The opening weekend of the Premier League campaign culminates on Monday afternoon at Craven Cottage as Fulham welcomes Chelsea in a West London derby.
It’s a reunion of sorts, as Álvaro Arbeloa and Xabi Alonso — former teammates and both managers at Real Madrid last season — make their Premier League managerial debuts.
My Fulham vs. Chelsea predictions explain why only Alonso and the favored Blues will come away from their match on Monday, Aug. 24, with a positive result.
Fulham vs Chelsea picks and predictions
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TOP PICK
Who will win Fulham vs Chelsea: Chelsea
Kalshi probability: 53%
Watching Chelsea in the preseason, I was quite impressed with how well Joao Pedro looked. Deployed both as a striker and a No. 10, the Brazilian was allowed to rotate with new signing Morgan Rogers and key playmaker Cole Palmer.
It led to Pedro looking as dangerous as he did in the first half of last season, scoring a brace against both AC Milan and Real Sociedad in Chelsea’s final two preseason fixtures. What makes those stand out is the fact he played ST against Sociedad, and the left attacking mid role vs. Milan.
That fluidity is a hallmark of Alonso’s systems at both Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen, and why Fulham will be overwhelmed on Monday afternoon.
Alonso utilizes a 3-4-2-1 setup with the wingbacks overlapping, putting pressure on opponents and pinning them back. This limits the ability of LB Antonee Robinson from being able to quickly push forward in support, hamstringing one of Fulham’s best secondary attackers.
The loss of Harry Wilson and Raúl Jiménez denies Fulham much of their attacking returns from a season ago. While ST Gonzalo García and CAM César Palacios will likely succeed, they’ll just as likely be isolated and starved of service.
Chelsea’s depth in attack will thrive in Alonso’s system as they open the campaign with three points.
Play this to 60%.
Fulham vs Chelsea Over/Under pick: Over 2.5
Kalshi probability: 58%
This derby is a somewhat fierce one, and the fixture has often led to goals. The winning club has scored multiple goals in 13 of the last 15 Premier League meetings, and three of the last four have ended with a 2-1 scoreline.
I’m expecting more of the same on Monday for a few reasons. First, Chelsea could reach the number on their own much as they did in their last three preseason fixtures.
The trio of Pedro, Rogers, and Palmer are all capable of creating a goal from nothing, while Alonso can turn to Pedro Neto, Nicolas Jackson, and the recently returned Mykhaylo Mudryk off the bench. Chelsea finished sixth in 18-yard box touches last season, and I expect improvement on that number.
On the flip side, Fulham are dangerous enough to find a goal themselves on the counter. Chelsea’s midfield will be hampered by the absence of Enzo Fernandez, whose future with the club is up in the air, while the suspension to Wesley Fofana robs them of one of their top defenders. This could leave them a bit exposed on the break given Alonso's tactics.
Both managers will want to claim victory in their first match in charge, especially Alonso. I’m expecting a match with plenty of scoring opportunities, with both sides going for it should things be level in the latter stages.
Play this to 60% as well. If you're looking for a bit safer play, the Chelsea team total Over 1.5 at 55% is also a strong option.
Fulham vs Chelsea odds
 Fulham |
 Chelsea |
|
|---|---|---|
| 24% | Moneyline | 53% |
| 25% | Draw | 25% |
| Over 2.5 (58%) | Total | Under 2.5 (43%) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
Fulham vs Chelsea opening odds
- Moneyline: Fulham 26% | Chelsea 50%
- Draw: 30%
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
How to watch Fulham vs Chelsea
| Location |
Craven Cottage, London, England
|
| Date | Monday, August 24, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | USA Network |
Fulham vs Chelsea key injuries
Fulham: Joachim Anderson CB (Out), Tom Cairney CM (Out).
Chelsea: Mamadou Sarr CB (Out), Wesley Fofana CB (Out), Enzo Fernandez CM (Doubtful), Jordan Henderson CM (Out), Danny Welbeck ST (Questionable).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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