A coronation could be ahead for Kimi Antonelli, with the runaway points leader and impressive young Mercedes driver sitting as the favorite in the Mexico City Grand Prix odds.
Antonelli will enter this weekend with a colossal 123-point lead in the drivers' standings over his teammate George Russell. There are plenty of clinching scenarios for him, but here's the simplest one: If he finishes ninth or better, he'll earn his first championship at the age of just 20.
He enters as the 38% favorite, though the late-season surge from Max Verstappen continues, and the Red Bull star is narrowly behind Antonelli at 36%. There's a significant gap to Charles Leclerc in third at 9%, though he's been looking feisty lately too.
Let's look deeper at the Formula One odds ahead of what could be a historic weekend.
📊 Mexico City Grand Prix odds
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| Driver |  |
|---|---|
 Kimi Antonelli |
38% |
 Max Verstappen |
36% |
 Charles Leclerc |
9% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
7% |
| George Russell |
6% |
 Lando Norris |
5% |
| Isack Hadjar |
2% |
| Oscar Piastri |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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🏎️ Mexico City Grand Prix favorites
Kimi Antonelli (38%)
Antonelli has won nine races overall this season, including the United States Grand Prix this past weekend. He's now finished on the podium in seven of his last eight races, a run that's included four victories.
Racing at any level comes with a certain amount of unpredictability and happenstance. But given his sparkling form, it feels like it would take a truly bizarre event to keep Antonelli off the podium, let alone him finishing lower than ninth.
He's the deserving favorite, though he'll face a familiar battle against an established veteran and four-time champion who has been thriving at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodríguez.
Max Verstappen (36%)
Mad Max has been on a sizzling run himself while finishing second or better in four of his last five races, a stretch that's included two wins. But what's even more encouraging for his chances in Mexico City is how much Verstappen has been dominating at this event.
Verstappen has been the most successful driver ever at the Mexico City Grand Prix, and it's not especially close. He's logged five wins, with Lewis Hamilton a distant second with two. A key feature of the Autodromo Hermanos Rodríguez is simply its location, as it sits over 2 km above sea level. That comes with unique physical strain, giving Verstappen an advantage with his experience.
🧠 How I'm picking the Mexico City Grand Prix
The elevation is a key feature on Sunday, but to go along with that there are also several lengthy straights that provide overtaking opportunities. As alluring as they may be due to recent results, that's enough to shy away from the Ferrari drivers, as the team's setup has been shown to lack straight-line speed, at least compared to its chief rivals.
The podium market may offer more appealing value since Antonelli and Verstappen are sprinting away. Look toward Lando Norris, who won in Mexico City last year and has been scrappy near the top of the grid recently.
🏆 Previous Mexico City Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Lando Norris |
McLaren |
| 2024 | Carlos Sainz Jr. |
Ferrari |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2021 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2019 | Lewis Hamilton |
Mercedes |
| 2018 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
| 2017 | Max Verstappen |
Red Bull |
❓ Mexico City Grand Prix betting FAQs
Who is favored to win the Mexico City Grand Prix?
Kimi Antonelli is favored at 38%, with Max Verstappen close behind at 36%, and Charles Leclerc in third but far back at 9%.
When and where is the Mexico City Grand Prix?
The Mexico City Grand Prix takes place at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City, Mexico, on Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, starting at 3 p.m. ET.
How can I watch the Mexico City Grand Prix?
Apple TV is the exclusive home of F1 in the U.S.
Who won the Mexico City Grand Prix in 2025?
Carlos Sainz Jr. won the 2025 Mexico City Grand Prix.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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