This has been one of the Premier League's most exciting fixtures over the years. As a result of the wonderful memories they have created, Newcastle and Liverpool face off, with many neutrals seeing this as the EPL's top game of the opening weekend.
My best Newcastle vs. Liverpool predictions support the hosts, and I'm confident this will be a high-scoring encounter, too.
Read on for my free betting picks for Sunday, Aug. 23, with kickoff at 11.30 a.m. ET on USA Network.
Newcastle vs Liverpool picks and predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Newcastle vs Liverpool: Newcastle +1.5
Kalshi probability: 72%
The presence of two new managers on the touchline adds an element of intriguing uncertainty to this potentially thrilling St James' Park encounter.
Having arrived from Germany's Hoffenheim, Matthias Jaissle takes charge of the hosts for the first time. At Liverpool, Andoni Iraola is the new boss, having joined from Bournemouth in June.
There has been speculation all summer about what the two coaches will do with their new squads. Yet it will take at least three games before clear patterns of play start to emerge.
The market makes Liverpool clear favorites: the Reds are given a 52% chance of collecting all three points. Home advantage would appear to be little advantage for Newcastle: the Tynesiders are rank outsiders (24% chance).
I believe the hosts are underrated. Newcastle won 10 of their 19 home games last season as part of a W10-D2-L7 overall record. Significantly, Newcastle lost just one home game in the entire campaign by more than one goal (0-2 vs Aston Villa, Jan 2026).
Our safe handicap selection is to back Newcastle +1.5. You will secure a profit as long as the home team avoids defeat by at least two goals.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Over/Under pick: Over 2.5
Kalshi probability: 65%
Look back through the most recent head-to-heads, and you'll see why my selection is Over.
Four of the last five encounters (both home and away for Newcastle) have featured not only Over 2.5 Goals but also Over 3.5 and 4.5 Goals. The five fixtures in question have generated an average of 4.8 goals per game.
Thirteen of the last 20 meetings between the teams in all competitions have had three or more goals. Looking back across the last 60 head-to-heads in the EPL, the goals-per-game average is above the 3.0 line.
New managers will bring their own dynamic to their teams, of course. In Jaissle's case, the early signs suggest that, under his guidance, Newcastle will be involved in some high-scoring encounters.
Newcastle's five friendly fixtures in the run-up to the new season generated an average of 3.4 goals per game. The Over 2.5 Goals line was broken in four of those five matches.
Over 3.5 Goals is available at 42%. I prefer the more conservative Over 2.5 Goals selection instead.
Newcastle vs Liverpool odds
 Newcastle |
 Liverpool |
|
|---|---|---|
| 24% | Moneyline | 52% |
| 25% | Draw | 25% |
| Over 2.5 (65%) | Total | Under 2.5 (36%) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
Newcastle vs Liverpool opening odds
- Moneyline: Newcastle 24% | Liverpool 52%
- Draw: 25%
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (65%) | Under 2.5 (36%)
How to watch Newcastle vs Liverpool
| Location | St. James' Park, Newcastle, England |
| Date | Sunday, Aug. 23, 2026 |
| Time | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV | USA |
| Weather | Sunny skies and warm |
Newcastle vs Liverpool key injuries
Newcastle: Joelinton CM (Out), Burn CB (Doubtful), Livramento RB (Doubtful).
Liverpool: Ekitike ST (Out), Jones CM (Doubtful).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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