Week 13 in the CFL wraps up on Monday with a Labour Day showdown between the Edmonton Elks and Calgary Stampeders. While both teams have struggled this season, the Elks are coming off back-to-back victories and there is new-found optimism with young quarterback Tre Ford running the show.
Despite that recent success, the Elks are expected to come up short once again in the Battle of Alberta with CFL betting odds opening with the Stamps as 5.5-point home favorites. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Elks vs. Stampeders on September 2.
Elks vs Stampeders best odds
Elks vs Stampeders picks and predictions
The Edmonton Elks offense has surged under dynamic new QB Tre Ford. Through their first six games of the season, they ranked dead-last in the league with just 13.1 points per game. In the three games since with Ford as their starter, they have scored at least 24 points in each contest.
The 2021 Hec Crighton winner might be the fastest QB in CFL history and has rushed for 184 yards on just 20 carries for 9.8 yards per attempt. He also has a good arm, which he displayed last week when he completed 15-of-18 passes for 317 yards against the Redblacks. It also helps that wide receiver Geno Lewis is back in the lineup after missing two months with a knee injury. Just last week, the star wideout hauled in three catches for 112 yards against Ottawa.
The Elks offensive line also seems to be making strides. They were the lowest-graded unit in the CFL according to Pro Football Focus through Week 9, but have since moved up to No. 7 in the rankings after grading above 70.0 in pass protection over the last three games. However, while Edmonton's offense has improved massively, its defense remains terrible and ranks second-last in the league with 6.92 yards allowed per play.
Meanwhile, the Calgary Stampeders offense has struggled this season, which is a bit surprising when you consider that quarterback Jake Maier impressed as a spot starter over the last two years. That said, Maier is coming off his best performance of the season after throwing for 387 yards and four scores against the Grey Cup odds favorite Argonauts. We've also seen Maier shred a poor defensive team in the Redblacks twice, and the Elks are nearly as bad against the pass.
The Elks have been even worse against the run, surrendering 141.1 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. Expect them to get gashed by a Calgary ground game that is anchored by Dedrick Mills and last year's league-leading rusher Ka'Deem Carey, who is finally healthy after dealing with various injuries.
This is the first time this season that these rivals have faced off, but the Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings and should hit again on Monday.
My best bet: Over 46 (-110 at SIA)
Elks vs Stampeders same-game parlay
Over 46.5
Jake Maier Over 235.5 passing yards (-114)
Kevin Brown Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114)
Since I'm expecting a high-scoring clash, let's look into parlaying the total with a few player props as well.
Maier has struggled with his accuracy this season, but this is a low number and he's more than capable of shredding poor pass defenses. The Elks are certainly poor in that area, surrendering 9.4 yards per pass attempt and ranking last in the league in opponent pass efficiency rating (102.3).
Brown is one of the most talented runners in the league and he put up some terrific performances last year after Edmonton added him mid-season. Game script meant that Brown was often underused at the start of this year, but he has found himself getting more touches now that Edmonton isn't getting blown out.
Brown has rushed for at least 68 yards in all three of Ford's starts and is averaging 85 yards per game over that span. Expect Brown to eclipse this number against a Calgary defense that is currently surrendering 107.7 ypg on the ground.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Elks vs Stampeders spread and Over/Under analysis
The total opened at 45.5 and has ticked up to 46.5 at most books by Saturday. With the Elks coming off their first wins of the year, money has come in on them in this matchup and the spread has slimmed from Calgary -5.5 to -4.5.
After beginning the year 0-7 straight up and 2-5 against the spread, the Elks seem to be turning their season around. They almost upset the Bombers in Week 10 but still managed to cover the spread and have since beaten and covered against the Ticats and Redblacks.
After more than a decade of being a Grey Cup contender, the Stamps have struggled this year. They were just 2-5 SU and ATS in their first seven games of the year. While Calgary has won just one of five games since, it has covered three of those contests, which proves that oddsmakers have realized just how mediocre this squad is.
Elks vs Stampeders game info
| Location: | McMahon Stadium, Calgary, AB |
| Date: | Monday, September 4, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Stampeders key injuries
Elks: J-Min Pelley DT (Questionable), Louchiez Purefoy DB (Questionable), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Daniel Ross DT (Out).
Stampeders: Mike Moore DT (Questionable), Malik Henry WR (Out), Jalen Philpot WR (Out), James Vaughters DE, Hugh Thornton OT (Out), Bryce Bell OT (Out), Peyton Logan RB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
