Undisputed super featherweight champion Alycia Baumgardner takes on Leila Beaudoin in the main attraction of the Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua undercard.
Baumgardner is a -1,400 favorite while Beaudoin is a +750 underdog, and my Baumgardner vs. Beaudoin predictions side with the heavy favorite. Find out why in my betting picks below.
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Baumgardner vs Beaudoin prediction and pick
- My fight prediction: Baumgardner moneyline (-1400 at DraftKings)
- My best bet: Baumgardner by decision (-200 at DraftKings)
Fight analysis
Alycia Baumgardner is one of the best fighters in women's boxing, and the undisputed super-featherweight has all the tools she'll need to remain at the top for years to come.
She's one of the few fighters with legitimate stopping power, and her style focuses on using solid footwork and athleticism to land those explosive shots.
The champ can rely on those physical skills, but she's been actively improving her ring generalship and taking a more measured approach instead of blitzing her opponents and grinding them down.
Baumgardner doesn't rely on single shots and can be active, throwing compact combinations and using her footwork to open her attack and land shots from angles her opponents do not see.
Though she is a champion, she's still improving her game when she could easily rest on her laurels, and that doesn't bode well for the challenger, Leila Beaudoin.
Beaudoin is an outside fighter who doesn't pack power, and her best defense is to keep the fight at mid range.
Baumgardner is explosive, but her work comes in short bursts, and there is an opportunity for the challenger to capitalize on that with defensive mindfulness and by preventing the champion from getting set with high volume and evasive footwork.
While Beaudoin looks to have good fundamental skills, she's going to be outgunned if Baumgardner gets inside, and her best hopes of scoring an upset are to frustrate the champion with frequent clinches, should the fight get any closer than the mid range.
Though Beaudoin is a fine fighter, she doesn't have the style to neutralize Baumgardner's power, nor is she physical enough to limit her mobility. Baumgardner is tough and can land a devastating shot at any time.
Beaudoin might take risks early on by tying her up and targeting her body when they're against the ropes, but there isn't anything I've observed in her game that suggests she'll be able to pull off an upset.
Best best analysis
There's nothing Beaudoin can do to stop Baumgardner's momentum. While she has amateur experience, her professional run hasn't prepared her for the class difference she'll face against the heavy-handed champion.
I expect Beaudoin to try and do something early to no avail, and she'll opt to shell up behind a high guard and be an open book for Baumgardner by the middle of the fight. My best bet is that Baumgardner will win via decision.
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Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin odds
| Method of victory | Alycia Baumgardner | Leila Beaudoin |
|---|---|---|
| Win outright | -1400 | +750 |
| Win by KO/TKO | +200 | +2000 |
| Win by points or decision | -200 | +1200 |
| Draw | +1800 | +1800 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of December 19.
Alycia Baumgardner vs Leila Beaudoin tale of the tape
| Baumgardner | Beaudoin | |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 29 |
| 5-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-4 |
| Super featherweight | Weight Class | Super featherweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 62 inches |
| 16-1 | Record | 13-1 |
| 7 KOs | Wins by KO | 2 KOs |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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