Week 13 in the CFL kicks off on Saturday night with the Montreal Alouettes hosting the BC Lions. Both teams are on pace to make the playoffs, but both sides will look to bounce back from ugly defeats last week.
One of these teams will get back on track on Labour Day weekend, but is there another betting angle to consider for this matchup? I let you know with my best free CFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Alouettes on September 2.
Lions vs Alouettes best odds
Lions vs Alouettes picks and predictions
These squads need to get back on track after lopsided losses, with the BC Lions coming off a 30-13 defeat to the Tiger-Cats and the Montreal Alouettes getting crushed 47-17 by the Bombers. The Als were dominated on both sides of the ball in that contest and it snapped a streak of five consecutive games where they scored at least 25 points.
That flat performance on offense was a bit surprising when you consider that starting quarterback Cody Fajardo was returning to the team after a two-game absence. For the most part, Fajardo has played well in his first season with Montreal, throwing for more than 250 yards in six of eight starts while ranking fourth in the CFL in yards per pass attempt (8.9).
While Fajardo has been sacked plenty of times, Montreal's offensive line is actually the highest graded in the league per Pro Football Focus, and the ground game is able to churn out yards with running back William Stanback. The Als offense is poised for a bounce-back game against a BC defense that began the season red-hot but has been shredded in recent weeks.
Despite holding Winnipeg's high-powered offense to just six points in Week 3, the Leos surrendered 50 points and 447 passing yards to the Bombers in their Week 9 rematch. After a strong showing against the Stamps in Week 10, they allowed 30 points in back-to-back games against the Roughriders and Ticats — two sputtering attacks that are being led by third-string QBs.
Although the Lions D has been gashed over the last month, the offense continues to move the ball well. Despite scoring just 13 points against Hamilton last week, Lions quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. threw for 326 yards. In the previous week's loss to the Riders, "Big Play VA" finished with a season-high 455 passing yards and three touchdowns.
This is an explosive BC aerial attack that leads the league with 307.9 passing yards per game and when these teams met up earlier this season, the Lions scored 35 points with Adams completing 80% of his passes for 283 yards. Montreal's pass defense has put up solid numbers this season, but those stats are a bit misleading considering the Als have benefitted from several matchups against teams with disastrous situations at QB.
When Montreal has faced potent offenses, it's been outclassed, with the only exception coming against the Bombers in Week 4 when messy weather suppressed scoring on both sides. Expect these offenses to bounce back from poor performances and take the Over 46.5 for Saturday's contest.
My best bet: Over 46.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Lions vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Over 47.5 (-105)
William Stanback Over 46.5 rushing yards (-114)
Lucky Whitehead Under 47.5 receiving yards (-114)
Stanback started the season off slow, but the two-time CFL All-Star looked like his vintage self in Weeks 8 and 9 when he totaled 192 yards on 34 carries. After missing Week 10 with an injury, Stanback was limited to 31 yards against a Redblacks team that boasts the best run defense in the CFL.
Last week, Stanback mustered just 32 rushing yards but game script meant he was phased out of the offense. With this spread being set at 3.5, this will likely be a closer contest and Stanback now faces a BC defense that has been subpar against the run — last giving up 132 yards on the ground to Hamilton in Week 12.
Meanwhile, Lucky Whitehead was one of the league's best receivers in 2021 but has since taken a backseat in a BC offense that has an abundance of talented receivers on the roster. Whitehead had just two catches for 27 yards last week and has been held below 40 receiving yards in five of his last seven games.
That said, hold off on playing this SGP until we know the status of BC wideouts Keon Hatcher and Alexander Hollins. They are both currently listed as questionable for this weekend, so if neither suits up, we could see Whitehead becoming a bigger focal point in the offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Lions vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions at -3.5 but has ticked up to -4 at most books, while the total started at 45.5 and has since moved up to 47.5.
Will the real Lions please stand up? After looking like the best team in the league following a Week 4 beatdown of the Bombers in Winnipeg, the Leos have been inconsistent. They've gone just 1-3 straight up and against the spread in their last four games.
Montreal had a four-game winning streak snapped in last week's 30-point loss to the Bombers. That said, at least the Bombers are one of the league's top teams, and you need to factor in that the Als were playing on the road on just four days of rest.
Lions vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, September 2, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Lions vs Alouettes key injuries
Lions: Alexander Hollins WR (Questionable), Keon Hatcher WR (Questionable), Jalon-Edwards Cooper DB (Out), Dominique Rhymes WR (Out).
Alouettes: Wes Sutton DB (Out), Tyrell Richards LB (Out), Kaion Julien-Grant WR (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Avery Williams LB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
