Jake Paul is entering the boxing ring again, and this time he isn't facing a fellow YouTuber, a washed-up former MMA fighter, or somebody who qualifies for the senior's discount at Denny's.
This time, he's going up against 36-year-old, man-mountain and former two-time heavyweight champion Anthony Joshua in a highly-publicized bout in Miami on Friday, December 19.
The Paul vs. Joshua odds have the "Problem Child" as a +625 underdog against A.J., but some of the biggest names in combat sports think that Paul is capable of pulling off the upset.
I break down those arguments while also letting you know the biggest reason why I think Jake Paul will defeat Anthony Joshua this Friday.
Can Jake Paul beat Anthony Joshua?
Anthony Joshua owns every traditional boxing edge, but that hasn’t stopped respected voices from giving Jake Paul a puncher’s chance.
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What Tyson Fury thinks about Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua
One of the greatest heavyweight fighters of the modern era, the Gypsy King predicted a win for Paul earlier this year. “I think Jake Paul knocks him out,” Fury told The Ring in July, “I think AJ is a spent force, and I think Jake Paul is on the rise.”
Tyson Fury picks Jake Paul to beat Anthony Joshua in potential fight https://t.co/OZARdJeh4S pic.twitter.com/OzzPEWAsbi
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) July 20, 2025
Verdict: Fury is full of it. Let's not forget that Fury and Joshua have a long-standing beef that has never materialized in the ring. Tyson's father, John, is giving the Problem Child far less credit, saying that "Joshua could knock Jake Paul out with his d**k." That isn't surprising since John's other son, Tommy Fury, handed Paul his only career loss a couple of years ago, despite being more of a Reality TV star than a legitimate boxer.
Tyson Fury himself has somewhat walked back his earlier comment, telling OOOsch TV last week that he expects the fight to go the distance.
Demetrious Johnson on Jake Paul’s knockout chances
The former UFC flyweight GOAT is giving Paul a puncher's chance. "I think Jake can knock him out — Anthony Joshua's been knocked out by some weird ass shots before," said Johnson.
Demetrious Johnson picks Jake Paul to KO Anthony Joshua 😳
— MMA UNCENSORED (@MMAUNCENSORED1) December 12, 2025
"Anthony Joshua has been knocked out by some weird ass shots. Jake Paul can land one of those shots.”
Via: @MightyMouse pic.twitter.com/UBbZukrYzk
Johnson is an MMA great, but he has some bizarre takes as an analyst. Joshua has been dropped by massive former champs like Daniel Dubois and Andy Ruiz Jr. not somebody like Paul, who couldn't knock out a washed-up middleweight like Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. or a 58-year-old Mike Tyson.
Jake Paul’s strategy and weight cut plan
Paul's team imposed a 245-pound limit on this fight, ostensibly to level the playing field against the massive Joshua. Paul believes that this strategy led to a weaker version of Joshua, who doesn't normally cut weight.
"He's taking away his best thing against me, which is his power," Paul said regarding the weight stipulation. "We've seen him when he's a little bit lighter and there's not as much thump on the punches. I believe my skills are better than his, which is a crazy thing to say but he's a very basic fighter."
Paul's not going to admit he's out of his league against Joshua, so the confidence makes sense. After all, he's trying to sell a fight here. That said, there's a gulf between these two when it comes to skills and experience, and AJ has the upper hand. Joshua has fought in this weight range before and claimed to be 243.8 pounds two weeks ago.
Paul may have been better off not asking AJ to cut weight and instead hoping that the champ showed up lazy and out of shape.
The Oddsmakers
Jake Paul vs Anthony Joshua odds
View the latest Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua odds at FanDuel.
Paul’s +700 price gives him a 12.5% implied chance to pull the upset...a small number, but not zero.
Keep in mind that the Raiders have nearly the same odds (+700) to beat the Texans this week. In fact, Joshua was a bigger favorite at -1400 when he faced former WBA champ Robert Helenius two years ago.
Those odds might be influenced by the public (cough* casual fans) backing the social media star at plus money. But it's telling that books are moving the line, instead of sticking to their guns with the earlier price on A.J. If oddsmakers are reluctant to count Paul out, maybe we should be as well.
The Narrative
The primary reason why Paul can beat Joshua is that this is his story, and we're all just watching. This isn't a genuine boxing matchup; it's entertainment for the masses on a global stage.
Not only did Paul create, promote, and set the ground rules for this event, but he'll be splitting a purse of almost $200 million with the former champ. That's nearly 100 million reasons for Joshua not to go all out.
Don't forget that Paul's previous fights have seen their share of controversy. Fans speculated that there was an agreement in the Tyson bout to carry the fight to a decision, and others thought that the Tyron Woodley KO looked suspicious.
If A.J. pulls his punches and doesn't go hard on Paul, there's a possibility this goes to the judges. In which case, who knows what will happen?
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Why Jake Paul Can Beat Anthony Joshua
Jake Paul is a +700 underdog compared to Anthony Joshua who checks in at -1300.
The fight is scheduled for Friday, December 19.
You can stream all the action on Netflix.
