It’s likely the biggest surprise on the Formula 1 odds board, as unheralded Alpine driver Pierre Gasly secured pole in qualifying for the Italian Grand Prix.
However, prediction markets aren’t convinced he can carry that momentum into Sunday’s race at Monza, giving him just a 10% probability of capturing the checkered flag.
George Russell, who will start second on the front row, still owns the highest probability at 49%, and I'm backing him in my Italian Grand Prix predictions and free betting picks for Sept. 6.
🏁 Italian Grand Prix predictions
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📊 Italian Grand Prix odds
| Driver |  Probability |
|---|---|
 George Russell |
49% |
 Charles Leclerc |
18% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
12% |
 Pierre Gasly |
10% |
 Lando Norris |
8% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
7% |
| Oscar Piastri |
7% |
 Max Verstappen |
6% |
Odds from Polymarket, one of our best prediction market apps.
🏎️ Italian Grand Prix picks
Race pick: George Russell to win (49%)
I’m not sure this could have set up any better for George Russell to claim his third checkered flag of the season.
Pierre Gasly has finished 10th or worse in five straight starts, so passing him seems like a formality. Oscar Piastri has struggled to just two podiums this year and has a clearly inferior car, while Ferrari’s supposed horsepower boost has never materialized.
Mercedes is the fastest car on the track here, and with Kimi Antonelli needing to work his way up from the back, Russell should cruise to a win in Italy.
Prop pick: Pierre Gasly podium finish (26%)
I’m adamant the 30-year-old Frenchman won’t win, but Gasly has proven he can run fast on this course. Could he hang on for his first podium finish of 2026?
Gasly has some history here: In 2020, he secured his first F1 race victory for AlphaTauri from way back in 10th.
If Ferrari can’t get the car up to the top speeds expected at Monza, Gasly could pull off the boldest out-of-nowhere finish of the season.
🔢 Italian Grand Prix starting grid
| Position | Driver | Position | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pierre Gasly | 2 | George Russell |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri | 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Lewis Hamilton | 6 | Max Verstappen |
| 7 | Kimi Antonelli | 8 | Franco Colapinto |
| 9 | Lando Norris | 10 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 11 | Gabriel Bortoletto | 12 | Oliver Bearman |
| 13 | Nico Hulkenberg | 14 | Liam Lawson |
| 15 | Carlos Sainz | 16 | Esteban Ocon |
| 17 | Yuki Tsunoda | 18 | Alex Albon |
| 19 | Valtteri Bottas | 20 | Sergio Perez |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso | 22 | Lance Stroll |
🏆 Previous Italian Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2024 | Charles Leclerc |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Daniel Ricciardo |
McLaren |
❓ Italian Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Italian Grand Prix?
George Russell is the Italian Grand Prix favorite following Saturday's qualifying.
When and where is the Italian Grand Prix?
The Italian Grand Prix will be held at Autodromo Nazionale Monza at 8 a.m. ET on Sunday, Sept. 6.
How can I watch the Italian Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1.
Who won the Italian Grand Prix in 2025?
Max Verstappen (Red Bull) is the defending champion of this race.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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