The most polarizing fight of 2025 is undoubtedly Jake Paul's major step up in competition to challenge former heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua.
To the surprise of no one, Joshua is a massive -1200 favorite with Paul coming back at +700.
Here are my Paul vs. Joshua predictions and free betting picks for Friday, December 19.
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Paul vs Joshua prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Anthony Joshua moneyline (-1200 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-140 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Jake Paul’s boxing career has been easy to criticize, largely because of the way he presents himself.
Despite a revolving door of opponents who’ve been undersized, overaged, and inexperienced, he carries himself with the bravado typically reserved for generational stars like a young Muhammad Ali or Conor McGregor at the height of his UFC dominance.
After each win, Paul has been met with the same familiar criticism: Fight a real boxer. And no, a 58-year-old Mike Tyson doesn’t fall into that category.
Now, however, Paul is making a genuinely shocking leap in competition. Anthony Joshua isn’t a novelty opponent or a faded name — he’s a former heavyweight champion, a proven elite boxer, and someone who is both bigger and clearly more skilled than Paul in every meaningful area.
Jake Paul’s entire career has been built around controlling the narrative and setting up fights where he has clear advantages and a realistic path to winning. This matchup clearly breaks that formula.
While I don’t think he actually beats Anthony Joshua, I do think this fight is set up for Paul to “win” in another way — by showing he can hang around with an elite heavyweight for a few rounds, or potentially even go the full eight-round distance.
No, I don’t think this fight is fixed. But similar to the Mike Tyson fight, it wouldn’t surprise me if there’s an unspoken gentleman’s agreement for Joshua to carry Paul early — much like Floyd Mayweather did with Conor McGregor — where he barely pressed the action in the opening rounds.
According to Eddie Hearn, Joshua is receiving a near career-high payday for this fight, and I highly doubt Jake Paul is signing up for a pure suicide mission where he gets flatlined in the first round.
That’s one theory for how this fight could play out, but there’s another factor here: Joshua might simply play it safe. He’s the one with everything to lose. He’s coming off a knockout loss, and he’s got a massive fight with Tyson Fury looming in 2026.
Maybe he doesn’t push the pace early. Maybe he keeps his distance and uses his six-inch reach advantage. Remember, Jake Paul has never been knocked out.
So, when you zoom out, how many times have boxing fans felt scammed by this sport? Too many to count. Don’t be shocked if this ends up looking more like a glorified sparring session than a truly competitive, full-effort fight.
Best best analysis
This fight feels set up for Paul to “win” in perception by simply lasting several rounds, or potentially longer against an elite heavyweight.
With a near career-high payday and far more at stake, Joshua has little incentive to rush the finish, especially coming off a knockout loss and with bigger fights on the horizon.
If he plays it safe early, controls distance with his reach, and avoids unnecessary risk, don’t be surprised to see this fight go into the deeper rounds.
A longshot bet you can consider is Joshua to win by decision, which is currently +450 at DraftKings.
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Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua odds
| Method of victory | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +700 | -1200 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +1400 | -380 |
| Win by points or decision | +1400 | +425 |
| Draw | +2200 | +2200 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 19.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua tale of the tape
| Paul | Joshua | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 36 |
| 6-foot-1 | Height | 6-foot-6 |
| Heavyweight | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 76 inches | Reach | 82 inches |
| 12-1 | Record | 28-4 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 25 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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