Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back and better than ever.
The reigning NBA MVP has registered back-to-back 30+ point outings after sitting out nine games with an abdominal strain. His sparkling return-to-form has caused his odds to move from -140 during the height of his injury to -260 today.
Let's take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds below as SGA and the Thunder enter the league's stretch drive.
🏀2026 NBA MVP odds
| Team |  |
Movement |
|---|---|---|
 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander |
-260 | ▲ |
 Nikola Jokic |
+450 | ▼ |
 Cade Cunningham |
+650 | ▼ |
 Victor Wembanyama |
+1800 | -- |
 Jaylen Brown |
+2500 | -- |
 Luka Doncic |
+7500 | ▼ |
 Donovan Mitchell |
+20000 | ▼ |
 Anthony Edwards |
+25000 | -- |
 Jalen Brunson |
+50000 | -- |
 Tyrese Maxey |
+50000 | -- |
Odds from bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's return had an immediate impact on the Top 3 this past week as Nikola Jokic's odds lengthened from +275 to +450 and Cade Cunningham moved from +500 to +650.
However, it's worth keeping an eye on the Pistons point guard as he would be the main beneficiary if SGA and Jokic miss any additional time and fail to appear in the 65 games necessary to qualify for NBA MVP consideration.
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NBA MVP prediction
| Bet | Odds | Bet Date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +175 | Oct. 28 | 1.0 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +150 | Dec. 1 | 1.0 |
| Nikola Jokic | +300 | Feb. 25 | 0.5 |
With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama as he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.
Doncic has put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.
By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower, especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.
My late February wager on Nikola Jokic is a value play as he's simply too good to ignore at plus odds. The issue with Joker is that he must play at least 65 games to qualify for the award, so any additional missed time could kill his candidacy.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | STL | BLK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SGA | 31.8 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Jokic | 28.7 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 |
It seems only fitting we have a two-horse race given Jokic's love for all things equine. Voters will have to ask themselves whether they prefer SGA's scoring and the Thunder's superior record or Jokic's overall brilliance and ability to stuff a box score.
📈 NBA odds over time
This year's MVP chase has been a heavyweight melee. Follow along all season as we update this graphic with contenders rising and falling.
💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
- Nikola Jokic +350
- Luka Doncic +380
- Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
- Victor Wembanyama +1200
- Anthony Edwards +2500
- Kevin Durant +5000
- Cade Cunningham +6000
- Jalen Brunson +8000
- Donovan Mitchell +10000
- Paolo Banchero +10000
- Trae Young +15000
NBA MVP betting data
The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.
- Highest ticket percentage: Cade Cunningham 24.6%
- Highest handle percentage: Cade Cunningham 19.3%
- Biggest liability: Cade Cunningham
- Odds leader: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander -250
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How is the NBA MVP decided?
The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?
🗳️ MVP Voting Process
The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:
- 1st place vote: 10 points
- 2nd place: 7 points
- 3rd place: 5 points
- 4th place: 3 points
- 5th place: 1 point
The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.
📊 What Do Voters Consider?
While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:
- Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
- Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
- Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
- Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter
👀 Voter Biases and Trends
Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:
- “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
- New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
- Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years
📈 NBA MVP trends
Here are some trends you may want to consider before placing a bet on the NBA MVP:
- Repeat winners are somewhat common. Jokic's 2022 win marked the 12th different player to have won the award two (or more) years in a row.
- The MVP usually comes from an elite team. Since 1985, only seven MVP winners have come from a team that didn't finish first or second in its conference.
- The award is usually given to a player with a few years of experience. A rookie hasn't won MVP since Wes Unseld in 1969, and only two MVPs have been 22 or younger (Wes Unseld and Derrick Rose).
- Centers have historically dominated the MVP award. While they went on a two-decade drought between Shaquille O'Neal (2000) and Nikola Jokic (2021), centers have now won four of the last five MVPs.
📜NBA MVP betting history
A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.
| Season | Player | Opening Odds | Team |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | +400 | Thunder |
| 2023-24 | Nikola Jokic | +450 |  Nuggets |
| 2022-23 | Joel Embiid | +600 |  76ers |
| 2021-22 | Nikola Jokic | +1600 | Nuggets |
| 2020-21 | Nikola Jokic | +2500 | Nuggets |
| 2019-20 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +210 |  Bucks |
| 2018-19 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | +475 | Bucks |
| 2017-18 | James Harden | +1100 |  Rockets |
| 2016-17 | Russell Westbrook | +200 | OThunder |
| 2015-16 | Stephen Curry | +650 |  Warriors |
| 2014-15 | Stephen Curry | +1600 | Warriors |
Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.
NBA MVP odds FAQ
The NBA intentionally leaves "valuable" open to the interpretation of voters, who typically look for a dominant player on an elite team.
NBA voters submit MVP ballots shortly after the regular season concludes, and playoff games are not considered.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder won the 2025 NBA MVP.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the all-time record with six NBA MVPs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the shortest MVP odds at -210.
The NBA MVP award is voted on by a panel of sportswriters and broadcasters from the United States and Canada. This panel consists of approximately 100 members who cover the NBA regularly throughout the season. They vote for the player they believe has been the most valuable to their team based on their performance throughout the regular season.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar holds the record for winning the most NBA MVP awards in league history. He won the MVP award six times during his legendary career with the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Lakers.
