UFC 301 Martinez vs Aldo Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Retirement Party

Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo serves as the co-main event for tonight’s stacked card of UFC 301 betting. 

Aldo is coming out of retirement in hopes of getting back into the thick of things at bantamweight, and he'll know how much he has left against rising star Martinez, who has won his last six in a row. This critical clash will either extend Aldo’s legendary career or serve as a major boost to Martinez’s stock.

UFC odds have Martinez as a narrow -140 favorite, with Aldo a live underdog at +115. Here are my best free UFC 301: Martinez vs. Aldo predictions from Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Martinez vs Aldo prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Martinez moneyline (-150 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Martinez by decision (+150 at BET99)

Fight analysis

After losing to Mehrab Dvalishvili almost two years ago, Aldo retired and turned his attention to boxing in Brazil. Perhaps in an attempt to boost the card or to serve as a stepping stone for their new prospect, Aldo is back to perform in front of a home crowd that will surely give him a hero’s welcome. This isn’t going to be an easy night for the aging legend, considering his time off and participation in a different combat sport.

Martinez is a solid Muay Thai striker with good BJJ skills and is capable on the ground. He hasn’t fought anyone as good as Aldo, but this ring-rusted and inactive version might not have enough to keep up with him.

We’ve seen Martinez make use of his leg kicks to control distance and score big shots, and with Aldo possibly adopting a more boxing-centric style considering his recent activity, Martinez could chip away at his mobility from the start.

Aldo has been historically easy to hit when he can’t time his opponents or effectively counter. Even when he was active and serviceable, he was either taking a strike to land one, or being drastically out-landed.   

Martinez is working his way into a well-rounded fighter, and he’s scored two knockouts with his vicious kicks in his last six wins. There is a chance that Aldo could have something left to surprise Martinez. After all, Aldo losing to Dvalishvili ended up not being as big of a loss as once thought, and he was on a decent run that saw the veteran have enough left to beat the likes of Rob Font and Marlon Vera.

The line is close, and Aldo is certainly benefitting from being the sentimental favorite, but the layoff and age are enough to firmly back Martinez, sending him into retirement once more.

Best best analysis

Martinez and Aldo's average fight time exceeds 13 minutes, so more often than not, these two tend to go the distance. However, Aldo coming back this long against a younger foe who can set a fast pace isn’t a good look for the veteran.

Aldo might be able to slow things down if he smartly picks his shots or if Martinez makes the tactical mistake of testing his historically great takedown defense. That said, Martinez can rely on his leg kicks, and pressuring Aldo to get him to expand his gas tank and see how nimble he is at 37, which we can already imagine isn’t going to be much.

Martinez will land the bigger shots, outwork Aldo up top, and should be in command of the fight to the point where he won’t make any tactical errors that could allow Aldo to snatch a victory at his expense. My best bet is that Martinez wins by decision.

Martinez vs Aldo odds

Method of Victory	Martinez	Aldo
To win outright	-140	+115
To win by KO/TKO	+370	+525
To win by points	+165	+230
To win by submission	+1,350	+1,350
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-4-2024.

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Martinez vs Aldo tale of the tape

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