Suddenly, slumbering reigning points champion Lando Norris has awoken in the Formula 1 odds. He'll look to ride his McLaren to a third consecutive victory, as the title race stops in Monza for the Italian Grand Prix.
He’s leading the early prediction markets, as he’s trading at 34%, but we’ll see how he navigates the fastest track on the F1 circuit without the fastest car.
The McLaren star is followed by George Russell (29%) and the Ferrari duo of Lewis Hamilton (12%) and Charles Leclerc (11%). Read below for my Italian Grand Prix predictions and free betting picks for Sunday, Sept. 6.
🏁 Italian Grand Prix predictions
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📊 Italian Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Lando Norris |
34% |
 George Russell |
29% |
 Lewis Hamilton |
12% |
| Charles Leclerc |
11% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
9% |
 Max Verstappen |
6% |
| Oscar Piastri |
5% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
🏎️ Italian Grand Prix picks
Race pick: George Russell to win (29%)
Perhaps it’s fitting that the grid known as the Temple of Speed would play best to this year’s best car, and that's the Mercedes.
George Russell becomes the nominal choice because current points leader and Mercedes teammate Kimi Antonelli is going to take a still-to-be-determined grid penalty for taking a new engine into the race.
Russell is coming off a third-place finish in the Netherlands after starting second, a much-needed podium after a 22nd in Belgium and a 7th-place finish in Hungary.
Norris finished second at Monza a year ago, but the McLaren was the best engine going at the time. He should be in the mix, but technology will trump his three-peat bid.
Prop pick: Charles Leclerc podium finish (53%)
The Ferrari guys are definitely the fan favorites at Monza, and the team is introducing an upgraded power unit on home turf, expected to unlock an extra 15 horsepower.
While Lewis Hamilton is tied for the most career wins on the Monza circuit, he hasn’t tasted victory here since the 2017/2018 season.
His teammate, though, has won the race twice since then, winning most recently in 2024 to match his Italian GP crown from 2019. He certainly knows how to navigate this track.
Charles Leclerc has been close each of the last two races, finishing fourth in Hungary and fifth at last week’s Dutch Grand Prix.
🧠 How I'm picking the Italian Grand Prix
Monza is for the speed demons, as cars spend about 80% of each lap at full throttle, with speeds hitting the range of 211-217 miles per hour on long straightaways.
It’s why Mercedes and Ferrari — the two best cars on the circuit this year — are so highly regarded this week, and why they litter my pre-qualification picks.
Even Antonelli, who could start as far back as last, is still traded at the fifth-highest rate of 7% to win and 28% to podium, a show of respect for both the driver and the engine that could navigate to somewhere in contention. Drivers looking for value in a long shot usually don’t get to aim at the current points leader.
We haven’t yet talked about Norris or McLaren teammate Oscar Piastri, but McLaren has enjoyed a double podium finish in back-to-back years. Norris doesn’t offer great value to podium (70%), though Piastri is set at a nice 21% to finish Top 3.
📋 Italian Grand Prix favorites
Lando Norris (34%) has cruised to back-to-back race wins and is a deserved favorite this week despite never winning at Monza. He did finish runner-up last year and has two more podium finishes to his name in his eight career tries.
George Russell and his laser-quick Mercedes car are second on the board at 29%. Russell hasn't won since the Austrian GP in June, but he's finished on the podium twice since then and is in a much better position relative to teammate Kimi Antonelli (9%).
The Ferrari pairing make up the next two spots, and they have a combined seven wins at the track, the latest being Charles Leclerc (11%) in 2024.
🏆 Previous Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo |
McLaren |
❓ Italian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Italian Grand Prix?
Lando Norris is the Italian Grand Prix favorite.
When and where is the Italian Grand Prix?
The Italian Grand Prix will be held at Circuit Zandvoort at 8 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 6.
How can I watch the Italian Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1.
Who won the Italian Grand Prix in 2025?
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) is the defending champion of this race.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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