David Benavidez vs Oleksandr Gvozdyk Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Benavidez Wins Light Heavyweight Debut

Benavidez is opening up the next chapter of his career in his first bout at light heavyweight, and our boxing picks expect him to pass with relative ease.

Danny Howard - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Danny Howard • Betting Analyst
Jun 13, 2024 • 08:00 ET • 4 min read
David Benavidez Boxing
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

David Benavidez vs. Oleksandr Gvodyzk serves as the co-main event on the Gervonta Davis vs. Frank Martin card from Las Vegas. 

With no hopes of luring Saul “Canelo” Alvarez into the ring, Benavidez moves up to light heavyweight to face the formidable former champion Gvodzyk in the first step of the next stage of his career.

Boxing odds have Benavidez as a heavy -650 favorite, and Gvodzyk as a +450 underdog. Here are my best free Benavidez vs Gvodzyk predictions from the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

Benavidez vs Gvozdyk prediction and pick

Fight analysis

Oleksandr Gvodzyk was considered one of the best light heavyweights in the world at one point. He was a punishing puncher who beat former champion Adonis Stevenson into a coma, and he went 10 hard rounds with Artur Beterbiev — actually winning the fight before Beterbiev dropped him three times and stopped him. 

Gvodzyk has won his last four fights after returning from a four-year hiatus and he still looks like a formidable challenger. This should serve as a stern test for Benavidez, who has moved up to light heavyweight following repeated failed attempts to convince Saul "Canelo" Alvarez to fight him.

Benavidez was a relentless terror at super middleweight, only undone by his lack of maturity outside of the ring. He's turned the corner in recent years and is on a career-defining run, having battered rival Caleb Plant and then following that up with a brutal sixth-round knockout of the previously undefeated Demetrius Andrade last November. 

With his size advantage likely to be nullified at light heavyweight, Benavidez can fall back on his quick hands and technique and might be able to carry over his high-volume approach with less strain now that he doesn't have to make the 168-pound limit anymore.

The reason Gvodzyk is a good test for Benavidez, even though he's 37 years old and recently unretired, is he's technically solid and fearless. Gvodzyk won't shy away from Benavidez on the inside, and he'll be big enough to want to test his power and more willing to stand in the pocket than Benavidez's other opponents.

However, Gvodzyk was never hard to hit and is going to struggle with the volume and hand speed unless he can slow Benavidez down early enough or curb his volume by putting him on the back foot.

Though this fight should start competitive, Benavidez possesses the skills and abilities to overcome Gvodzyk. It'll be interesting to see how his power carries over to the new weight class and what adjustments he'll make to remain efficient, but from what we've seen, he should fit right in.

Pick: Benavidez moneyline (-650 at DraftKings)

Best best analysis

It would be telling for Benavidez to come up in weight and stop Gvodzyk, even if the former champion is past his best and creeping towards his 40s. Gvodzyk tends to fade late in fights, and Benavidez has stopped all but one opponent dating back to 2019.

With Benavidez's stoppages usually coming by way of volume rather than sheer force and given Gvodzyk's considerable power, it might not be until the later rounds Benavidez can begin enjoying the spoils of his work.

However, I do believe he can get it done. Expect Benavidez to weather an early storm but eventually have Gvodzyk reeling and on the receiving end of a beating, with a stoppage coming in the second half of the fight.

Pick: Benavidez to win in Round 7-12 (+145 at DraftKings)

David Benavidez vs Oleksandr Gvozdyk odds

Method of victory David Benavidez Oleksandr Gvozdyk
Win outright -650 +450
Win by KO/TKO -190 +800
Win by points or decision +280 +1,100
Draw +1,800 +1,800

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 6-12.

David Benavidez vs Oleksandr Gvozdyk tale of the tape

Benavidez   Gvozdyk
27 Age 37
6-foot-2 Height 6-foot-2
167 lbs Weight 180 lbs
74.5 inches Reach 75.5 inches
28-0 (24 KO) Record 20-1 (16 KO)

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