2026 NBA MVP Odds and Favorites: Jokic and SGA Neck and Neck Again

The 2024–25 NBA season may well be remembered as the year Shai Gilgeous-Alexander fully blossomed into a true superstar. The only question now is what will his encore look like?

Oklahoma City’s do-it-all guard opened as the MVP favorite, but he’s already been overtaken by three-time winner Nikola Jokic. As was the case a year ago, bookmakers expect these two superstars to sit high above the rest of the field.

Let's take a peek at the 2026 NBA Most Valuable Player odds ahead of this brand new season.

🏀2026 NBA MVP odds

Player
Nikola Jokic	+220
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+250
Luka Doncic	+380
Giannis Antetokounmpo	+950
Victor Wembanyama	+1800

👑2026 NBA MVP favorites

Nikola Jokic (+220)

Nikola Jokic is an offense unto himself. He scores with historic efficiency, but he does it without hijacking possessions; screening, sealing, and slipping into pockets of space as if he’s the system’s conductor and its first violin. From the elbow, the short roll, or a post catch at 15 feet, he bends coverages with a glance: dribble-handoff into a backdoor cut, a one-handed sling to the weak corner, a touch-pass that arrives before the defense has even processed the threat. Few bigs have ever married volume, efficiency, and orchestration the way he does.

The seven-time All-Star just turned in a season that raised his own absurd bar: more points per game than in any of his three MVP years, more assists, and the nightly command of pace and geometry that makes teammates’ lives simple. He joined the ultra-exclusive club of players to average a triple-double for an entire season, doing it not through endless high pick-and-roll spam but through a read-and-react ecosystem built around his vision. Denver’s offense flows through his hands yet rarely feels sticky; his two-man game with Jamal Murray is a cheat code, his dribble handoffs create downhill lanes for shooters, and his offensive rebounding turns broken possessions into layups and open threes.

What makes it all so demoralizing for opponents is the variety. Send a hard double, and he turns it into a four-on-three before the trap arrives. Play him single coverage, and he’ll bury you with footwork and touch. Switch a smaller defender, he seals; switch a bigger one, he faces and initiates like a guard. It’s ruthless problem-solving in slow motion, the rare superstar who can dominate both by scoring and by choosing not to.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+250)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's offense gets most of the attention—and deservedly so—but the leap that rounded him into an apex two-way star came on the other end. In year seven he sharpened every defensive detail: he slides with guards instead of reaching, uses his length for rearview contests, and times his digs at the nail to blow up drives without surrendering corner threes. The result wasn’t just counting stats—though the 1.7 steals and career-high 1.0 blocks per game pop—it was possession after possession where his man simply didn’t get comfortable. His ball-hawking turns live dribbles into long outlets, and those live-ball turnovers are the jet fuel for Oklahoma City’s transition game and, ultimately, a defense that sat atop the league.

What makes SGA elite is how cleanly the defense complements an already unsolvable offensive package. He doesn’t win with raw speed so much as with tempo manipulation: the hang dribble, the sudden deceleration into a glide step, the shoulder fake that sends a helper the wrong way. He lives in the paint without forcing the issue, finishing through contact with craft and length, then punishing help with kickouts and late pocket passes. When teams wall off the rim, he pivots to the middle game—those balanced, on-two-feet pull-ups from 12–18 feet—and sprinkles in stepbacks just enough to keep the scouting report honest. His shot diet is ruthlessly efficient because he chooses it; he dictates terms.

Add it up and you get a superstar whose value is multiplicative. His scoring bends coverages, his passing simplifies reads for teammates, and his defense shortens opponent possessions. That blend of on-ball creation, efficient self-offense, and real point-of-attack impact is why Thunder fans aren’t just dreaming about a championship run; they’re starting to outline the parade route.

Shai Gilgeous Alexander vs Nikola Jokic head-to-head stats in 2024-25

Player	PTS	REB	AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	30.3	5.0	6.5
Nikola Jokic	24.5	15.8	11.5

The Thunder and Nuggets split their four-game set last season, but Joker was far more impactful in their head-to-head clashes, averaging a massive triple-double.

