With the season here the College Football National Championship odds should finally see movement after being relatively unchanged over the last few months as the biggest powers in the sport have owned the top of the college football odds board.
Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Oregon, and Georgia are the most popular college football picks as the only programs with a 10% or better probability at the best prediction market apps to take home the title, while reigning national champion, Indiana, trails at 9%.
- Key takeaways
- Notre Dame: Although the Fighting Irish are No. 4 in the preseason AP Top 25, they've been atop the CFP National Championship odds since they opened with Marcus Freeman's team having a clear path to the College Football Playoff due to its schedule.
- Ohio State: The No. 1 team in the preseason AP Top 25, the Buckeyes opened as the biggest favorite to win the title then they temporarily slipping down the board before climbing back up to be the co-favorite ahead of the season.
- Texas: With the buzz around Arch Manning as a Heisman contender, the Longhorns have climbed the oddsboard, despite receiving zero first place votes in the preseason AP Top 25.
CFP National Championship odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Team |  Probabillity |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame |
13% |
 Ohio State |
13% |
 Texas |
12% |
 Oregon |
11% |
 Georgia |
10% |
 Indiana |
9% |
 Miami |
8% |
 LSU |
6% |
 Alabama |
4% |
 Texas Tech |
4% |
 Texas A&M |
4% |
 Oklahoma |
3% |
 Ole Miss |
3% |
 Michigan |
3% |
 Florida |
2% |
 Tennessee |
2% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of our best prediction market apps.
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Notre Dame (13%)
Although now a co-favorite with Ohio State, Notre Dame has been atop the College Football National Championship odds for months. The Fighting Irish's place at No. 1 on the board is well deserved with Marcus Freeman's team leading the nation in returning production (72%) and having the Heisman Trophy odds favorite, CJ Carr, behind center.
Notre Dame also has a major advantage on its path to the College Football Playoff since its an independent with a weaker schedule than the rest of the Power 4. Also working in Notre Dame's advantage is the rule change that guarantees the Irish an automatic playoff spot if they finish ranked in the Top 12 of the CFP committee's final rankings.
Heading into the season, Notre Dame's price is more than reasonable, and I'd consider buying them at it. The only four teams I'd consider taking to win it all at this point are Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia.
CFP National Championship predictions
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon |
10% | May 27 | 0.5 |
Dan Lanning's Oregon Ducks are going to break through. It's only a matter of time.
Dante Moore passed up the NFL Draft to return for his senior season, and he'll have Evan Stewart (missed all of last season with a knee injury) and 2025 No. 1 wide receiver recruit Dakorien Moore to throw to.
Trips to USC and Ohio State are the only scary matchups on the schedule, and they'll have chances to boost their resume with home games against Michigan and Washington in the final three weeks of the season.
I project this as an 11-1 season, with that lone loss coming at Ohio State on November 7, but that record and a potential Big Ten title game appearance could be enough for a first-round bye in the CFP.
Pick made by Chris Gregory.
| Prediction | Odds | Pick date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks |
11% | Aug. 26 | 1 |
After predicting every single FBS game ahead of the college football season, Oregon was one of just a handful of Power 4 teams I projected to have a chance at 11+ regular season wins. That's because they're 11th nationally in returning production (66%) with one of the top QBs in the country.
Dante Moore, who's the best Heisman value on the board among high-profile QBs, was one of only three P4 QBs to put up an adjusted completion percentage of at least 80% (Min. 300 dropbacks), and the only one of those three to have a big-time throw rate better than 6%. He also has one of the deepest pass catching rooms in the country (Jamari Johnson, Evan Stewart, Dakorien Moore, Jeremiah McClellan, Iverson Hooks).
Dan Lanning's defense is loaded again, too. The Ducks return their entire starting defensive line, led by preseason All-American A'Mauri Washington.
Oregon should be priced the same as Notre Dame and Ohio State, and so I'll happily buy them at a slight discount.
Pick made by Rob Paul.
Team to watch
Texas Tech (4%)
Among the teams with a probability below 8%, Texas Tech is by far the most interesting. The Red Raiders are the most talented team in the Big 12 and billionaire booster Cody Campbell once again helped fund a top transfer portal class.
While the Brendan Sorsby saga hung over Texas Tech for months, they don't need him to make a run to the College Football Playoff. Will Hammond showed plenty of promise off the bench last year, and he's reportedly healthy after last year's torn ACL. Joey Maguire is set to add former Florida State QB Thomas Castellanos as insurance behind Hammond, too.
But the reason Tech is the team to watch is because of its defense. It reloaded in the front seven with major portal additions like Mateen Ibirogba, Adam Trick, and Austin Romaine. It also returns stars Ben Roberts and Brice Pollock.
With a schedule that should lead to a 11+ win regular season, I think Tech's price will be rise rapidly.
Recent College Football National Championship winners
| Year | Winner | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana |
+10000 |
| 2024 | Ohio State |
+325 |
| 2023 | Michigan |
+800 |
| 2022 | Georgia |
+350 |
| 2021 | Georgia |
+600 |
| 2020 | Alabama |
+300 |
| 2019 | LSU |
+2500 |
| 2018 |  Clemson |
+400 |
| 2017 | Alabama |
+250 |
| 2016 | Clemson |
+700 |
| 2015 | Alabama |
+700 |
College Football National Championship odds via Sports Odds History.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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College Football National Championship Odds FAQs
Notre Dame and Ohio State are co-favorites, according to the College Football National Championship odds. Both the Fighting Irish and Buckeyes have a 13% probability of winning the CFP National Championship.
The College Football National Championship is on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The College Football National Championship is at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. It will be played on Monday, Jan. 25, 2027.
Indiana won its first College Football National Championship last year. The Hoosiers defeated Miami, 27-21, to complete a 16-0 season.
The College Football National Championship will be on ABC/ESPN on Monday, Jan. 27, 2027. The other College Football Playoff games leading up to it will be on ABC/ESPN and TNT.
