MLB Daily Line Drive: July 11 picks, betting odds and analysis

Jul 11, 2018 |

Expect fireworks at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, while the Blue Jays look to extend their impressive interleague run. We break down Wednesday's complete MLB schedule with in-depth analysis, tips and our favorite picks in today's edition of MLB Daily Line Drive.


New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles (+130, 9.5)

The Baltimore Orioles might be headed for a historically terrible season, but they still get up for games against their division-rival New York Yankees. Six of the Orioles' 26 victories this season have come against the Bronx Bombers, including Tuesday's 6-5 triumph. And they're in position to repeat the feat Wednesday in a game that should feature plenty of offense.

The Orioles have been a sensational Over option of late, with four of their previous five games having gone above the number. And while Yankees starter Sonny Gray is just 2-6 O/U on the road this season, he has been positively abysmal of late, surrendering 15 runs over 11 innings in his previous three starts while failing to get out of the third inning in back-to-back outings.

With Orioles counterpart Dylan Bundy sporting a 4.18 home ERA and the Yankees ranking second in major league OPS (.792), both teams are set to unload in the series finale. We recommend the Over despite the total hovering near double digits.

Pick: Over 9.5

Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves (-156, 9)

It's nice to be able to pick the low-hanging betting fruit, but sometimes the trends will compel you to take a shot on an underdog. The Toronto Blue Jays find themselves in that position Wednesday night as they wrap up their two-game interleague mini-series in Atlanta. Toronto is a considerable 'dog against Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz, but recent trends give hope for an upset.

The Blue Jays have been one of the stronger plays in interleague action of late, having won six of their previous seven games against National League teams with winning records while going 4-1 in their previous five interleague road games. They've also got the right guy on the mound in right-hander Sam Gaviglio, having prevailed in each of his last four starts.

With the Braves having gone just 2-9 in their last 11 interleague games vs. a righty, and having lost six of their past seven overall, there's a compelling reason to take the road team in this one.

Pick: Blue Jays (+146)

Yesterday’s picks: 1-1
Season Record: 100-97-3

Lance McCullers Jr. Houston Astros MLB Odds


Streaking: Lance McCullers Jr., Houston Astros (10-3, 3.41 ERA, $529)

Few pitchers in baseball have been as dependable over the past month-and-a-half as McCullers, who has racked up seven straight quality starts over that stretch – and Houston has won all seven of those games. McCullers has curtailed his walks while keeping the ball in the park, and his 118 strikeouts are good for 11th among American League starters.

Consider a bet on the Houston money line at -115. The way McCullers is dealing, it's one of the better plays on Wednesday's slate.

Slumping: Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks (0-3, 9.00, $-402)

Like a novice gambler in Vegas, Miller has lost more than $400 at an incredible rate. The Diamondbacks right-hander has lost each of his first three starts of 2018 and has looked dreadful in all three, allowing 16 runs – 14 earned – through his first 14 innings. With Arizona having been the favorite in all three starts, any faith in him has resulted in wasted money.

A trip to Colorado doesn't usually help a pitcher get right, so stay far away from Miller, even at +120.

3 UP, 3 DOWN

Anyone for Seconds?

While it's incredible that Bartolo Colon is still going at age 44, the Texas Rangers righty is starting to show his age. His 4.65 ERA is a major cause for concern, and he has had a significant issue getting through the bottom half of opposing teams' batting orders the first time through. Colon sports a 7.31 second-inning ERA and has surrendered five homers in the frame over his 16 starts.

Boston is an incredible -360 home faves in this one, but if you're looking for a better way to bet the Red Sox, take them to lead after two innings at a much more reasonable -110.

Scoring by the Bay

As a general rule, bettors should avoid any pitcher in his first start coming back from injury – and that was certainly the case for Johnny Cueto, who was torched for five runs over five innings last time out against St. Louis. But be warned: Cueto has been much less effective at home (2-1, 4.24 ERA) than on the road (1-0, 0.00) entering Wednesday's tilt with the visiting Cubs.

With the Cubs having gone 8-3 O/U in their last 11 vs. a righty starter, the Giants 15-4-2 O/U in Cueto's last 21 home starts and Manny Gonzalez-umpired games going Over 38 of the past 57 times, the Over-8.5 play is our recommendation.

Hits Galore

How about those Cincinnati Reds! After prevailing 7-5 in their interleague series opener against rival Cleveland, the Reds rallied for seven runs in the ninth inning Tuesday to pull out a 7-4 victory. The teams wrap up their three-game set Wednesday, and Cincinnati comes in as the fifth-ranked team in the majors in average hits per game on the road at 9.24.

With Cincinnati's offense clicking and that Cleveland bullpen a total disaster, look for the Reds to finish with more hits than the Indians (+125).

Wednesday's Top Consensus

Here are the top side and total plays according to the public in our Covers Consensus. Get up-to-the-minute consensus data for every game here.

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