The Golden State Valkyries protected home court, and a narrow win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 2 has the V’s just one victory away from a trip to the WNBA Finals.
The series shifts back to Michelob Ultra Arena for Game 3 on Oct. 9, and my WNBA picks & Valkyries vs. Aces prediction call for the home team to play with unprecedented desperation and deliver a win to extend its season.
Read on to see why I’m picking the Aces to get off to a hot start with a first-half cover and why I’m backing the Aces’ Big Three of A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young to hit the Over on their scoring and assist lines.
TOP PICK
Valkyries vs Aces prediction: Aces -1.5 First Half
The Las Vegas Aces kept things close in the first half of Game 1, going into the break down three before ultimately losing by eight. In Game 2, Las Vegas flipped the script and went down 11 at the break. The Aces won the second half 50-41, but it was too little too late.
Head coach Becky Hammon said after the game: "We battled back and gave ourselves a shot after a really abysmal first half, especially offensively.” She’ll make sure to get her team focused in the first half of Game 3.
The Aces finished the regular season ranked third in first-half margin at +4.7 overall and +5.5 at home. Las Vegas was seventh in second-half margin at +0.2 overall and 10th at home at just -0.6. The difference in point differential highlights the Aces’ need to avoid another slow start.
I’ll trade this to 3.5.
COVERS INTEL: A’ja Wilson led the WNBA in first-half scoring at 12.8 ppg, and Jackie Young finished fourth at 10.3. The pair led an Aces scoring attack that posted the second-most first-half points at 47.3 per tilt.
Valkyries vs Aces combo
I’m going back to the well for a third straight game with A'ja Wilson’s points line, and I’ll trade it to 45%. She was awarded a record-setting fifth MVP on Thursday, and the W’s most decorated player surely won’t go down without a fight.
Wilson has scored 35+ points in three straight elimination games dating back to last season, and the motivation to avoid a sweep will push her Over her point total.
Chelsea Gray’s scoring line makes a perfect addition to this combo at 69%. Gray averaged 12 ppg in the regular season, and she scored 10+ in 29 of 43 games.
She averaged 13.4 ppg at home and hit the Over on this line in 18 of 22 appearances at Michelob Ultra Arena. Gray has scored in double figures in all five playoff games, and I’ll trade this one up to 11.5.
Valkyries vs Aces combo
- Aces -1.5 First Half Spread
- A’ja Wilson Over 29.5 points
- Chelsea Gray Over 9.5 points
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Top picks: 38-46, -12.90 units
- Combos: 9-75, -28.03 units
Valkyries vs Aces odds
- Spread: Valkyries +3.5 | Aces -3.5
- Moneyline: Valkyries 38% | Aces 63%
- Over/Under: Over 156.5 | Under 156.5
Valkyries vs Aces trend
Las Vegas is 14-9 ATS as home favorite this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Valkyries vs Aces
| Location | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 9, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock |
Valkyries vs Aces latest injuries
Valkyries: No injuries to report.
Aces: Jewell Loyd (Questionable), Stephanie Talbot (Questionable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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