Errol Spence Jr. vs. Tim Tszyu takes place Saturday, July 25 at Afterpay Arena in Sydney, Australia.
Spence returns for the first time in three years to face former world champion Tszyu in a pivotal crossroads fight, entering as a slight betting favorite.
Check out our Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu predictions and free betting picks for this blockbuster showdown.
Who will win Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu: Spence Jr. (-130)
Spence’s long layoff creates uncertainty, but the move up in weight should help him physically. Once he finds his timing, his superior technique, reach, and body work should allow him to take control and pull away on the scorecards.
Tszyu’s pressure could test Spence early, but his recent form suggests he has reached his ceiling against quality opposition.
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Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu best bet: Spence Jr. to win by decision (+285)
Spence by decision is my best bet because I expect some ring rust, and his stoppages tend to come through accumulation.
Tszyu fights in straight lines and willingly absorbs shots while searching for openings, which is the type of style Spence can systematically pick apart.
The time away and move up in weight may also have benefited Spence physically.
Tszyu is durable enough to hear the final bell and dangerous enough to create some tense moments early, but Spence’s jab, body work, and ring generalship should ultimately earn him a clear decision.
COVERS INTEL: Before his loss to Crawford and subsequent layoff, Spence went the distance in six of his previous eight victories, relying on a steady jab, sharp counters, and quality body work to systematically outbox opponents.Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu odds
| Bet99 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Errol Spence Jr. | Tim Tszyu |
| To win outright | -130 | +100 |
| To win by KO/TKO | +215 | +220 |
| To win by points or decision | +285 | +390 |
| Total rounds | Over 9.5 -130 |
Under 9.5 +100 |
Odds as of July 24.
The narrow moneyline reflects the uncertainty surrounding Spence after three years away, but his +285 decision price is the most attractive method-of-victory option. The Over 9.5 rounds at -130 supports the same fight script, with Tszyu’s durability likely keeping him upright. Had this matchup happened before Spence’s loss to Crawford and lengthy layoff, he almost certainly would have entered as a much larger favorite.
Errol Spence Jr. vs Tim Tszyu tale of the tape
| Errol Spence Jr. | Tim Tszyu | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 31 |
| 5-foot-9 1/2 | Height | 5-foot-8 1/2 |
| Middleweight | Weight Class | Middleweight |
| 72 inches | Reach | 70 1/2 inches |
| 28-1 | Record | 27-3 |
| 22 | Wins by KO | 18 |
Spence holds slight advantages in height and reach, but the biggest difference is experience against elite opposition. This will be Spence’s middleweight debut, while Tszyu is five years younger but has lost three of his last four championship-level bouts. Spence’s only defeat came against Terence Crawford, and had this matchup been made three years ago, he likely would have entered as a significantly heavier favorite.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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