New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Sky Won't Fall Without a Fight

The New York Liberty have rattled off three straight wins since their season-opening loss, and they are adding yet another star to the mix. The Chicago Sky can look on only in envy, as injuries have beset their roster. Naturally, the Liberty are a heavy favorite tonight to tip off the WNBA weekend.

Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs Sky on June 2.

Liberty vs Sky best odds

Liberty vs Sky picks and predictions

This best bet is a value play. It is an attempt at predicting the exact flow of this game, and if that prediction comes true, then there will be distinct value in it. There is also an alternative, more conservative play inherent to this thought, so even if the predicted flow worries you, stick around and ponder the overall concept.

The Chicago Sky are becoming increasingly short-handed. The Sky have until this weekend to add players to the roster, otherwise they'll fall below the WNBA’s minimum roster requirements. Losing Rebekah Gardner and Megan Bertsch for the time being will cost Chicago a pair of contributors. The Sky exceeded expectations in the first game without them, beating the Dallas Wings by six as only a three-point favorite, but then the attrition begin to catch up on Tuesday, falling by 18 at the Atlanta Dream.

The last time the Dream won a game that handily was exactly 366 days earlier, beating the then short-handed Phoenix Mercury by 27.

Chicago fell apart entirely against Atlanta, but the Sky have now had three days to readjust and prepare for some time without those players. Prior to that collapse, Chicago had been a decent first-half team this season, leading Dallas by four at the break and Phoenix by six, covering both first-half spreads. In between, the Sky had trailed the Mystics by six at halftime, losing to the spread that day.

Rectifying the botched first half against the Dream has assuredly been a focus this week for Chicago, and the New York Liberty may represent a chance to prove that. New York has gone only 1-3 ATS in the first half this season, and now it adds in French point guard Marine Johannes. She is unquestionably a talent, but if she disrupts the Liberty’s already tenuous early-season chemistry, that could play into the Sky’s favor.

To be clear, that chemistry is not tenuous because of any friction or such. It is simply a rehauled roster early in a season with massive expectations. Developing that chemistry has been part of the first-half struggles. New York is not so much playing with its food as it is pushing it around to find its best look for an Instagram photo.

Eventually, the Liberty will eat. In this exact instance, the Sky’s short bench should catch up to it late, which could turn a close game into a relatively-easy win, something the final score may not accurately reflect.

New York has gone just 2-2 outright in its first halves this season, and that is where the value on this best bet comes in. The cautious approach is to simply take Chicago +6 in the first half and collect some early winnings. But the value comes with thinking the Sky could outright steal the first half while trusting the Liberty to win the game.

If Chicago has steadied its headspace this week, and if New York lets Johannes get some early run, then a Sky's halftime lead would set up a Liberty win at +575, and there will be few moments this season that feature that kind of number next to a New York victory.

For full transparency, this handicapper is placing a quarter of a unit on the value play and protecting it with 0.75 units on Chicago to cover the first-half spread.

My best bet: Sky to win 1H, Liberty to win game double result (+575 at Caesars)

Liberty vs Sky spread and Over/Under analysis

The WNBA odds makers may have leaned too far against the Sky's injuries by opening this line with the Liberty favored by 10.5 or 11, depending on the book. As of Friday afternoon, that has been knocked down to -9.5, a number that does not entirely vibe with the halftime mark of -6.

That discrepancy likely ties to a presumed garbage-time cover risk, but it still adds further fuel to the thought of value on both the early Chicago spread and halftime moneyline. To reiterate, New York is just 1-3 ATS in the first half this season.

The total opened at 162.5 on Thursday before falling as low as 158.5 at some books on Friday. Credit that fall to those Sky injuries. Chicago is just going to run out of energy late. It is already a team skewing toward the Under this year, going 1-4 with those four Unders falling short of their pregame totals by an average of 16.75 points.

Liberty vs Sky betting trend to know

The Sky were 4-0 ATS before injuries caught up to them at Atlanta on Tuesday, and those four covers had come by an average of 7.9 points. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Sky.

Liberty vs Sky game info

Liberty vs Sky key injuries

Liberty: Marine Johannes G (Probable).
Sky: Rebekah Gardner G (Out), Morgan Bertsch F (Out), Li Yueru F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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