New York Liberty vs Los Angeles Sparks Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Snuffing Out the Fire

WNBA bettors find themselves in a rare situation Sunday afternoon with the New York Liberty coming off a loss when they travel West to take on the Los Angeles Sparks.

New York suffered just its sixth defeat of the 2023 season last time out, losing to a shorthanded Minnesota team missing its best player. The Liberty once again fell behind — a bad habit forming in recent outings — and couldn’t rally for the win.

Los Angeles is also without one of its top players in Lexie Brown, who is once again sidelined (illness) along with other members of the L.A. backcourt. The Sparks are coming off back-to-back home wins over Indiana, snapping an eight-game skid that saw the team struggling against top-tier competition.

I size up the point spread and Over/Under total for this coast-to-coast clash and give my best WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty at Sparks on July 30.

Liberty vs Sparks best odds

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Liberty vs Sparks picks and predictions

The Liberty have been a tough pill for WNBA bettors to swallow, with their lofty expectations puffing up point spreads all season.

New York’s offense has really started to click, with stars like Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Jonquel Jones all finding their fit over the past month. But the lack of effort on the defensive end is burning NYC backers.

Friday’s loss to Minnesota looks bad, especially when you consider the Liberty were laying 13.5 points against a Lynx team missing All-Star Napheesa Collier.

However, lost in that criticism is the fact that New York was playing its second straight game in 24 hours with rare back-to-back outings on the schedule (make-up game for postponement due to wildfire smoke in June). New York also sat out starting point guard Courtney Vandersloot for rest reasons, benching its top facilitator in an offense that leads the WNBA in assist-to-FG ratio.

The Liberty looked disjointed on offense, finishing the night shooting just 36% from the floor, including 10-for-35 from beyond the arc. That’s not to take away from Minnesota, which has a very promising roster around Collier, and played hard without its superstar in action.

“We’ve had many games where we were able to come back from this, but tonight was another example where, if we don’t come from the start and bring our A-game, we’re gonna get beat,” Ionescu told reporters after the loss to the Lynx.

The Liberty are bringing that A-game to L.A. tonight, coming off that rare loss. New York is 4-1 against the spread in those spots this season, will have the full starting lineup in action, and faces a Sparks team that has struggled to keep pace with strong opponents.

Before beating up on Indiana in back-to-back meetings (Fever missing standout NaLyssa Smith), Los Angeles had dropped eight straight games (0-7-1 ATS) and came up short against tough foes like Atlanta, Dallas, and Las Vegas.

Without Lexie Brown (illness) in the backcourt, the Sparks offense has faceplanted and additional injuries in the backcourt have compounded scoring woes for Curt Miller’s team. Los Angeles is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 run-ins against teams with winning records.

The defense has also folded against stronger scoring attacks like the Aces, Wings, and Dream, and New York is an extremely tough team to game plan for due to its multiple options and ball movement. Los Angeles' thin backcourt has had a tough time slowing opponents down on the fast break and New York has shown it's just as potent scoring points off the fast break as it is in the halfcourt set.

My WNBA power ratings produced a spread of Liberty -8.25 before making the adjustment for Brown being out of the L.A. lineup again. She’s a transformative player for this Sparks team, especially on offense, which is something Los Angeles needs a lot of against this loaded Liberty side. I’m grabbing New York as low as I can get it on Sunday morning.

My best bet: New York Liberty -8.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Liberty vs Sparks spread and Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers opened New York as an 8.5-point road favorite and that spread jumped to -9 shortly after with L.A. ruling out starting guard Lexie Brown along with top reserve Chiney Ogwumike. This line has since climbed to as high as Liberty -9.5 at some shops as of Sunday morning.

My WNBA power rating produced an unadjusted spread of New York -8.25 before factor Brown’s absence, who is very valuable to a Sparks offense that has ranked among the worst in the WNBA without her in action this season.

Brown’s lift in the backcourt is notable, with the speedy guard able to push passes and give L.A. range from the perimeter. In the dozen games with her in the lineup, Los Angeles owns an offensive rating of 105.5 versus a drop to 95.1 with Brown sidelined.

The Sparks, who have had Brown available just three times in the past 15 games, currently sit 10th in the 12-team league in offensive rating and are overpowered on that end of the floor against a star-studded New York cast that ranks No. 2 in that advanced metric.

The Liberty have a wealth of offensive options and scoring hasn’t been a problem. Defensive intensity, on the other hand, has cost New York bettors dearly in recent weeks. The team owns a rough 10-14 ATS count on the season and has managed to cover the spread only twice in the past nine games.

Much like Friday’s 88-83 upset loss to Minnesota, which closed as a 13.5-point underdog, New York’s defense has done little to help the cause. The Liberty are allowing 86.7 points per game in that nine-game span, lugging a defensive rating of 104.6 compared to 98.9 in the 15 games prior.

This defensive lull has led to Over results for totals bettors, with New York topping the number in seven of those nine outings and bringing a 16-8 Over/Under mark into this road matchup in Los Angeles.

The Sparks are 11-13 O/U on the season and have stayed below the closing total in four of their last six games overall.

Today’s total opened at 165.5 points and has jumped to as high as 168 at some sportsbooks as of Sunday morning. According to our Covers Consensus, 61% of the bets are coming in on the Over for this non-conference contest.

Liberty vs Sparks betting trend to know

The New York Liberty are 4-1 ATS in their last five games coming off a loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sparks.

Liberty vs Sparks game info

Liberty vs Sparks key injuries

Liberty: Stefanie Dolson C (Out), Han Xu C (Out).
Sparks: Lexie Brown G (Questionable), Chiney Ogwumike F (Out), Nia Clouden G (Out), Katie Lou Samuelson F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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