The Connecticut Sun will hope a trip home can help break a five-game losing streak as they host the Phoenix Mercury on Friday night.
Phoenix recently got a boost at the trade deadline, and I'm taking it to cover in my Mercury vs. Sun predictions below. Read on to get my full analysis and a Kelsey Plum prop in my free WNBA picks for Friday, August 7.
Mercury vs Sun prediction
Mercury vs Sun best bet: Mercury -6.5 (-105)
The Phoenix Mercury are looking to make a playoff run, and a date with the Connecticut Sun will help. The Sun have lost five straight, with four of those losses coming by at least eight points.
Connecticut is dead last in scoring (79.8 ppg), point differential (-7.5), and effective field goal percentage (47.3%).
The Mercury have seen their offense improve with Kelsey Plum on the roster. They've averaged 94.0 ppg in her first two contests, while shooting 45.7% from the floor in those games.
I'm taking this improved Phoenix team to cover spread up to -7.5 points tonight.
COVERS INTEL: The Sun have the worst foul rate (25.2%) in the WNBA, which will be a serious issue against a Mercury team that leads the league in free throw rate (20.2%).
Mercury vs Sun same-game parlay
The Sun are the worst offensive team in the WNBA, ranking dead last in the league in offensive rating (99.0) by a wide margin. And while Phoenix looks better offensively with Plum on the court, they're still 12th in the league in offensive rating themselves (105.2).
Both teams are bottom six in the league in pace metrics as well, leading me to back the Under tonight.
I'm also taking Plum to get Over her made threes total of 1.5. Plum is averaging 2.5 made threes per game this season, and has made four in her first two games with the Mercury.
With Connecticut allowing opponents to shoot 35.8% from deep, Plum is a good bet to make at least a couple threes tonight.
Mercury vs Sun SGP
- Mercury -6.5
- Under 173.5
- Kelsey Plum Over 1.5 made threes
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Mercury vs Sun player prop pick
Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 points (-106)
If Plum had been healthy all year, she'd rank third in the WNBA in scoring at 23.3 ppg. While her numbers might slide a bit on Phoenix, where she'll have to share the scoring load with Kahleah Copper (21.0 ppg), her production should still be well above the 17.5-point total set for her tonight.
Plum has scored 19.5 ppg in her first two appearances for the Mercury. Connecticut isn't a strong defensive team either — their 108.4 defensive rating is sixth-worst in the league — and Plum should get enough shots to hit the Over on this low total.
- Best bet: 16-23, -8.22 units
- SGP: 5-34, -5.21 units
- Player prop: 14-5, +8.09 units
Mercury vs Sun odds
- Spread: Mercury -6.5 (-110) | Sun +6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Mercury -250 | Sun +205
- Over/Under: Over 173.5 (-110) | Under 173.5 (-110)
Mercury vs Sun trend
The Sun are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Mercury vs Sun
| Location | Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT |
| Date | Friday, August 7, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ION |
Mercury vs Sun latest injuries
Mercury: None.
Sun: Raegan Beers (Out), Brittney Griner (Questionable)
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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