Jokic was especially dominant in Denver's 140-127 win over OKC on March 10, erupting for 35 points, 18 rebounds, eight assists, one steal, and one block.

🤖 NBA MVP AI prediction

It should come as no surprise that ChatGPT is a big fan of SGA. Here's what the chatbot had to say about the defending NBA MVP winner:

With voters increasingly sensitive to both team success and two-way impact, SGA has the cleanest path to an MVP narrative this season. He's the best player on a top-two team in the West, elite efficiency from all three levels, and offers real defensive bite at the point of attack. His game scales without drama—he can dominate in isolation or flow within movement-heavy actions, and he gets to the line a ton without forcing bad shots. If Oklahoma City’s depth keeps their net ratings gaudy when he sits, while his on/off still pops, he’ll own the “drives winning” storyline that tends to decide close MVP races.

Jokic is the rightful favorite, but he’s also up against soft voter fatigue and a Nuggets organization that has every incentive to pace him for June. Doncic will put up video-game numbers again, yet the bar for heliocentric guards keeps rising, and defensive skepticism plus any midseason usage management could ding his case.

By contrast, SGA’s steadiness, durability, and two-way credibility give him multiple avenues to “win” the discourse even if raw counting stats are a tick lower—especially if the Thunder post the league’s best record.

💰2026 NBA MVP opening odds

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +150
• Nikola Jokic +350
• Luka Doncic +380
• Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
• Victor Wembanyama +1200
• Anthony Edwards +2500
• Kevin Durant +5000
• Cade Cunningham +6000
• Jalen Brunson +8000
• Donovan Mitchell +10000
• Paolo Banchero +10000
• Trae Young +15000

NBA MVP betting data

The following data is courtesy of BetMGM.

• Highest ticket percentage: Luka Doncic 25.1%
• Highest handle percentage: Luka Doncic 40.5%
• Biggest liability: Luka Doncic

Popular NBA futures odds

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How is the NBA MVP decided?

The MVP award is one of the most prestigious honors in professional basketball—and one of the most debated. But how is the MVP actually chosen?

🗳️ MVP Voting Process

The MVP is determined by a panel of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the U.S. and Canada, as well as a fan vote that counts as one ballot. Each voter selects five players, ranked from first to fifth place. The point system is as follows:

• 1st place vote: 10 points
• 2nd place: 7 points
• 3rd place: 5 points
• 4th place: 3 points
• 5th place: 1 point

The player with the highest total point tally at the end of voting is crowned NBA MVP.

📊 What Do Voters Consider?

While there's no official checklist, MVP voters typically weigh several key factors:

• Individual statistics: Points, assists, rebounds, efficiency, advanced metrics like PER or Win Shares
• Team success: MVPs are rarely chosen from losing teams and Top 3 seeds are the norm
• Narrative and storyline: Voters often reward players overcoming adversity or carrying a franchise
• Consistency and availability: Games played, durability, and clutch performance matter

👀 Voter Biases and Trends

Some unofficial trends also influence MVP outcomes:

• “Voter fatigue”: Players who've already won may need to outperform their own past seasons to win again
• New blood bias: Voters sometimes prefer rising stars over repeat winners
• Position favoritism: Guards and forwards tend to dominate MVP voting, although that trend has been changing in recent years

📜NBA MVP betting history

A quick look at recent NBA MVPs and their opening odds.

Season	Player	Opening Odds	Team
2024-25	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	+400	Oklahoma City Thunder
2023-24	Nikola Jokic	+450	Denver Nuggets
2022-23	Joel Embiid	+600	Philadelphia 76ers
2021-22	Nikola Jokic	+1600	Denver Nuggets
2020-21	Nikola Jokic	+2500	Denver Nuggets
2019-20	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+210	Milwaukee Bucks
2018-19	Giannis Antetokounmpo	+475	Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18	James Harden	+1100	Houston Rockets
2016-17	Russell Westbrook	+200	Oklahoma City Thunder
2015-16	Stephen Curry	+650	Golden State Warriors
2014-15	Stephen Curry	+1600	Golden State Warriors

NBA MVP odds FAQ

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