England return to the World Cup quarterfinal stage today after surviving a thriller in Mexico, and now the Three Lions face a very different challenge against Norway.
England are -200 favorites to advance in the latest World Cup odds, while Norway sit at +166 to qualify after stunning Brazil in the Round of 16.
The headline is obvious: Harry Kane vs. Erling Haaland in a knockout match with a semifinal spot on the line. But my England vs. Norway predictions are built around England’s deeper squad, greater control in midfield, and ability to get this done inside 90 minutes.
Find out more in my World Cup picks for Saturday, July 11, with kickoff set for 5 p.m. ET on FOX.
England vs Norway predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: England | -116 |
| Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 | -137 |
| Goal scorer pick: Bukayo Saka | +280 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win England vs Norway: England (-116)
After prevailing with 10 men at the Azteca, England aren't just packed with elite talent; they truly believe and have shown their grit and determination in the World Cup bracket.
Notably, Norway has given up a goal in every single game so far. Until Carlo Ancelotti brought on Neymar and disrupted Brazil's attack, it was the South Americans who were in the ascendancy, while Norway struggled against Senegal and Ivory Coast at times.
Defense is Norway's Achilles heel and the reason England will win. They lack speed, as do the two midfielders who shield them. That puts England in a strong place given the makeup of Thomas Tuchel's starting lineup, which values speed in wide positions.
The ability of Bukayo Saka and Anthony Gordon to transition the ball quickly down the flanks, alongside fullbacks Djed Spence and Nico O'Reilly, will be the difference-maker here, creating overloads that open space for Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham in the middle.
Playable to -125.
COVERS INTEL: Norway has an average xGA of 1.64, the highest mark among the eight teams to reach the quarterfinal stage.England vs Norway Over/Under pick: Over 2.5 (-137)
Every single Norway game has seen both teams score and at least three total goals. In Haaland, they have a player who can drag them back into games from nowhere.
Meanwhile, England has conceded in 60% of their games and has continually had issues fielding the same back four. That continues here with Jarrell Quansah suspended, meaning a sixth straight game with a different defense. England's central defenders Ezri Konsa and Marc Guehi are both solid choices, but neither has the physicality or height of Haaland.
There's also the difference in refereeing between the Premier League and the World Cup, which means that defenders' experience against Haaland might not be quite as useful as you'd expect.
Neither side truly has confidence in their defense, so we could see a shootout at the Hard Rock Stadium. I’d play this until -150.
England vs Norway goal scorer pick: Bukayo Saka (+280)
On a per-90-minute basis, Saka has averaged 2.34 shots in the World Cup, just shy of Bellingham's 2.68.
Factor in England's ability to attack on the counter, along with Saka's favorable matchup against David Møller Wolfe — who leads Norway in fouls committed — and we should see Saka's scoring prowess on full display.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
England vs Norway projected lineup
England (4-2-3-1): Pickford; Spence, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly; Rice, Anderson; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane
Norway (4-2-3-1): Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe; Berge, Berg; Sorloth, Odegaard, Nusa; Haaland
England vs Norway injuries
England: Jarrell Quansah DEF (Out), Reece James RB (Questionable).
Norway: No key injuries to report.
England vs Norway weather
It’ll be sunny in Miami on Saturday, with temperatures sitting in the upper 80s.
England vs Norway odds
 England |
 Norway |
|
|---|---|---|
| -116 | Moneyline | +313 |
| +252 | Draw | +252 |
| Over 2.5 (-137) | Total | Under 2.5 (+114) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch England vs Norway
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida |
| Date | Saturday, July 11, 2026 |
| Time | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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