Fixture congestion is hitting Major League Soccer clubs hard, and this weekend brings another full slate of 15 matches for Matchday 21.
Just four of 15 home sides claimed victory midweek, with eight away sides claiming all three points, but my MLS moneyline picks are backing the home sides to get back on track
Led by an entertaining showdown between Vancouver and Dallas, here are my free betting picks for Matchday 21!
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 21
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Orlando City SC vs  Real Salt Lake |
49% |
 New York Red Bulls vs  Chicago Fire |
41% |
 CF Montreal vs  LA Galaxy |
46% |
 Inter Miami FC vs  Toronto FC |
Draw 13% |
 FC Cincinnati vs  Seattle Sounders |
61% |
 Charlotte FC vs  D.C. United |
54% |
 St. Louis CITY SC vs  Houston Dynamo |
29% |
 Nashville SC vs  Columbus Crew SC |
58% |
 Austin FC vs  Philadelphia Union |
46% |
 Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs  FC Dallas |
Draw 19% |
 San Jose Earthquakes vs  Minnesota United FC |
44% |
 San Diego FC vs  Colorado Rapids |
Draw 25% |
 LAFC vs  Portland Timbers |
Draw 20% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 20
Orlando City SC vs Real Salt Lake pick: Orlando City
Real Salt Lake was able to pull level with Dallas on Wednesday, but fell short after conceding in stoppage time. They've now taken just three points from their last six in MLS action and hit the road, where they've won just once in nine matches. Orlando were unfortunate not to win against Chicago, but they'll claim all three points here against an RSL side that will be looking ahead to Tuesday's League Cup fixture vs. Leon.
NY Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire pick: Chicago Fire
Chicago's win in Orlando was their sixth victory on the trot in all competitions, their longest winning streak in 28 years. The Red Bulls are coming off their fourth home shutout defeat, and won't have the answers to stop Robert Lewandowski and the red-hot Fire.
CF Montreal vs LA Galaxy pick: CF Montreal
Despite playing with just 10 men for half the match, the Galaxy got a late goal to beat San Jose and get their first win since before the World Cup. However, they won despite allowing 2.36 xG, and now travel cross-country on short rest. CF Montreal will be poised to extend a four-match unbeaten run, while picking up just their sixth victory of the MLS season.
Inter Miami vs Toronto FC pick: Draw
Things got ugly at the end of Inter Miami's 2-2 draw with Philadelphia, and Yannick Bright is suspended as a result. Toronto will be without Walker Zimmerman, but will be bolstered by their comeback from 3-1 down against Charlotte while a man down. I cannot back Inter Miami at this number, not with how inconsistent they've been and how well Toronto have been battling of late, so I'll look to capitalize on the draw at this number.
FC Cincinnati vs Seattle Sounders pick: FC Cincinnati
Seattle's injury list is staggering, and there's simply not much more they can do given the players they're missing. Traveling across the country on short rest to deal with Evander is a tough situation, especially when having to defend the likes of Evander for 90 minutes. Cincinnati's 61% probability is juicy, but it's also warranted.
Charlotte FC vs DC United pick: Charlotte FC
Charlotte still has to be wondering how exactly they dropped points against Toronto, but they've got no time to dwell on it with the short turnaround. That said, their improved offensive output of late will be enough to see off a DC United side that hasn't kept a clean sheet in nine matches and has scored just one goal over their past two outings.
St. Louis City SC vs Houston Dynamo FC pick: Houston
Houston's win in Vancouver was their fifth-straight victory in MLS without conceding a goal, something only two other clubs have ever done in league history. It was also a statement win, and one I find hard to ignore. While St. Louis City is unbeaten in 10, their draw with Sporting KC showed they struggled to create chances without Marcel Hartel, and that will be their downfall here.
Nashville SC vs Columbus Crew pick: Nashville
Nashville remain red-hot as they've now extended their lead in the race for the Supporters' Shield to seven points over Inter Miami, and they've taken 28 of a possible 30 points at home this season. The Crew looked tired against Montreal, and their attack generated just 0.31 xG despite dominating possession. They won't have the answers for this dangerous Nashville attack led by Sam Surridge.
Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union pick: Philadelphia Union
Cavan Sullivan's red card was rescinded by MLS, and rightly so. He's in stellar form, and his creativity in the final third will be key to unlocking an Austin side that has conceded just nine goals in nine home matches. Austin's win in Seattle was a big one for them, but the fatigue of that long trip home combined with an inconsistent attack makes the Union the more likely play—especially with Austin having an eye on their Leagues Cup match in Toluca on Wednesday.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs FC Dallas pick: Draw
Life after Sebastian Berhalter isn't going as well as Vancouver hoped, and they had no answers in attack for Houston on Wednesday. Scoring goals shouldn't be an issue against a Dallas squad that doesn't mind getting into a track meet, but preventing them could be. Dallas has taken 20 points on the road, the most in the Western Conference, and Petar Musa is locked in. Look for him to add to his league-leading 16 goals as these clubs provide a highly entertaining contest with the teams sharing the spoils.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC pick: San Jose
Racking up 2.36 xG and failing to score is just nasty business, but it's what San Jose did against the Galaxy. It led to their fourth defeat in five, as they continue to slide down the table. Thankfully, they're in a good spot to pick up three points against a Minnesota that has not won in the league since May 2, a span of nine matches.
San Diego vs Colorado Rapids pick: Draw
San Diego have won just three of their last 17 matches in the league, and host a Colorado Rapids side that have claimed three straight victories by way of a clean sheet. The hosts' desperation to remain in the hunt for a playoff spot should be enough to get them a result, but not enough to end Colorado's unbeaten run.
LAFC vs Portland Timbers pick: Draw
LAFC managed just 0.41 xG against Colorado on Wednesday, as they heavily rotated their squad. That rotation may not be enough to take all three points against an improved Portland side, who have won the last two meetings and picked up 13 of 18 points over their last six matches. The Timbers will do enough to make this draw probability a great value play.
New England Revolution vs New York City FC pick: New England Revolution
The Revs got back to winning ways against DC United thanks to Alhassan Yusuf, whose hat trick saw them end a three-match winless streak. NYCFC have lost all confidence at the moment, losers of four straight in all competitions, and are not performing well defensively. Yusuf and new signing Jack Harrison will capitalize and help lead New England to victory.
Atlanta United vs Sporting KC pick: Atlanta United
Sporting KC will be thrilled with getting a point off their rivals midweek at home, but they're still the worst away side in MLS, having conceded 31 goals while scoring just seven. Atlanta's won two on the trot, and could pull themselves off the basement of the Eastern Conference with a win. The probability is a bit juicier than I'd like, but Atlanta are correctly favored and should find attacking success against this poor Sporting back line.
- Moneyline picks: 97-134, -7.64 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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