Today's matchup between the Connecticut Sun and the Atlanta Dream pits two teams that could use a win. Connecticut, a WNBA powerhouse, has lost two games in a row and will be looking to get back on track. Atlanta has dropped six of its last 10 games and will be motivated to nail out a victory.
Today marks the third matchup between these teams this season. The season opener in May and their mid-June showdown showcased a lopsided matchup where Connecticut proved too formidable.
Will we see more of the same in the third matchup? Find out in our WNBA betting picks and predictions for Sun vs. Dream.
Sun vs Dream odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks. Compare WNBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Sun vs Dream predictions
Predictions made on 6/26/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Sun vs Dream info
• Location: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, GA
• Date: Sunday, June 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video
Sun vs Dream betting preview
Key injuries
Sun: Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Dream: Erica Wheeler G (Questionable), Kristy Wallace G (Questionable), Nia Coffey F (Questionable), Kia Vaughn C (Out), Tiffany Hayes G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Sun's last six overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Dream.
Sun vs Dream picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Connecticut is dead even against the spread this season, at 9-9. Atlanta has fared better in that department, claiming a 10-6 record. The Sun have struggled of late, failing to cover the Over in five out of their last six games.
The Dream aren't playing their best basketball of late, but the recent emergence of former No. 2 overall pick Asia Durr gives them an exceptional talent moving forward. Durr missed two straight seasons due to COVID-19 complications. On Friday night, she scored a career-high 23 points and is averaging over 18 points per game over the last four games. She will be crucial for Atlanta if it wants to keep this game close and win it.
The Sun will look to counter whatever Burr throws at them as they bring a Top-5 offense and defense rating into this matchup. They are led by a trio of Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner, and Brionna Jones, each scoring over 14 points per game.
The Sun are second in points per game (84.9), second in field goal percentage (46.3), and first in 3-point percentage (36.6). When you combine this with their equally impressive defense, it has been a struggle for opposing teams.
Atlanta will have to anchor this game on the defensive side of the ball, where it currently has the best defensive rating in the WNBA. Atlanta’s Kia Vaughn, Erica Wheeler, and Megan Walker each rank Top 10 in player defensive rating.
That type of high-level individual defense makes them an attractive team daily, even when they aren’t winning. The Sun rank eighth in the league in turnovers, and we can expect the Dream, who get the second-most steals per game (8.5), to try and fluster them early and often.
While Connecticut will likely win this afternoon, Atlanta will battle to keep this one close enough.
Prediction: Dream +8 (-110 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under numbers for these teams have been close to even. Atlanta has an 8-9 O/U record, while the Sun are 9-8-1. Connecticut hasn't hit the Over in its last three matchups, and that has a lot to do with its relatively pedestrian scoring output in the previous three games, scoring a combined 222 points.
The defense of the Sun hasn't wavered, still holding teams to 81 points or fewer in that same period, but the scoring output must increase if they want to hit the Over in this matchup.
For a recently struggling offense like Connecticut, this matchup isn't the most ideal, as the Dream pride themselves on the defensive side of the ball. Their steals (8.5), opponents' points off turnovers (14.6), and opponents' points in the paint (27.5) per game all rank among the Top 3 in the WNBA.
Atlanta scored above its average of 78.1 points per game in the last two weeks, settling in at 87.4 points per game. The Sun have hit a bit of turbulence, averaging 82.3 over the same period, which is noticeably down from their season average.
Rhyme Howard and Durr are two names to keep a close eye out for in this one. Both can get hot and score a lot of points. Howard has had multiple games this year in which her scoring output was evident, including a 25-point game against the Phoenix Mercury and a 33-point game in May against the Indiana Fever.
Atlanta will fight hard to avoid losing three straight to Connecticut, and the defensive intensity will be evident from the tip-off. Choose the Under!
Prediction: Under 160.5 (-110 at PointsBet)
Best bet
The Sun have been the most consistent team in the WNBA this year, as evident by their No. 1 ranking in the standings. They possess elite players on the ball's offensive and defensive side, making it very challenging for opposing teams to keep up.
While they have run into their first two-game losing streak of the season, they will continue to use their balanced scoring attack to counter the Dreams' tough defense. Connecticut currently has five players scoring in double figures this season, with two shooting over 50% from the field.
Atlanta's offense will have a hard time scoring, which it has had all year. The Dream have a 95.2 offensive rating, ranking last in the WNBA. In its most recent matchup against the Liberty, Atlanta scored 77 points and only 13 fourth-quarter points against a team that ranks seventh in defensive rating.
Take the Sun to get back on track and win this one outright.
Pick: Sun moneyline (-375 at FanDuel)
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