Jesse "Bam" Rodriguez continues his climb up boxing's pound-for-pound rankings when he challenges Antonio Vargas for the WBA bantamweight championship at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale.
Rodriguez enters as a significant -2,500 favorite, while champion Vargas comes in as a +1,100 underdog. My Antonio Vargas vs. Jesse Rodriguez predictions expect the favorite to win in the later rounds on June 13.
Vargas vs Rodriguez prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Rodriguez ML (-2400 at FanDuel)
- My best bet: Rodriguez to win in rounds 7-12 (+190 at FanDuel)
Fight analysis
Antonio Vargas is a solid fighter and a legitimate champion, and in most cases, he'd be a favorite in any fight at bantamweight.
However, he's facing a generational talent in Rodriguez that has been conclusively beating legends and doesn't show any signs of slowing down as he ascends to another weight class and the pound-for-pound ladder.
Rodriguez dominated and stopped undefeated Fernando Martinez in 10 rounds in his last fight, whereas Vargas fought Daigo Higa to a draw last July.
Vargas was taken to the limit by the hard-hitting Higa, was outclassed and dropped early, then fought back gallantly and scored a critical knockdown in the 12th to secure his title.
What stands out about Vargas is he is scrappy and resilient, as the Higa fight is the second time he's suffered a knockdown in a fight and avoided defeat. The difference here is Rodriguez is more refined than Higa, who was hitting Vargas with everything but the kitchen sink.
This may be Rodriguez's third weight class, but the 26-year-old is in the thick of his physical prime and has compiled a low-key hall of fame resume thus far.
He looked excellent in his last fight at junior bantamweight and should figure to look just as energetic and explosive as he comes up in weight.
What "Bam" does well is apply physical and mental pressure, breaking opponents down physically and avoiding tactical errors that would rely on his power punching.
If toughness is all Vargas has going for him, then he'll be in a position where he's fighting for survival by the halfway point of the fight. Vargas can get dropped and pop back up, but his desperation tends to win out because his opponents tend to exhaust themselves trying to pursue a stoppage.
Rodriguez is smarter than that, has a better punch selection, and has faced better opponents than Vargas many times over at this point.
Best best analysis
Rodriguez is one of the best fighters in the sport, and he's up against an opponent who lacks the chin or ring IQ to compensate for his defensive deficiencies.
As Vargas tends to get better as fights go along, every early round will get banked by Rodriguez, who may likely score knockdowns while doing the right kind of damage to sap Vargas' resolve in the later rounds.
I don't see how Vargas can go from barely escaping against Higa to going the distance with Rodriguez. My best bet is Rodriguez scores a knockout on the back-end of the fight, during rounds 7-12.
COVERS INTEL: Rodriguez has stopped his last five opponents across two weight classes, averaging just 7.8 rounds per fight during that streak. 
Antonio Vargas vs Jesse Rodriguez odds
| Method of victory | Antonio Vargas | Jesse Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | +1240 | -2400 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +1600 | -550 |
| Win by points or decision | +2700 | +430 |
| Draw | +3500 | +3500 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of June 11.
Antonio Vargas vs Jesse Rodriguez tale of the tape
| Vargas | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Age | 26 |
| 5-foot-5 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 67 inches |
| 19-1-1 | Record | 23-0 |
| 11 | Wins by KO | 16 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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