.
The 19-year-old has shown an immediate comfort level with Madrid's high-speed corners and heavy braking zones. With these close probabilities, I'll ride with the current points leader.
Prop pick: Lewis Hamilton Podium Finish (32%)
Hoping you jumped on Max Verstappen in the pre-qualifying stages, as his probability spiked from 32% to its current 56% after finishing third.
No shame in staying on that wager, but if you are searching for a little value, I'd look down the Ferrari alley and target Lewis Hamilton (51%).
The Englishman nearly captured the pole at Madrid, so the car is still top-notch at handling tight corners, which means he should be in contention Sunday.
Can Hamilton seal the deal, though? A wildly promising run in the middle of the season – a win and four podiums over five races – has been dulled by four straight off the podium.
The prediction markets are strong enough to buy the shares and find out.
🔢 Spanish Grand Prix starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando Norris | 2 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | 4 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | 6 | George Russell |
| 7 | Oscar Piastri | 8 | Liam Lawson |
| 9 | Franco Colapinto | 10 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 11 | Nico Hulkenberg | 12 | Gabriel Bortoleto |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon | 14 | Pierre Gasly |
| 15 | Yuki Tsunoda | 16 | Alex Albon |
| 17 | Carlos Sainz Jr. | 18 | Fernando Alonso |
| 19 | Sergio Perez | 20 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 21 | Oliver Bearman | 22 | Lance Stoll |
🧠 How I'm picking the Spanish Grand Prix
The Madring is a 5.4-km hybrid race track that combines public streets with built-for-race asphalt. It will challenge drivers with 22 corners, varying elevation changes, and two short tunnels.
Another wager I’m considering after Antonelli and Verstappen is Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium (33%). He'll want to bounce back after crashing out in Italy.
The Ferrari man will need to get the work done in qualifying. But if he can lurk near the top, Leclerc has always been great on technical courses, like Monaco and Baku.
While Norris isn’t my best podium wager, it would be foolish to discount either McLaren driver this weekend. That car is perhaps the best in the field at high speed, sweeping corners.
With plenty of those to navigate in Madrid, Norris and Oscar Piastri (25%) can stay in contention, as the superior horsepower from Mercedes or Ferrari won't blow away their car.
Even with a 54% probability of finding the podium, I don’t know where Russell is at mentally right now. His second-place finish in Italy was the Brit's best in four races, but it might have been his most deflating result all season. He’s yet to find the podium in Miami or Monaco this year, and a street course doesn’t feel like a current strength for him.
📋 Spanish Grand Prix favorites
Antonelli is soaring after perhaps the most impressive outing of his young career. He ascended quickly during the Italian Grand Prix after starting in 19th, eventually taking his home race. It was his seventh victory of the season and his fourth straight podium finish.
The Mercedes driver seems reenergized, creating a significant win-probability gap between him and everyone else. However, Lando Norris has been rising too, after winning two of the previous three races, creating a sizable chasm behind him.
🏆 Previous Spanish Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Oscar Piastri |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2020 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
❓ Spanish Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Spanish Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli, who leads the drivers' standings and just won the Italian Grand Prix, is the favorite at 35%.
When and where is the Spanish Grand Prix?
The Spanish Grand Prix is held in Madrid, and it'll be the first time the event is taking place at the Madring. It's slated for Sept. 13 at 9 a.m. ET.
How can I watch the Spanish Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1.
Who won the Spanish Grand Prix in 2025?
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) won the Spanish Grand Prix last year.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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