Liberty vs Wings Picks and Predictions: Dallas Takes Flight Against Rudderless Foes

The New York Liberty are crumbling and have an uphill battle to reach the postseason, which includes a pair of games against the Wings. Even without leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale, however, Dallas isn't a pushover and our betting picks like them to cover.

Last Updated: Aug 8, 2022 8:53 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Allisha Gray Dallas Wings WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

With only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, the New York Liberty are clinging to their fading playoff hopes. If they want any chance at all of making the postseason, they’ll have to get it done tonight against a surging Dallas Wings team.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Wings highlight New York’s one-dimensional offense as the weakness that will ultimately sink it against this solid Dallas team.

Liberty vs Wings odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Wings opened between -3.5 and -4.5 points from most sportsbooks. The total opened as high as 161.5 and has dropped as far as 160 at the time of writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.

Liberty vs Wings predictions

Predictions made on 8/8/2022 at 4:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Liberty vs Wings info

Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
Date: Monday, August 8, 2022
Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET

Liberty vs Wings betting preview

Key injuries

Liberty: Natasha Howard F (Doubtful).
Wings: Arike Ogunbowale G (Out), Satou Sabally F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Wings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Wings.

Liberty vs Wings picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Despite a lot of promising pieces and a budding young superstar, the New York Liberty’s season is on life support. They’re a half-game behind both the Atlanta Dream and Phoenix Mercury for the final playoff spots with four games remaining, two each against the Wings and the Dream. If they can beat Dallas twice, they’ll control their own destiny heading into the final weekend of the season. But that’s a pretty tall order, as this Wings team has looked better and better as the season comes to a close.

Though they had to scrape by for an overtime win against the Indiana Fever, the Wings' win against the Las Vegas Aces in the game prior to that should bolster Dallas’ reputation as better than their overall record suggests. They also remain monsters against the spread, now up to 19-12-1 on the season, and are 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Liberty are a mere 4-6, with two of those wins coming against the imploding Los Angeles Sparks.

Just like Dallas was well suited to take the Aces out of their game plan, they should do so again against New York. The Liberty are in many ways a less talented, less balanced version of that Aces team, and the Wings' emphasis on perimeter defense might spell doom for the Liberty’s postseason hopes.

Dallas can beat you in multiple ways, but their preference is to attack inside. The Wings get a lot of mileage out of their aggression, leading the “W” in free-throw attempt rate, which should prove effective against the foul-prone Liberty. Dallas also emphasizes offensive rebounding, and its 32.5 OREB% ranks second in the league. Stefanie Dolson will have her hands full on the defensive glass, and the Liberty might be reluctant to run as much as they’d like if they’re focusing on defensive boards.

The Wings' defensive weakness is the right at the rim. They allow more points in the paint than all but two other teams. But are the Liberty capable of turning that fault line into a fissure? Unlikely. They rank dead last in points in the paint per game and are utterly devoted to winning on the perimeter. That singlemindedness has been a huge detriment to their offensive efficiency, and until they find ways to score inside more consistently, they’ll remain a below-average offense no matter how good Sabrina gets.

And that’s a shame because Sabrina is already so, so good. She just became the first WNBA player ever to total 500 points, 200 rebounds, and 200 assists in a single season. Damn impressive work for the third-year point guard.

But Dallas has been the better team, both in this recent stretch and all year long. I like them to cover.

Prediction: Wings -3.5 (-125 at BetVictor)

Over/Under analysis

I don’t envy the oddsmakers when it comes to setting totals for the New York Liberty. Sabrina Ionescu is a model of consistency, but you truly don’t know what you’re getting from this team on any given night outside of her. They’re more than capable of pushing for the Over on their own if some of Ionescu's teammates can get loose, but the Under is 6-2 in New York’s last eight games for a reason. It’s still a rare enough thing that they come together as a cohesive offensive force.

The Liberty are a fairly one-dimensional team. They bomb away from downtown and do little else on offense. Generously, it's had mixed results, as their almost shockingly bad 97.9 offensive rating demonstrates.

Arike Ogunbowale’s absence must be priced in here as well. She’s the Wings' best offensive player, and even though they’ve managed well in her few missed games, her presence would have pushed me to bet the Over. She’d be Dallas' prime candidate to meet the Liberty’s perimeter challenge with glee and fire away in return. The Wings just aren’t as apt to score as much or as effectively without Ogunbowale.

This is a low total, and trending even lower, but not yet low enough to my eyes. It helps that these are also two of the four slowest teams by pace.

Prediction: Under 160.0 (-110 at 888sport)

Best bet

This Liberty team hasn’t won a road game in over a month, and — historically speaking — they’ve particularly struggled in Dallas. Over the last few seasons, they’ve accumulated a dire 2-10 ATS record on the road against the Wings.

While the criticisms of so-called jump shooting teams are mostly just reactionary nonsense more to do with aesthetic preferences than on-court results, in the Liberty’s case, some criticism is merited. They opt to do one thing on offense, and they don’t even do that one thing at an elite level. 

Shooting is traditionally one of the last elements of a team's game to travel, and that’s reflected in New York’s struggles away from the Empire State.

PickWings -3.5 (-125 at BetVictor)

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