Stampeders vs Roughriders Week 20 Picks and Predictions: Stamp of Approval

The Roughriders have to "ride or die" so to speak, but their QB situation is in disarray and they match up poorly with their Week 20 opponent — the Stampeders. See why the ride should, indeed, be rough with our CFL picks.

Last Updated: Oct 21, 2022 3:49 PM ET Read Time: 4 min

Week 20 in the CFL wraps up on Saturday night with a clash between the Calgary Stampeders and Saskatchewan Roughriders.

It's crunch time for the Riders, who need to win at least one more game if they want to make the playoffs by earning a cross-over berth. Despite the importance of this contest, the Riders have opted to bench veteran quarterback Cody Fajardo in favor of sophomore Mason Fine. With that move, CFL odds for this contest shifted from the Stamps at -0.5 to -3.

Here are my best free Stampeders vs. Roughriders CFL picks and predictions for October 22.

Stampeders vs Roughriders best odds

Stampeders vs Roughriders picks and predictions

The dropoff from Fajardo to Fine might not actually be worth 2.5 points to the line, but that might not matter. Head coach Craig Dickenson opting to start Fine over Fajardo might have more to do with desperation after losing five games in a row than confidence in the inexperienced QB.

Fine hasn't looked any better than Fajardo when taking over for him in three blowout losses, and he'll be behind an offensive line that has allowed a league-worst 66 sacks. That's bad news against a Stampeders stop unit that leads the CFL with 46 sacks and brings plenty of pressure off the edge. 

It might be wise to see what happens to this line if the Lions win on Friday and clinch home-field advantage in the West Division semifinal, since it would mean that the Stamps have little to play for. However, even if the Stamps choose to rest and rotate key starters, they have the depth to cover this spread. 

After all, they have the league's best backup QB in two-time MOP winner Bo Levi Mitchell, along with a pair of backup running backs in Peyton Logan and Dedrick Mills that other teams would likely start. 

Despite the hostile environment at Mosaic Field, the Riders have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games while the Stampeders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Regina. I'm fading a Saskatchewan team that doesn't even seem to believe in itself right now. 

My best bet: Stampeders -3 (-110 at FanDuel)

Stampeders vs Roughriders spread analysis

With just two games left in the season, Saskatchewan is 6-10 and needs to win at least one game — and might need to win two if the Ti-Cats win on Friday. 

After losing 18-14 to the Ti-Cats last week for their fifth loss in a row, the Riders had to do something to provide a spark for a struggling offense that is last in the league in yards per play (5.7) and second down conversion rate (40.2%).

While that can't all be blamed on Fajardo (especially with terrible pass blocking and injuries at receiver), it was clear he wasn't going to be the solution with his inability to attack downfield. 

The 25-year-old Fine has only 51 pass attempts as a pro and this will be his first start after relieving Fajardo in three blowout losses. He completed 16 of 26 passes for 210 yards with a touchdown and an interception versus BC in Week 11 and went  7-9 for 83 yards in the fourth quarter against Montreal in Week 3. His most recent appearance came two weeks ago against the Bombers when he completed his first four passes before getting picked off.

The Stampeders are 10-6 and could still earn that all-important home-field advantage in the playoffs if they win out and the Lions drop back-to-back contests against the Elks. They are coming off a 35-32 loss to Hamilton where the Ti-Cats marched down the field with less than a minute on the clock to score the game-winning touchdown. Interestingly enough all six of their losses this season have been razor-thin defeats decided in the final minute of play. 

Despite the hostile environment at Mosaic Field, the Riders have gone just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games while the Stampeders are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Regina. I'm fading a Saskatchewan team that doesn't even seem to believe in itself right now. 

Stampeders vs Roughriders Over/Under analysis

While Saskatchewan's passing attack won't be able to move the ball, the ground game should get a boost with the expected return of Jamal Morrow after being forced to start fourth-string RB Shaq Cooper last week. Morrow was leading the league in rushing before breaking his hand in Week 11 and he could pose problems for a Stampeders run defense that has been gashed for 5.1 yards per carry. 

Although the Riders' defense has been strong for much of the yea,r it has regressed over the last couple of months with the absence of Anthony Lanier II. The defensive tackle was leading the league in quarterback pressures but has been sidelined by a concussion and that, combined with the release of Garrett Marino, has turned their defensive line from elite to merely pretty good.

Lanier is listed as questionable for tomorrow and Saskatchewan could really use him against a Calgary offensive line that has allowed a league-low 15 sacks. Saskatchewan's defense leads the CFL in two-and-outs forced but also allows the most average yards on first down (7.0), while the Stamps lead the league with 7.6 yards per first down

Calgary also leads the league with 30.9 points per game thanks to a balanced and explosive offense. That said, it's worth mentioning that they're banged up at receiver with three of their four top pass-catchers (Malik Henry, Kamar Jordan, and Luther Hakunavanhu) expected to be sidelined with injuries. 

Stampeders vs Roughriders trend to know

The Stampeders are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. Find more CFL betting trends for Stampeders vs. Roughriders.

Stampeders vs Roughriders game info

Location: Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK
Date: Saturday, October 22, 2022
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET

Stampeders vs Roughriders key injuries

Stampeders: Luther Hakunavanhu WR (Doubtful), Malik Henry WR (Doubtful), Peyton Logan RB (Questionable), Titus Wall S (Doubtful), Derek Dennis LT (Out), Kamar Jordan WR (Out), Tre Roberson CB (Out).

Roughriders: Jamal Morrow RB (Probable), Anthony Lanier II DT (Questionable), Charleston Hughes DE (Questionable), Kienan Lafrance RB (Out), Godfrey Onyeka DB (Out), Justin McInnis WR (Out), Duke Williams WR (Out), Frankie Hickson RB (Out), Micah Teitz LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.

Stampeders vs Roughriders weather


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