UFC 251: Yan vs Aldo picks and predictions

Jun 29, 2020 |
UFC 251: Yan vs Aldo picks and predictions
Petr Yan is a rising star in the UFC but the Russian has seen his odds to win the bantamweight title against Jose Aldo at UFC 251 shorten after opening as a massive -300 favorite.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports
Petr Yan is a rising star in the UFC but the Russian has seen his odds to win the bantamweight title against Jose Aldo at UFC 251 shorten after opening as a massive -300 favorite.
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo will be one of three championship fights taking place at UFC 251 at “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, as the two fighters face off for the vacant bantamweight title. 

We break down the MMA odds for this bantamweight battle and give our best UFC picks and predictions for Yan vs. Aldo at UFC 251: Usman vs Burns on July 11.

Yan vs Aldo UFC 251 odds

Method of victory Petr Yan Jose Aldo
Win outright -220 +176
Win by KO/TKO +150 +500
Win by submission +2,200 +1,400
Win by points +230 +470
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Yan vs Aldo betting preview

Yan opened as the -300 favorite for this fight but that line has since shifted to -220. Yan is a perfect 6-0 since joining the UFC and is coming off a victory over Urijah Faber at UFC 245, knocking him out cold with a head kick in the third round after out-striking him 54-18. The 27-year-old Russian is seen as one of the UFC's rising stars and is terrific on his feet landing 5.65 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.15. 

Aldo is an absolute legend who is considered one of the greatest pound-for-pound fighters in UFC history and had an incredible seven consecutive featherweight title defenses from 2011 to 2014. That said, his only fight in the 135-pound weight division was a loss to Marlon Moraes last December which gave him four losses in his last six fights.

While those four losses came to Moraes (the No. 1 ranked contender in the bantamweight class), current featherweight champ Alexander Volkanovski and former champ Max Holloway, there are still concerns that the 33-year-old might be past his prime. Aldo is a terrific striker who kicks with tremendous power and is able to keep fights standing up thanks to his excellent takedown defense. 

 

Yan vs Aldo tale of the tape 

Petr Yan   Jose Aldo
27 Age 33
5-foot-7 Height 5-foot-7
135 lbs Weight 145 lbs
67 inches Reach 70 inches
14-1 (6 KO) Record 28-7 (17 KO)

Yan vs Aldo UFC predictions and betting picks

PREDICTION: Yan by points +230 - There are plenty of critics who think Aldo got this title shot based more on reputation than current form, and although Dana White disagrees with them (shocker!), oddsmakers seem to share that sentiment. That said, although Aldo lost to Moraes in his previous bout, it was a close fight that came down to a split decision.

Aldo certainly isn't broken at this point in his career and there is value in backing him as an underdog, especially with his experience in fighting for five rounds.

However, Yan is arguably the best boxer in the weight class with extremely polished footwork, crisp combos and power in his hands. He also has the chin to take anything that Aldo throws at him.

Look for Yan to dictate the flow of the fight early and pile up points in the first three rounds, but it won't be as easy for Yan to knock out Aldo early like he did a 40-year-old Faber. Expect this to go the distance, with Aldo holding his own towards the end of the fight, and back Yan to win by decision. 

 

More UFC 251 predictions

Petr Yan vs. Jose Aldo is just one of many exciting fights slated for the UFC 251 card. Check out our best picks and predictions for these other bouts taking place on July 11:

Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway

Jessica Andrade vs. Rose Namajunas

Amanda Ribas vs. Paige VanZant

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