The BC Lions come into Edmonton fresh off a bye week as +3 point underdogs to face the Elks on Friday at 9 pm ET.
The Elks are the surprising leaders of the CFL West Division at the one quarter mark of the season and hope to keep the BC Lions and their struggling defence at the bottom of the pile.
My early leans and CFL Picks in the BC vs Edmonton predictions expect the Elks to grind out a win and even up the season series.
Lions vs Elks predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Lions vs Elks spread pick: Elks -3
The West Division-leading 4-1 Edmonton Elks should make the most of their shot at revenge against the BC Lions, who handed them their only loss of the season in Week 5 on the natural grass field in Kelowna, BC.
The Elks couldn’t seem to get any footing that night with their league-leading rushing attack featuring early MOP favorite RB Justin Rankin.
Rankin has averaged an astounding 7.66 YPC thus far, with four of his five games going over 100 rushing yards — the only one below was his 19-yard output versus this same Lions defence.
The Elks project for 5.4 YPC this week in my model versus the league's top rush defence that has allowed a paltry 4.3 YPC to opposing offences in 2026.
Reigning MOP QB Nathan Rourke and the Lions offence have averaged 30.75 points per game this season and put up 36 on Edmonton just two weeks ago, so Edmonton’s best defence is likely just to keep them off the field as much as possible by leaning on their biggest strengths in the running game to chew up clock and maintain possession.
BC is coming off a bye here, but Edmonton managed to rest many of their stars down the stretch in their blowout over Ottawa in Week 6, and facing the Redblacks these days serves almost like a mini bye itself.
I’d like this line even more at Edmonton -2.5 and wouldn’t go past the current line at -3, but with an 8-2 record ATS in their last ten games and a return to their home field and artificial turf, I like Edmonton to cover the spread here over BC.
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Early Lions vs Elks total pick: Under 60.5
This posted total feels kind of like DraftKings looked at the Week 5 final score of 60 between the BC Lions and Edmonton Elks, added the season average scores of the two teams together (30.75+29.6=60.35), took into account the public sentiment of “CFL 2026 is Overs season” and posted the line at 60.5 points.
Despite the increased plays per game in the CFL in 2026 due to changes in the play-clock rules, Edmonton has actually gone Under in four of its five games this season, with the only Over being a chaotic mess in a monsoon that ended in a 32-29 OT win over Montreal.
The Lions, on the other hand, have their only Under of the season in their Week 5 matchup with this same Edmonton squad, as the Lions defence has struggled to stop anyone in allowing 34.25 points per game thus far.
These offences project as the two highest rushing yards per carry teams in my model this week (BC 5.42, Edmonton 5.44, league average 5.04), and that gives me reason to believe this game may lean more run heavy and keep the pace and scoring in check.
I’ll go against the grain of the season averages and take the Under at 60.5, but I wouldn’t go even a half point past that.
This is my line in the sand.
The five-day forecast for Edmonton shows a strong chance of thunderstorms near the end of the week, and sloppy conditions would only further enhance my lean towards the Under.
Lions vs Elks odds
- Lions vs Elks spread: Elks -3
- Lions vs Elks moneyline: Lions +140, Elks -166
- Lione vs Elks Over/Under: 60.5
How to watch Lions vs Elks
- Lions vs. Elks matchup
- Date: Friday, July 17, 2026, 9 p.m. ET
- City: Edmonton, AB
- Venue: Commonwealth Stadium
- TV: TSN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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