Sebastian Fundora vs. Ermal Hadribeaj headlines Saturday's boxing card at The Chelsea at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas.
Fundora returns to defend his WBC super welterweight title six months after becoming the first fighter to stop Keith Thurman, while the undefeated Hadribeaj takes a massive step up in competition for his first world title opportunity.
Check out our Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj predictions and free betting picks for this super welterweight showdown on Saturday, Oct. 17.
Who will win Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj: Fundora (-1400)
Sebastian Fundora is my pick. The 6-foot-6 champion brings an 80-inch reach, tremendous punching volume, and considerably more high-level experience against an undefeated challenger who has yet to prove himself at this level.
Nothing on Ermal Hadribeaj’s record suggests he's prepared for what Fundora brings into the ring. At -1800, Fundora is far too expensive to back outright, but I expect him to win comfortably.
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Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj best bet: Fundora by KO/TKO (-300)
Hadribeaj has earned this opportunity, but it's an enormous step up against a champion who combines an almost absurd physical frame for the division with relentless punching volume.
Fundora has been sitting on his shots and landing with more authority in recent fights, including stopping Keith Thurman in March. I don't see Hadribeaj having the experience or offensive firepower to keep him honest.
COVERS INTEL: Fundora has won his last three fights by stoppage, while Hadribeaj has recorded just eight knockouts in 23 professional victories.Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj prop: Fundora wins in Rounds 1-6 (+175)
I'm backing Fundora to get the stoppage within the first six rounds. Hadribeaj has never faced anyone with Fundora's size, volume, and championship-level experience, and I expect that difference to show almost immediately.
Fundora throws enough punches to overwhelm opponents without needing to load up on individual shots, and Hadribeaj isn't the kind of puncher who should consistently discourage him from pressing forward.
With Fundora looking to build on three consecutive stoppage victories, I expect him to take control early and finish the job before the second half.
Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Sebastian Fundora | Ermal Hadribeaj |
| To win outright | -1400 | +700 |
| To win by KO/TKO | -300 | +1400 |
| To win by decision/technical decision | +330 | +1400 |
| Total rounds | Over 7.5 -125 |
Under 7.5 -110 |
Odds as of Oct. 15.
Fundora is an overwhelming -1400 favorite, and his -300 KO/TKO price reflects the market's expectation that he'll overwhelm the undefeated challenger.
Hadribeaj has yet to face anyone approaching Fundora's level, making the champion's size, relentless volume, and experience difficult to overcome. The total is set at 7.5 rounds, with the Over narrowly favored at -125.
I expect Fundora to impose himself much earlier, making a stoppage within the first six rounds my preferred alternative to laying insane juice on the moneyline.
Sebastian Fundora vs Ermal Hadribeaj tale of the tape
| Sebastian Fundora | Ermal Hadribeaj | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-6 | Height | 5-foot-10 |
| Super Welterweight | Weight Class | Super Welterweight |
| 80 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 24-1-1 | Record | 23-0-1 |
| 16 | Wins by KO | 8 |
Fundora holds an enormous physical advantage, standing more than seven inches taller than Hadribeaj, while bringing an 80-inch reach into the ring. The champion also owns a significant edge in finishing power, recording 16 knockouts in 24 victories compared to just eight in Hadribeaj's 23 wins
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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