Starting the season 0-2 used to mean an NFL team’s playoff hopes had about the same chances of Bill Belichick signing an endorsement deal with Gucci.
In the standard 12-team format, just 22 percent of teams that opened 0-2 went on to make the postseason. But now, in the COVID-warped 2020 campaign, 14 teams qualify for the tournament and 0-2 is no longer a death sentence.
Let’s hope those extra playoff spots won’t blow up two red-hot NFL betting trends involving 0-2 teams (SU and ATS) – especially since one of my favorite NFL Week 3 point spread picks falls into both of those profitable strategies.
Over the past four years, NFL teams starting the season 0-2 straight up (SU) are 21-6 against the spread (ATS) when set as an underdog in their third game – that’s a 78 percent winning clip for this short-term trend. Looking at a larger sample size, those same 0-2 underdogs are 48-33-3 ATS since 2006 with that situation turning out a 27-27-3 ATS mark between 2006 and 2015, so this trend is a recent development.
But it’s not just 0-2 teams in the win/loss column that present value as pups in their third contests of the year. More important to sports bettors are those teams that are 0-2 ATS to begin the slate. Those early money pits are actually 21-5 ATS as underdogs in their third game of the season since 2016 – an 81-percent rainmaker the past four years.
The long-term data shows a 47-29-1 ATS record since 2006 for those 0-2 ATS teams as pups in Game 3 (26-23-1 ATS from 2006 to 2015) and, based on a past discovery I did ahead of Week 3 of the 2016 season, a 96-60-4 ATS mark (61.5%) since 1985.
There are four NFL teams that fall into both trends in Week 3 (Houston Texans, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions) and, as mentioned above, one of them is among my favorite picks for this week’s NFL Underdogs.
Houston Texans (+4) vs Pittsburgh Steelers pick
If you’re not sold on those 0-2 trends above, let me sweeten the pot on the Texans.
Houston has without a doubt the toughest opening schedule of any NFL team, with this trip to Heinz Field as the softest section of that slate. The Texans had to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in Week 1 and hosted the current Super Bowl favorites, the Baltimore Ravens, last Sunday.
The Texans didn’t look great in either game, specifically on offense, and enter Week 3 ranked 19th in offensive DVOA at Football Outsiders. Treat those early-season results lightly, given there was no preseason schedule to iron out the wrinkles for a Houston playbook replacing one of the best receivers in the game.
Pittsburgh carries a lot of weight at home and is giving four points in Week 3. But the Steelers have been far from stellar in their opening contests and aren’t on the same level as the Texans’ past two opponents.
Pittsburgh played one solid half of football against the New York Giants in Week 1, covering the 6-point spread with a 26-16 win, and came up short against an undermanned Denver Broncos side last Sunday, winning 26-21 as failed faves of -6.
Houston has more firepower than the Broncos and Giants (Deshaun Watson > Daniel Jones and Jeff Driskel) and will finally find its footing on offense in the third game of the year, especially if it's not playing catchup against the top offensive powers in football.
PREDICTION: Houston +4 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs New York Giants (+4.5) pick
The turf at MetLife Stadium has caught more flack than me when I get the bath mat wet on my way out of the shower (married guys know what I’m talking about. IT’S A BATH MAT!).
In last week’s road game against the Jets, San Francisco had multiple players go down with major injuries on both sides of the ball and immediately focused its rage to the FieldTurf in East Rutherford, where the Niners just so happen to play again this Sunday.
San Francisco’s injury report looks like movie credits for a four-hour-long World War II epic, with just as much guts and gore. From starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo to all-world DL Nick Bosa, the 49ers are in shambles and their motivations for Sunday should be questioned.
Granted, the Giants have injury issues of their own with star RB Saquon Barkley going down, but at least the bulk of their team is intact. I’m a little baffled at this point spread, especially when looking beyond the 49ers' injuries and to what they’ve done so far in 2020 (1-1 SU and ATS).
I’m taking Danny Dimes and an undervalued Giants defense at home over the Niners’ practice squad.
PREDICTION: New York +4.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers (+3) vs New Orleans Saints pick
I was kicking myself (and still am) for not selecting Green Bay as one of my Week 1 NFL Underdogs picks, but I get a second chance with the Cheeseheads collecting three points in New Orleans Sunday night.
The Saints are a much more impressive team than Minnesota or Detroit (the Packers' two opponents so far), but New Orleans is playing on a short week and showed some glaring weaknesses in Monday’s loss at Las Vegas.
New Orleans’ defense buckled under the Raiders’ two-way attack, giving up 34 points after a first-quarter shutout with the Silver and Black totaling 116 yards rushing and 259 yards passing. And while much was made of the Saints shutting down Tom Brady in Week 1, their own aging arm may be crossing his expiry date.
Drew Brees enters Week 3 with a completion percentage just under 65 percent and a QB rating of 69.4, on par with Miami passer Ryan Fitzpatrick. He had only one touchdown along with one interception on Monday and his deep-ball danger isn’t there, with just 4.82 air yards in an offense that misses WR Michael Thomas (Questionable).
Passing, however, isn’t a problem for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. In fact, there’s very little giving the Pack problems at this point. Green Bay is the top offense in the NFL with the ground and air games clicking. Rodgers is tied for the league lead in passing plays over 20 yards and RB Aaron Jones is keeping defenses honest with a league-leading 234 rushing yards.
I’m not missing out on Green Bay getting the points again, not when the team looks this good.
PREDICTION: Green Bay +3 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS
Season 2-4 ATS
NFL Underdogs Week 3 betting card
- Houston +4 (-110)
- New York +4.5 (-110)
- Green Bay +3 (-110)
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