Jake Paul continues to test the limits of his boxing experiment, but his fight against Anthony Joshua marks his biggest step up to date.
Paul faces an Olympic gold medalist and two-time heavyweight champion in one of the most talked-about crossover bouts of the year — a matchup that has sparked debate on both sides, including why Jake Paul can defeat Anthony Joshua.
Rather than traditional sportsbook odds, Kalshi offers prediction markets that price Paul vs. Joshua outcomes by probability.
I'm focusing on two Kalshi markets that stand out from a value and matchup perspective ahead of Saturday’s Netflix-streamed bout on December 19.
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua Kalshi predictions
Kalshi offers several fight outcome markets for Paul vs. Joshua. Rather than spreading bets across every option, we’re focusing on two markets that stand out from a value and probability standpoint.
Paul vs Anthony: Who will win?
Anthony Joshua holds clear advantages in experience, size, and proven elite-level competition. He’s faced — and beaten — top-tier heavyweights over multiple title runs, while Paul is still navigating the jump from novelty bouts to true world-class opposition.
Joshua’s power and discipline should dictate the terms, especially if he’s patient early and forces Paul into extended defensive sequences. Over a longer bout, Joshua’s conditioning, ring IQ, and ability to capitalize on mistakes give him the most reliable path to victory.
While the underdog always carries a puncher’s chance, this may be a step too far for Paul against a proven heavyweight.
Pick: Anthony Joshua to win
Paul vs Anthony: What song will Jake Paul walk out to?
Walkout music is a small but telling part of a fighter’s mindset, especially for someone as image-conscious as Jake Paul. His past selections lean more toward bravado, irony, and self-branding than traditional intimidation.
Before looking ahead to Saturday’s bout, it’s worth revisiting some of Paul’s previous walkout choices. The Problem Child has entered the ring to “Got It On Me” by Pop Smoke, “Paper Planes” by MIA., “Basketball” by Bow Wow & Co., “Till I Die” by Machine Gun Kelly, and even “YMCA” by the Village People, a mix that highlights both confidence and calculated spectacle.
That variety continues to shape the current Kalshi market. The most predicted market is “23” by Jake Paul, a self-referential choice that fits his tendency to control the narrative on fight night.
Other available selections include “In the Air Tonight” by Phil Collins and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” by Brenda Lee, both of which would represent a sharper tonal pivot.
There’s also outside consideration for “American Hero,” following Paul’s recent Instagram tribute to Hulk Hogan, which underscores his ongoing embrace of pro-wrestling theatrics.
Still, given Paul’s history and branding instincts, the most straightforward outcome remains the one tied directly to his own identity.
Jake Paul pays tribute to the late Hulk Hogan with his fight night outfit against Anthony Joshua 🔥 pic.twitter.com/JhfAD2Tl7G
— Source of Boxing (@Sourceofboxing) December 16, 2025
Pick: "23" by Jake Paul
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Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua tale of the tape
| Category | Jake Paul | Anthony Joshua |
|---|---|---|
| Full name | Jake Joseph Paul | Anthony Oluwafemi Olaseni Joshua |
| Nickname | The Problem Child | AJ |
| Nationality | American (Cleveland, Ohio, USA) | British (Watford, England) |
| Age | 28 | 36 |
| Primary weight class | Cruiserweight / Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Height | 6 ft 1 in (185 cm) | 6 ft 6 in (198 cm) |
| Reach | 76 in (193 cm) | 82 in (208 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Professional record | 12-1 (7 KOs) | 28-4 (25 KOs) |
| Total pro bouts | 13 | 32 |
How to watch Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua
| Location | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date | Friday, December 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Netflix |
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